OCT 31 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021oc31gold1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold moved basically sideways this past week although we closed a bit lower at 1783.90.

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now falling in an ongoing lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave *d*.

 

Wave *d*, looks to be turning into a 3wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave $b$ ending at the 1721.10 low.

 

We are rallying in wave $c$ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

We attempted our ‘big breakout’ last next week, trying to close above the red downtrend line connecting 1919.20 and 1836.90, and we closed right on that line.

 

We still have not cleanly broken through and closed above that line on a weekly basis and…

 

We now have conflicting counts;

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 1721.10 to 1815.50 looks to be a completed 5 wave impulsive with our bullish triangle possibly ending at 1776.90 and possibly our thrust at 1815.50. The thrust leg did not extend higher, so the drop from 1815.50 to the current low of 1772.40 is the correction of that impulsive rally.

 

The other option is that we are working on an expanding and extending bullish triangle that started at the 1745.90 low and did not end at the 1776.90 low. In this option we may have completed 3 out of 5 points of this triangle at 1745.90, 1815.50 and 1772.50. This last point may not be complete at the 1772.50 low also.

 

If that is the case then we should now be rallying the 4th point, although for this triangle to remain valid we cannot rally above the 1815.50 high.

 

After this next rally we expect one more drop that cannot drop below the 1772.50 low. After this extended bullish triangle ends we should expect a very large thrust higher.

 

This thrust may complete all of wave .d.

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121si1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was also lower this past week reaching a low of 23.70, as we projected it would likely be, closing at 23.95.  

                                                                  

All of wave ii of 3 ended at 21.41. We are now rallying in the initial stages of wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We reached our 24.94 resistance level and it looks like all of wave -i- of iii ended at the 24.92 low and we are now falling in wave -ii-. We are still a bit short of our 50% retracement level for all of wave -ii- so we expect some further weakness early next week.

 

The wave -ii- correction is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -i- rally.                                            

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was lower this past week reaching a low of 1.520, closing at 1.557%.

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.691% high. Note the ending diagonal triangle formation that is shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We broke below the lower trend line of our ending diagonal triangle formation connecting 1.463% and 1.507% and it looks like we successfully tested that breakdown in Friday’s trading.

 

We expect lower prices now as we fall in wave *c*, which as a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Short again risking to 1.770%

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 85.41, although we closed marginally lower at 83.57.

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, with our wave (iv) bullish triangle ended at the 69.39 low, as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

We are now thrusting higher in wave (v), which see a run to the $90/95 level below it ends. Next major resistance is the 91.24 level.

 

We have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for completed wave (v) based on price, but the internal wave structure is still not complete at the 84.22 high, so we expect higher prices lie ahead before all of wave i ends.

 

After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor ripped aggressively higher this past week, reaching a high of 26.64, closing at 26.30 being up about 15% on the week!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

We are on the verge of a major breakout as shown on the Weekly Suncor Chart.

 

We expect much higher prices in Suncor over the next couple of months.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!!                               

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply higher again this past week reaching another all-time high of 4608.08, closing at 4605.38!

 

We still think that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85 high and we are now starting to fall in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6% = 4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It looks like wave (iv) has become an irregular type correction, although we are still not sure of the exact internal wave structure of this correction.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121usd.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 93.26, although we closed higher at 94.12!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it looks like wave $c$ of *iv* is still underway, although it could now be complete at the 94.57 high. Wave $c$ can rally as high as the wave $a$ high of 94.80, for our current bearish triangle option to remain valid. After wave $c$ ends we still expect a wave *d* drop that cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our current projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching ahigh of 966.57, closing at 950.48!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

We still expect higher prices again next week as wave -iii- gets going higher, although we still have some previous resistance levels to get through.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 31.80, closing at 31.71!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *iii*, which ash the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

It looks like all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii is now complete at the 33.95 high and we now falling in wave -ii-.

 

The current low for wave -ii- is still a bit short of our 50 % retracement level so we expect some further weakness early next week before all of wave -ii- ends.

 

Note that we are forming the right shoulder of our head and shoulders bottoming formation now.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc3121bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was lower this past week reaching a low of 58128, closing at 60411!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

Within wave B or 2 we think all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave (b) which now looks to be complete at the 66981 high. We should now be falling in wave (c) back to at least the wave (a) low to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction, as opposed to a simple zigzag.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

OCT 29 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021oc29cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 956.11, closing at 955.21!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

In the short term we have lots of resistance to get through between these current levels and 1000. Next resistance is 971.60, then 982.22.

 

The current rally from the 847.92 low is wave $i$ of (i) of -iii-, that appears on the Intraday Chart to still be incomplete at the 966.57 high.

 

We therefore expect higher prices before all of wave $i$ ends.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2921gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2921gdxd.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading reaching a low of 32.50, closing at 32.59.

 

We have started to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^. Within wave ^i^ we are working on wave -i- which could be complete at the 33.95 high. If that is the case then we should expect a wave -ii- drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 31.39;

61.8% = 30.79.

 

We are still short of our 50% retracement level, so we still expect further weakness in the days ahead.

 

It still might be possible that wave -i- could extend higher before it ends also. If it is extending then all of wave $iii$ of -i- ended at 33.95, and we are now falling in an almost complete wave $iv$.

 

Note that a drop in the GDX now will create the final leg of a head and shoulder bottoming formation on as shown on our 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2921gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1812.70.

 

After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1791.90.

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., we are now rallying in wave $c$ which has a projection for its completion of:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

On the Intraday Chart the trading from the 1745.90 low looks once again to be a very large expanding bullish triangle that has the following three endpoints out of five: 1745.90, 1815.50 and 1783.00.

 

If this bullish triangle option is valid that we should start to rally again in our fourth endpoint which cannot trade above the 1815.50 high.

 

After that we should drop one more time but not below the 1783.00 low. After that gold would then thrust sharply higher. The size of this triangle is suggesting a thrust of between $75/100. This thrust will likely complete all of wave .d..

 

Longer term, after wave .d. ends we expect one more drop in wave .e. to complete all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10.

 

This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2921si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 23.79!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We are rallying in wave -i- of (i) of iii, although it may be complete at the 24.92 high. If that is the case then we are now correcting in wave -ii- which ash the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 23.17;

61.8% = 22.75!

 

We still expect lower prices as wave -ii- unfolds, although like gold and the GDX, the final leg within wave -i- may still extend a bit higher before all of wave -i- ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2921bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1.601%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $b$ is complete at the 1.705% high, as we have broken below our lower trendline of our ending diagonal triangle as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Chart.

 

The current rally is a test of that breakdown, which we expect will fail as we head lower in wave *c*.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short again risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short again risking to 1.770%

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2921spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2921sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session as we reaching a high at 4597.55. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 19 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

We will need to give this market a few more days to see which corrective pattern it has now become. We still think wave .a. ended at the 4305.91 low and that the current rally is a wave .b.. After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv).

 

After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach or exceed the previous all-time high. After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which will at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

 

Wave (iv) looks to be developing into a complex flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2921usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 93.26. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 93.61!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may finally be complete at the 94.57 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2921oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a of 80.58 but after that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 83.28!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT 27 morning post!

Captain will be in Calgary from Tuesday to Thursday this week. No post on Thursday due to early flight back home.

 

Our Stockcharts Charts could not be updated for this posting, due to technical issues with the chart provider, but the commentary is current.

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 966.57 although we closed lower at 956.33!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

In the short term we have lots of resistance to get through between these current levels and 1000. Next resistance is 971.60, then 982.22.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading reaching a low of 33.02, closing at 33.25.

 

We have started to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^. Within wave ^i^ we are working on wave -i- which could be complete at the 33.95 high. If that is the case then we should expect a wave -ii- drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 31.39;

61.8% = 30.79.

 

It still might be possible that wave -i- could extend a little higher before it ends also.

 

Note that a drop in the GDX now will create the final leg of a head and shoulder bottoming formation on as shown on our 60 Min GDX Chart

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1783.00. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1795.30 level.

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., we are now rallying in wave $c$ which has a projection for its completion of:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

Last Friday we got our thrust to the 1815.50 high and then sold off.

 

On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a five wave impulsive sequence from 1721.10 to the 1815.50 high.

 

We could still extend higher within this impulsive sequence, but if we do not then we should expect a correction that retraces as follows:

 

50% = 1768.30;

61.8% = 1757.20.

 

In yesterday’s trading we did drop to a low of 1783.00, which is still above our 50% retracement level for all of this possible correction, so we doubt it is complete at the 1783.00 low, but from an Ewave pattern point of view on the Intraday Chart we have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed 3 corrective drop from 1815.50 to yesterday’s low of 1783.00

 

Its just that our retracement was short of our 50% level. We could start moving higher from here.

 

Also we did break and close above our red down trendline connecting 1919.20 and 1836.90, which may be suggesting that this impulsive sequence is now extending higher with a target of the 1836.00/1837.00 neckline, before it ends.

 

Longer term, after wave .d. ends we expect one more drop in wave .e. to complete all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 23.90!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We are rallying in wave -i- of (i) of iii, although it may be complete at the 24.92 high. If that is the case then we are now correcting in wave -ii- which ash the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 23.17;

61.8% = 22.75!

 

We expect lower prices for most of this week as wave -ii- unfolds, although like gold and the GDX, the final leg within wave -i- may extend a bit higher before it ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1.590%!  Our short position could be a winner!!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibly at the 1.705% high. Note the potential almost completed ending diagonal triangle on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Chart. A break of the lower red trendline connecting 1.453% and 1.507% will confirm that all of wave $b$ is complete at the 1.705% high.

 

We also had a key daily reversal lower in last Friday’s session, which is good news for the bears.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short again risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short again risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session as we reached another all-time high at 4598.53. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 2 points.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

We will need to give this market a few more days to see which corrective pattern it has now become. We still think wave .a. ended at the 4305.91 low and that the current rally is a wave .b..

 

After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv).

 

After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach or exceed the previous all-time high. After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which will at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

 

Wave (iv) looks to be developing into a complex flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 94.02. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 93.86 level.

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may finally be complete at the 94.57 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Go Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2721oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 83.80 level!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart.

 

Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT 26 DAILY UPDATE

The Captain will be in Calgary from Tuesday to Thursday this week. No post on Thursday due to early flight back home.

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2621cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX blasted higher in yesterday’s trading session, reaching a high of 964.65, closing at 963.93!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

In the short term we have lots of resistance to get through between these current levels and 1000. Next resistance is 971.60, then 982.22.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2621gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2621gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways in yesterday’s trading reaching although we closed higher at 33.45.

 

We have started to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^.

 

Within wave ^i^ we are working on wave -i- which could be complete at the 33.95 high.

 

If that is the case then we should expect a wave -ii- drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 31.39;

61.8% = 30.79.

 

It still might be possible that wave -i- could extend a little higher before it ends also.

 

Note that a drop in the GDX now will create the final leg of a head and shoulder bottoming formation on as shown on our 60 Min GDX Chart

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2621gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1811.50. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1801.20!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., we are now rallying in wave $c$ which has a projection for its completion of:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

Last Friday we got our thrust to the 1815.50 high and then sold off. On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a five wave impulsive sequence from 1721.10 to the 1815.50 high. We could still extend higher within this impulsive sequence, but if we do not then we should expect a correction that retraces as follows:

 

50% = 1768.30;

61.8% = 1757.20.

 

We did break and close above our red down trendline connecting 1919.20 and 1836.90, which may be suggesting that this impulsive sequence is now extending higher with a target of the 1836.00/1837.00 neckline, before it ends.

 

Longer term, after wave .d. ends we expect one more drop in wave .e. to complete all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2621si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 24.69. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 24.32.

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We are rallying in wave -i- of (i) of iii, although it may be complete at the 24.92 high. If that is the case then we are now correcting in wave -ii- which ash the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 23.17;

61.8% = 22.75!

 

We expect lower prices for most of this week as wave -ii- unfolds, although like gold and the GDX, the final leg within wave -i- may extend a bit higher before it ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2621bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1.613%.

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibly at the 1.705% high. Note the potential almost completed ending diagonal triangle on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Chart. A break of the lower red trendline connecting 1.453% and 1.507% will confirm that all of wave $b$ is complete at the 1.705% high.

 

We also had a key daily reversal lower in Friday’s session, which is good news for the bears.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short again risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short again risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2621spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2621sp120.png  

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session as we reached another all-time high at 4572.62. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 18 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

We will need to give this market a few more days to see which corrective pattern it has now become. We still think wave .a. ended at the 4305.91 low and that the current rally is a wave .b.. After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv).

 

After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach or exceed the previous all-time high. After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which will at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

 

Wave (iv) looks to be developing into a complex flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2621uysd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we initially moved higher reaching a high of 93.95, although after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 93.69!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may finally be complete at the 94.57 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2621oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was initially higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 85.41. After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 82.97.

 

After that low was made we moved higher again to currently be trading at the 84.14 level.

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

OCT 25 morning post!

 

The Captain will be in Calgary from Tuesday to Thursday this week. No post on Thursday due to early flight back home.

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2521cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved sideways in Friday’s trading session although we closed higher at 948.84!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

In the short term we have lots of resistance to get through between these current levels and 1000. Next resistance is 971.60, then 982.22.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2521gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2521gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Friday’s trading reaching a high of 33.95, closing at 32.99!

 

We have started to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72!!!

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^.

 

Within wave ^i^ we are working on wave -i- which could be complete at the 33.95 high.

 

If that is the case then we should expect a wave -ii- drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 31.39;

61.8% = 30.79.

 

It still might be possible that wave -i- could extend a little higher before it ends also.

 

Note that a drop in the GDX now will create the final leg of a head and shoulder bottoming formation on as shown on our 60 Min GDX Chart

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2521gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 1815.50, although after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1783.70.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher, reaching a high of 1805.30!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., we are now rallying in wave $c$ which has a projection for its completion of:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

On Friday we got our thrust to the 1815.50 high and then sold off.

 

On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a five wave impulsive sequence from 1721.10 to the 1815.50 high.

 

We could still extend higher within this impulsive sequence, but if we do not then we should expect a correction that retraces as follows:

 

50% = 1768.30;

61.8% = 1757.20.

 

After this correction ends we should move higher again and finally decisively break above the red down trendline connecting 1919.20 and 1836.90!

 

Longer term, after wave .d. ends we expect one more drop in wave .e. to complete all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2521si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 24.92, but after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 24.26.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 24.56!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We are rallying in wave -i- of (i) of iii, although it may be complete at the 24.92 high. If that is the case then we are now correcting in wave -ii- which ash the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 23.17;

61.8% = 22.75!

 

We expect lower prices for most of this week as wave -ii- unfolds.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2521bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1.634%.!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibly at the 1.705% high. Note the potential almost completed ending diagonal triangle on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Chart. A break of the lower red trendline connecting 1.453% and 1.507% will confirm that all of wave $b$ is complete at the 1.705% high.

 

We also had a key daily reversal lower in Friday’s session, which is good news for the bears.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short again risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short again risking to 1.770%

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2521spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2521spd120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was initially higher in Friday’s trading session as we reached another all-time high at 4559.67, although we closed marginally lower at 4544.90.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 6 points.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

We will need to give this market a few more days to see which corrective pattern it has now become. We still think wave .a. ended at the 4305.91 low and that the current rally is a wave .b.. After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv).

 

After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach or exceed the previous all-time high. After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which will at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

 

Wave (iv) looks to be developing into a complex flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2521usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways in Friday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 93.91!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may finally be complete at the 94.57 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2521oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 85.06!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

OCT 24 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold moved higher this past week reaching a high of 1815.50, closing at 1796.30!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now falling in an ongoing lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave *d*.

 

Wave *d*, looks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave $b$ ending at the 1721.10 low. We are now rallying in wave $c$ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

We attempted our big breakout last next week, trying to close above the red downtrend line connecting 1919.20 and 1836.90, and we closed right on that line!

 

We expect the cleanly break through and close above that line next week.

 

We also note that on the Intraday Chart the rally from 1721.10 to 1815.50 looks to be a completed 5 wave impulsive with our bullish triangle ending at 1776.90 and possibly our thrust at 1815.50.

 

It is still possible that our thrust leg could extend much higher before all of this impulsive sequence ends. If we are now correcting that impulsive sequence then we should expect gold to be weaker early next week, before moving shapely higher again, after this correction ends.

 

This correction should coincide with the possible correction we could start to see in the GDX (See below).

 

Of course this bullish triangle could also expand and extend, but one step at a time. 

 

Alternate count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.          

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 24.92, closing at 24.45!  

                                                                  

All of wave ii of 3 ended at 21.41. We are now rallying in the initial stages of wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We got our big breakout higher last week and are now challenging the 24.94 resistance level.

 

We may be getting close to completing wave -i- of iii, possibly at the 24.92 high, and after it ends we expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -I- rally.                    

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 1.691%, closing at 1.655%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.691% high. Not the ending diagonal triangle formation that is shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

We also had a key daily reversal lower in Friday’s trading. A break below the lower trend line of our ending diagonal triangle formation connecting 1.463% and 1.507% will confirm that all of wave *b* ended at the 1.691% high.

 

After wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which as a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 84.22, closing at 83.76!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, with our wave (iv) bullish triangle ended at the 69.39 low, as shown on our Daily Crude Chart. We are now thrusting higher in wave (v), which see a run to the $90/95 level below it ends. Next resistance is the 91.24 level.

 

We have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for completed wave (v) based on price, but the internal wave structure is still not complete at the 84.22 high, so we expect higher prices lie ahead before all of wave i ends.

 

After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 22.40, closing at 22.86!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

We expect much higher in Suncor over the next couple of months.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply higher this past week reaching another all-time high of 4559.67, closing at 4544.90!

 

We sthink that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85 high and we are now starting to fall in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6% = 4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It looks like wave (iv) has become a flat or irregular type correction, although we are still not sure of the exact internal wave structure of this correction.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421us.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 93.47, closing at 93.62!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it looks like wave $c$ of *iv* is still underway, although it could now be complete at the 94.57 high.

 

Wave $c$ can rally as high as the wave $a$ high of 94.80, for our current bearish triangle option to remain valid.

 

After wave $c$ ends we still expect a wave *d* drop that cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our current projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching ahigh of 954.50, closing at 948.84!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

We expect higher prices again next week as wave -iii- gets going higher, although we still have some previous resistance levels to get through.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher again this past week reaching a high of 33.95, closing at 32.99!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *iii*, which ash the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

We need to be on guard for the possibly that all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii is now complete at the 33.95 high and if that is the case then we should expect a drop in wave -iii- which retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -i- rally. expect higher prices next week.

 

Wave -i- could extend higher also, but the GDX had come a low way since the end of wave *ii* occurred at the 28.83 low

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                          

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2421bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was initially sharply higher again this past week reaching an all-time high of 66981 although we closed lower at 60399!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly. Within wave B or 2 we think all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave (b) which now looks to be complete at the 66981 high.

 

We should now be falling in wave (c) back to at least the wave (a) low to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