JAN 19 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

 

 

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1920gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was lower this past week, as we reached a low of 1536.40, closing at 1560.30, almost unchanged for the week.  

                                                                               

On the Daily Gold Chart we have added our current internal count for wave *v*.

 

We have now adopted our alternate count where only wave $i$ of *v* ended at the 1613.30 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$.

 

Retracement levels for both options are shown in our Daily Gold Chart. At the moment the current low for this wave $ii$ drop is 1536.40, which is short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 1529.60…. so further weakness is still possible before all of wave $ii$ ends.

 

The good news: In silver and the GDX, these markets have already reached their retracement zones, so it could be possible that all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 1536.40 low and wave $iii$ high is now beginning.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave *v* and .iii. is:

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40.                  

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!    

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1920si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was lower this past week as we reached a low of 17.69, closing at 18.07.

                                                                  

Within wave .iii. we are now rallying in wave ^iii^, which has an initial target of:

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44.      

 

Within wave ^iii^ all of wave $i$ ended at the 18.89 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, which entered our retracement zone this week with our 17.69 low.

 

Our retracement level for all of wave $ii$ are shown in our Daily Silver Chart. It could now be possible that all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 17.69 low and that we started to rally sharply higher in wave $iii$ of ^iii^.    

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 26.09.   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was lower this past week as we reached a low of 1.780, closing at 1.836{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of our wave (iv) correction is still underway as it has become a complex 3 wave pattern, that includes a bullish wave *b* triangle formation, which could be complete at the 1.766{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

If this analysis is correct, we should be rallying in our wave *c* final thrust higher which should at least reach the 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high to complete all of wave (iv).

 

Once wave (iv) ends we expect a wave (v) drop to at least reach the 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low but more likely the 1.00{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1920oil.png

 

Crude was lower this past week as we reached a low of 57.36, closing at 58.58.                                     

 

Within wave (b) bearish triangle, we are now falling in wave .d.. We expect wave .d. should at reach our lower red trendline that defines the boundaries of our bearish wave (b) triangle before it ends.

 

This level is around the 52.00/53.00 level. Wave .d. is expected to be a corrective pattern that includes at least one 3 wave pattern.

 

Once wave .d. ends we expect another rally in wave .e. to complete all of the wave (b) bearish triangle.

 

We will take profits at the end of wave .d..

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1920sun.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was higher this past week reaching a high of 34.56, closing at 33.61.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all or most of wave -c- of (ii) is complete at the 34.56 high and that we should start to move sharply lower in wave (iii) very soon.  

 

Longer term, our current count for Suncor is suggesting that we are now heading back to the wave a low of 13.10. We have completed wave b of B at the 42.27 high, and are now falling in wave c of B. This count is suggesting that crude will likely he heading back to the 26.05 low also, which is our preferred count in wave b also.

 

Wave c will likely be impulsive which means it will have a 5 wave structure on its way down.   

 

Active Positions: Short crude with a call as a stop. Short Suncor, risking to $36.00!                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1920sp.png

       

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 3329.88, closing at 3329.62.  

 

Our current preferred count is that wave v of V is not complete and is now heading substantiality higher. It looks like wave v is subdividing and in this case we are rallying in wave -iii- of (iii), with wave -ii- likely ending at the 2825.51 low.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is: 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3711.83.

 

We are eliminating our bearish count, and exiting our short position.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1920usd.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week as we reached a high of 97.41, closing at 97.36.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) is now complete at the 99.33 high and that our wave (iii) drop has now started.

 

We need to see a sharp drop below our lower red trendline that is shown on our Weekly USDX Chart to convince us that al of wave (ii) is complete, at the 99.33 high.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 100.00!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1920cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially lower this past week, reaching a low of 571.42, but we recovered most of that, to close at 584.50!

 

We have updated our CDNX Weekly Chart to suggest that we are still falling in wave -v-, which has minimum target of 487.01, which is the wave -iii- low, before all of wave B ends.

 

We have updated our current short term count for the CDNX to suggest that we are still working on wave .iv., as it has become a flat type correction.

 

Within wave .iv. we are now rallying -c- of .iv., which has a minimum target of 641.50, which is the wave -a- of .iv. high.

Once wave .iv. ends we still expect one more drop in wave .v. below the 487.01 low to complete all of wave B.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1920gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 27.68, closing at 28.42, almost unchanged on the week.

 

We continue to rally in wave (v), but it looks like all of wave -i- of (v) is complete at the 29.87 high and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which has retracement level that are shown on our 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

We have now entered our retracement level for all of wave -iii-, so it might be possible that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 27.68 low, and that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-.

 

Our wave (v) rally that has a current target of 48.95, which is the wave 3 projected target as follows:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95.

 

Our alternate bullish count is suggesting that only wave -iv- of (iii) likely ended at the 25.98 low and that we are starting to rally in wave -v of (iii) which has a target of 36.42.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew