may 21 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2120cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 948.73 and closing on its high of 948.73!

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$ at the 902.30 low and the start of a major rally in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

We updated our long-term HUI chart, and here it is!

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2120hui.png

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2120gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2120gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 39.80, closing at 39.51!

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we continue to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has a current projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.70     

 

Within wave -iii-, we now be rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 42.70.

 

On our 60 Min Intraday Chart we have shown a possible internal wave count for all of wave $iii$.  This count is suggesting that all of wave !iv! of $iii$ ended 38.60, but our current wave !iii! rally appears to be too short relative to wave !i!.

 

Based on what we have shown the next move in this market will be higher in wave !v! to $iii$ heading to our 42.70 projected endpoint, but we do have concerns about the shortness of our current wave !iii! of $iii$.

 

Wave $iii$ count be subdividing even further, which is very bullish!!

 

For now, we will leave this count as is but expect it will be modified.  

 

We believe our test of the 39.01 resistance level is now complete and we should now be heading higher again, to our next resistance of 41.13/41.81.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will be updating our long term gold charts this week (May 17th):

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. WE are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2120gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in yesterday’s day and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 1882.30 level!

 

On the Intraday Chart gold appears to be working on a bullish triangle formation which is suggesting a sharp thrust higher may be imminent.       

 

We continue to rally in and extending wave -iii- which should be heading to our next projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 1952.40.

 

On our Daily Gold Chart we have shown the likely subdivisions for all of wave -iii- and within wave -iii- we are now working on wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 1938.10.

 

We have also now broken above our major green downtrend line connecting 2077.90 and 1962.50. Gold has lots of resistance levels to break at these prices and our next horizontal resistance is at the 1879 level.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2120si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 27.84 level!

 

Like gold: On the Intraday Chart silver appears to be working on a bullish triangle formation which is suggesting a sharp thrust higher is imminent.

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*.

 

We have failed to stay above the 28.10/28.50 resistance level on this first attempt, but we suspect that this setback will be temporary. Our next challenge to the 28.10/28.50 resistance level will be successful and then after that we are heading to our next resistance level at 29.91/30.35.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2120bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.618%!

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2120spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2120sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4121.97. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are higher by about 18 points!

 

All of wave -v- of (iii) is now complete at 4236.39 high. We are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

The expected drop in wave (iv) should be between 300 and 550 points.

 

It is still to early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (iv) is going to develop into.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Short will calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2120usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued for most of the overnight session as we have reached a low of 89.64.

 

After that low was made we rallied somewhat to recover some of those losses to currently be trading at the 89.92 level.

 

We continue to fall in wave -v- and are starting to get close to our minimum target for its completion at the 89.17 low. On the Intraday Chart the small rally from 89.68 to the current high of 90.28 looks corrective which is suggesting lower prices lie ahead after this corrective rally ends. We suspect it will fall much further, however.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2120oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued for most of the overnight session as we reached a low of 61.56. After that low was made we recovered most of those losses to currently be trading at the 63.12 level.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, as we continue to rally higher in an incomplete wave ^b^, although it may now be complete at the 67.00 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

may 20 morning post!

 

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2021cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 929.57, closing at 936.61!

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$ at the 902.30 low and the start of a major rally in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2021gdx60-1.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2021gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 40.13, but we closed lower at 39.04.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we continue to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-.

 

Based on the internal wave structure for wave -iii- we now believe we are subdividing which is suggesting that a higher initial target is in order for wave -iii- which is now:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.70!    

 

Within wave -iii-, we now be rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 42.70!

 

On our 60 Min Intraday Chart we shown a possible internal wave count for all of wave $iii$.  This count is suggesting that all of wave !iv! of $iii$ ended at yesterday’s low of 38.60, but our current wave !iii! rally appears to be too short relative to wave !i!. Based on what we have shown the next move in this market will be higher in wave !v! to $iii$ heading to our 42.70 projected endpoint, but we do have concerns about the shortness of our current wave !iii! of $iii$. For now we will leave this count as is but expect it will be modified  

 

We did successfully test the 39.01 resistance level again in yesterday’s trading as we had suggested in yesterday’s post. Our next resistance is the 41.13/41.81 level.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will be updating our long-term gold charts this week (May 17th):

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2021gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1891.30. After that high was made we moved down to 1862.40.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1879.50!

 

On the Intraday Chart gold appears to be working on a bullish triangle formation which is suggesting a sharp move higher may be imminent!                                                                                          

 

We continue to rally in and extending wave -iii- which should be heading to our next projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 1952.40.

 

On our Daily Gold Chart we have shown the likely subdivisions for all of wave -iii- and within wave -iii- we are now working on wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 1938.10.

 

We have also now broken above our major green downtrend line connecting 2077.90 and 1962.50. Gold has lots of resistance levels to break at these prices and our next horizontal resistance is at the 1879 level.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2021si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 28.36.

 

In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 27.90 level.

 

On the Intraday Chart silver appears to be working on a bullish triangle formation which is suggesting a sharp rally higher is imminent.

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*.

 

We have failed to stay above the 28.10/28.50 resistance level on this first attempt, but we suspect that this setback will be temporary. Our next challenge to the 28.10/28.50 resistance level will be successful and then after that we are heading to our next resistance level at 29.91/30.35.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2021bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 1.692%. In overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.652%!

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2021spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2021sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4061.41. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are lower by about 6 points.

 

All of wave -v- of (iii) is now complete at 4236.39 high. We are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

The expected drop in wave (iv) should be between 300 and 550 points.

 

It is still to early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (iv) is going to develop into.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Short with calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short with calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2021sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 90.28!

 

We continue to fall in wave -v- and are starting to get close to our minimum target for its completion at the 89.17 low.

 

On the Intraday Chart the small rally from 89.68 to the current high of 90.28 looks corrective which is suggesting lower prices lie ahead after this corrective rally ends.

 

We suspect it will fall much further, however.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2021oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 61.98. In the overnight session we have traded sideways currently trading at the 62.38 level.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, as we continue to rally higher in an incomplete wave ^b^, although it may now be complete at the 67.00 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

 

may 19 morning post!

 

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1921cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 950.05, closing at 948.15!

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$ at the 902.30 low and the start of a major rally in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1921gdx60.png

 

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1921gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was a bit lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 39.03, closing at 39.63.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we continue to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-. Based on the internal wave structure for wave -iii- we now believe we are subdividing which is suggesting that a higher initial target is in order for wave -iii- which is now:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.70     

 

Within wave -iii-, we now be rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 42.70.

 

We have now broken through the 39.01 resistance level and we did get our test of that breakout. We are not sure whether another test of 39.01 resistance level may occur early today, before we start to move higher again. Yesterday’s test was successful. Our next resistance is the 41.13/41.81 level.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will be updating our long term gold charts this week (May 17th):

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1921gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1853.20.                                                                                       

 

We continue to rally in and extending wave -iii- which should be heading to our next projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 1952.40!!

 

On our Daily Gold Chart we have shown the likely subdivisions for all of wave -iii- and within wave -iii- we are now working on wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 1938.10.

 

We have now broken through resistance at the 1856.60 level  but it looks like we have fallen back to test this breakout in the overnight session. We have also now broken above our major green downtrend line connecting 2077.90 and 1962.50. We cannot rule the possibility that gold could drop back to that line to test it also, before we move sharply higher again. Gold has lots of resistances levels to break and test at this point in our rally. Next horizontal resistance at the 1879 level.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1921si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 27.46!

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*.

 

We have failed to stay above the 28.10/28.50 resistance level on this first attempt, but we suspect that this setback will be temporary. After we finally break and stay above the 28.10/28.50 resistance level our next resistance level at 29.91/30.35.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay21bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.671!

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1921spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1921sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4125.99. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are sharply lower by about 44 points!

 

All of wave -v- of (iii) is now complete at 4236.39 high. We are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

The expected drop in wave (iv) should be between 300 and 550 points.

 

It is still to early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (iv) is going to develop into.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Short will calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1921usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 89.68. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 90.07!

 

We continue to fall in wave -v- and are starting to get close to our minimum target for its completion at the 89.17 low. We suspect it will fall much further, however.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1921oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 64.06!

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, as we continue to rally higher in an incomplete wave ^b^, although it may now be complete at the 67.00 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

may 18 xau update

XAU Chart Update From The Captain!!

Please click here: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821xau.png

Also, for you those of you who are fans of traditional flag and pennant patterns, please click here:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821xau2.png Editor Stu adds a bull pennant to the chart, and these tend to fly a “half mast”… which is in sync with the Captain’s massive C wave upside forecast!

Have a golden day!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

may 18 morning post!

 UPDATED XAU CHART COMING LATER THIS MORNING!

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821cndx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 942.97 and closing on its high of 942.97!

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$ at the 902.30 low and the start of a major rally in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821gdxd.png

  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 39.90, closing at 39.68!

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we continue to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-. Based on the internal wave structure for wave -iii- we now believe we are subdividing which is suggesting that a higher initial target is in order for wave -iii- which is now:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.70     

 

Within wave -iii-, we now be rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 42.70.

 

We have now broken through the 39.01 resistance, but we would not be surprised if we tested that breakout in the next day or so before we head higher. Our next resistance is the 41.13/41.81 level.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will be updating our long term gold charts this week (May 17th):

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1875.90!                                                

 

We continue to rally in and extending wave -iii- which should be heading to our next projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 1952.40!

 

On our Daily Gold Chart we have shown the likely subdivisions for all of wave -iii- and within wave -iii- we are now working on wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 1938.10!

 

We have now broken through resistance at the 1856.60 level with next resistance at the 1879 level which are fast approaching.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 28.89!

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*.

 

We have now broken through our 28.10/28.50 resistance level and are now heading to our resistance level at 29.91/30.35.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 1.642% level!

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4142.69.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 9 points.

 

All of wave -v- of (iii) is now complete at 4236.39 high. We are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

The expected drop in wave (iv) should be between 300 and 550 points.

 

It is still to early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (iv) is going to develop into.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Short will calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 89.74!

 

We continue to fall in wave -v- and are starting to get close to our minimum target for its completion at the 89.17 low. We suspect it will fall much further, however.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session we have reached a high of 67.00!

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, as we continue to rally higher in an incomplete wave ^b^, although it may now be complete at the 67.00 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

may 17 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1721cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 931.38, closing on its high of 931.08!

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

It now looks like wave $ii$ is still underway, as it appears to have become a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on the Daily CDNX Chart.

 

We did reach our minimum target of 909.06, so we now need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$ at the 902.30 low and the start of a major rally in wave $iii$.

 

We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1721gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1721gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 37.94, closing at 37.84!

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we continue to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-. Based on the internal wave structure for wave -iii- we now believe we are subdividing which is suggesting that a higher initial target is in order for wave -iii- which is now:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.70     

 

Within wave -iii-, we are now working on the assumption that all of wave $ii$ ended at the 34.31 low. We should therefore now be rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 42.70.

 

On the 60 Min Intraday Chart we appear to have completed a corrective pattern from the 38.22 high to the 36.43 low.

 

If this corrective pattern is complete at the 36.43 low then this market is moving higher again likely heading to first resistance at 38.22 and then to our next short term resistance at 39.01.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will be updating our long term gold charts this week (May 17th):

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1721gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1855.90!                                                                                            

 

We continue to rally in and extending wave -iii- which should be heading to our next projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 1952.40.

 

We still expect higher prices within wave -iii- as we have now broken through resistance at the 1845/1846 level and are now heading to our next resistance level which is 1856.60, which we look to have recached in the overnight session.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1721si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 27.89!

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52!

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*.

 

We expect higher prices with next resistance at the 28.10/28.50 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1721bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the  overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.605%!

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1721spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1721sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was sharply higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 4183.13. … But in the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 22 points!

 

All of wave -v- of (iii) is now complete at 4236.39 high. We are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

The expected drop in wave (iv) should be between 300 and 550 points.

 

It is still to early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (iv) is going to develop into.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Short will calls as stops!

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1721usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 90.16!

 

We continue to fall in wave -v-.  

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1721oil.png

 

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session we have reached a high of 65.72!

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, as we continue to rally higher in an incomplete wave ^b^, although it may now be complete at the 66.75 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009.

 

We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

MAY 16 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1621gold.png  

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially lower this past week, to 1808.80, but we closed higher at 1838.10!

                                                                          

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^. Our next big challenge will be breaking through our red downtrend line connecting 2077.90 and 1962.50.

 

We are now working on wave (i) of ^iii^ and within wave (i) we completed wave -i- at 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at 1677.30.

 

We are now rallying in wave -iii- to our second projected endpoint, which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 1846.70.

 

We have reached our projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- noted above, however, it looks like the internal wave structure for all of wave -iii- may not be complete at the 1844.60 high so we should expect wave -iii- to extend further to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 1952.40.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Our initial projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 2687.80.

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We suspect that wave *iii* will likely extend since wave ^iii^ of *iii* is now projected to be higher than the current complete wave *iii* projection.     

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1621si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially higher past week reaching a high of 28.00, but we closed lower at 27.36!  

                                                                  

Wave ii is complete at the 21.96 low and we are now rallying higher in wave iii of 3, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

iii = 1.618i = 51.52!

 

Within wave iii, we completed wave (i) at 29.91 and all of wave (ii) at the 23.74 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii) of iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 34.22.

 

Expect higher prices next week.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 1.700%, closing at 1.635%!

 

It appears that the bear market in US interest is now over and it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s!

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence. Within that impulsive sequence we are rallying in wave (iii) which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618 (i) =1.910%.

 

We expect to move higher in the weeks ahead as we head toward the 1.910% level. We are currently working on the internal subdivision count within wave (iii). After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1621oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude moved sideways this past week, although we closed higher at 65.37!

 

It now looks like wave -i- is complete at the 67.98 high so we should still be falling in developing wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81

61.8% = 46.81.

 

We are also challenging our multi-year breakout of our major downtrend line. We are still short of retracement levels for our wave -ii- correction, so we still expect lower prices ahead.

 

We still expect a drop at least back to our 50% retracement level of 50.81, before all of wave -ii- ends.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally higher in wave -iii-.

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (iii), with all of wave (iii) having and initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1621su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was higher this past week reaching a high of 24.12, but we closed lower at 23.23!

 

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave iii. Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -i- ended at the 19.94 and likely all of wave -ii- at the 16.29 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-=31.29.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1621sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower this past week reaching a low of 4056.98, closing at 4173.85!

 

From the 3723.34 low we have now completed the minimum requirements for a completed 5 wave impulsive sequence at the 4238.04 high, and we are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) of v is complete at that high.

 

We should therefore be falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

It is too early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (iv) is going to become.

 

Active Positions: Short with calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1621usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 89.96, but we closed higher at 90.32!

 

Wave -iv- is now complete at the 93.47 high, so we should now be heading lower in wave -v-.

 

Expect further losses, with a drop to at least the 88.15 low.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1621cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower this past reaching a low of 902.36, closing at 931.38!

 

It appears that wave $ii$ as not complete at the 909.06 low, but we think it is likely now complete at the 902.36 low. If that is the case then we should start to rally sharply higher in wave $iii$.

 

We will provide your first projections for the end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of the wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

Wave .iii. is now subdividing and if that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii- of .iii. Our initial projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- =1.618-i- = 1592.50.                           

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long-term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1621gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 38.22, closing at 37.84!

 

We to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63!

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following extended projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- =2.618-i- = 41.70.

 

It now looks like wave -iii- is subdividing with wave $i$ ending at 36.84, and all of wave $ii$ just short of our 50% retracement level at 34.31.

 

We are now rallying in wave $iii$, which has the following initial project endpoint:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 42.70.

 

Expect higher prices next week.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                      

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions at 31.50.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1621bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 48516, closing at 48706!

 

It is starting to look like that all of wave 1 or A is now complete in Bitcoin at the 64860 high.

 

If that is the case then Bitcoin is going to spend the next couple of years correcting in either wave 2 or B, with the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

There is still an outside chance that wave (4) of 1 or A is still underway and is becoming a bullish triangle that has a number of months to go before it ends, but that option will be eliminated if we trade below 43062.

 

After wave (4) ends we should expect another rally to all time new highs in wave (5) of 1 or A.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

may 14 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1421cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 902.30, closing at 908.35!

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

It now looks like wave $ii$ is still underway, as it appears to have become a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on the Daily CDNX Chart. WE did reach our minimum target of 909.06, so we now need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$ and the start of a major rally in wave $iii$.

 

We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1421gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1421gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 36.43, but closing marginally higher at 36.93!

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low. We are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, but based on the internal wave structure for wave -iii- we now believe we are subdividing which is suggesting that a higher initial target is in order for wave -iii- which is now:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.70     

 

Within wave -iii-, we are now working on the assumption that all of wave $ii$ ended at the 34.31 low. We should therefore now be rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 42.70.

 

On the 60 Min Intraday Chart we appear to have completed a corrective pattern from the 38.22 high to yesterday’s low of 36.43. If this corrective pattern is complete at the 36.43 low then this market is moving higher again likely heading to our next short term resistance of 39.01.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1421gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1838.80!                                                                                            

 

We are now rallying in wave (i) of *iii* and within wave (i) we completed wave -i- at the 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. We should now be rallying in wave -iii- and expect to continue to move higher to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 1846.70.

 

We have now reaching our next projected endpoint for the completion of wave -iii-, but it does not look like the internal wave structure of wave -iii- is complete, so we still expect higher prices above the current high of 1846.30, before all of wave -iii- ends.

 

We will give this market another day or so to see how much more upside we have in wave -iii-. If wave -iii- is extending higher than our next projected endpoint is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 1952.40!

 

On the Intraday Chart the corrective pattern from the 1846.30 high to the current low of 1808.50 looks complete, which if true means that gold is going to start moving higher again with next resistance at the 1845/1846 level.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1421si.png

  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 27.43!

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*.

 

On the Intraday Chart the corrective drop from the 28.00 high to the 26.80 low looks complete and if true then silver should be moving higher again, with next resistance is the 28.10/28.50 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1421bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.630%!

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay142spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1421sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4131.58. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 29 points!

 

All of wave -v- of (iii) is now complete at 4236.39 high. We are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

The expected drop in wave (iv) should be between 300 and 550 points.

 

It is still too early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (iv) is going to develop into.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Trading Recommendation: Short will calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1421usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 90.41!

 

We continue to fall in wave -v-.  

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1421oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 63.09. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 64.75!

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, as we continue to rally higher in an incomplete wave ^b^, although it may now be complete at the 66.75 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

may 13 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1321cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 909.05, closing at 910.92.

 

Our head and shoulder bottom formation has been eliminated.

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

It now looks like wave $ii$ is still underway, as it appears to have become a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on the daily CDNX Chart. Our minimum target for this correction is the first wave *a* low which is 909.06. After wave $ii$ ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we think all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1321gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1321gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 36.74, closing at 36.86.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low.

 

We are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, but based on the internal wave structure for wave -iii- we now believe we are subdividing which is suggesting that a higher initial target is in order for wave -iii- which is now:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.70     

 

Within wave -iii-, we are now working on the assumption that all of wave $ii$ ended at the 34.31 low. We should therefore now be rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 42.70.

 

Next short term resistance is 39.01.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1321gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was initially higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1844.70, but after that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1808.50.              

 

We are now rallying in wave (i) of *iii* and within wave (i) we completed wave -i- at the 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50.

 

We should now be rallying in wave -iii- and expect to continue to move higher to our next projected endpoint which we almost hit recently and is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 1846.70.

 

We have now reaching our next projected endpoint for the completion of wave -iii-, but it does not look like the internal wave structure of wave -iii- is complete, so we still expect higher prices above the current high of 1846.30, before all of wave -iii- ends.

 

We will give this market another day or so to see how much more upside we have in wave -iii-. If wave -iii- is extending higher than our next projected endpoint is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 1952.40.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from the 1846.30 high to the current low of 1808.00 looks corrective which when complete is suggesting higher prices lie ahead.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1321si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was initially higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 27.83, but after that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 26.80!

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 28.00 to the current low of 26.80 looks corrective, after it ends we expect silver to start to move higher again. Next resistance is the 28.10/28.50 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1321bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.707%!

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1321spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1312sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4056.88!

 

 In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 2 points.

 

All of wave -v- of (iii) is now complete at 4236.39 high. We are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

The expected drop in wave (iv) should be between 300 and 550 points.

 

It is still to early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (iv) is going to develop into.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Short will calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1321usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 90.91!

 

We continue to fall in wave -v-.  

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1321oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 66.63. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 64.08!

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, as we continue to rally higher in an incomplete wave ^b^, although it may now be complete at the 66.75 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

 

may 12 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1221cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 914.77, closing at 930.45.

 

 Note the possible head and shoulders bottom pattern on our CDNX Daily Chart, although we have adjusted the right shoulder to be at yesterday’s low of 914.77.

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

We continue to wait for confirmation that all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 909.06 low. If it is then we should see the CNDX start to move starting higher in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projected endpoint for all of wave $iii$, after we believe that all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

We have now completed the minimum requirements for our small corrective pattern that started at the 962.05 high. If our observation is correct we should then start to move sharply higher breaking through our neckline, confirming that all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 906.06 low. The other option is that wave $ii$ is still underway and becoming a double 3 wave corrective pattern, which suggest we are heading back to at least the 906.06 low before all of wave $ii$ ends.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1221gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1221gdxd.png   

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 36.50, although we closed higher at 37.64!

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low.

 

We are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, but based on the internal wave structure for wave -iii- we now believe we are subdividing which is suggesting that a higher initial target is in order for wave -iii- which is now:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.70     

 

Within wave -iii-, we are now working on the assumption that all of wave $ii$ ended at the 34.31 low. We should therefore now be rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 42.70.

 

Next short term resistance is 39.01.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1221gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1817.80, but after that low was made we moved higher reaching ahigh of 1839.00.

 

In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching  a low of 1821.80.                                                     

 

We are now rallying in wave (i) of *iii* and within wave (i) we completed wave -i- at the 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. We should now be rallying in wave -iii- and expect to continue to move higher to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 1846.70.

 

We have now reaching our next projected endpoint for the completion of wave -iii-, but it does not look like the internal wave structure of wave -iii- is complete, so we still expect higher prices above the current high of 1846.30.

 

We will give this market another day or so to see how much more upside we have in wave -iii-. If wave -iii- is extending higher than our next projected endpoint is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 1952.40.

 

On the Intraday Chart we our bullish triangle formation was eliminated but we do appear to have a completed corrective pattern in place from the 1846.30 high to yesterday’s low of 1817.80. which if complete is suggesting higher prices lie ahead.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1221si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 27.18. After that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 27.78.

 

In the overnight session we moved lower reaching a low of 27.24.

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*.

 

Next resistance is the 28.10/28.50 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1221bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.650%!

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1221spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1221sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4111.53. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 14 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -v- of (iii) is now complete at 4236.39 high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

The expected drop in wave (iv) should be between 300 and 550 points.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Short will calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1221usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially marginally lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 89.95.

 

After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 90.65!

 

We continue to fall in wave -v-.  

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1221oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session we have reached a high of 66.31!

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, as we continue to rally higher in an incomplete wave ^b^, although it may now be complete at the 66.75 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew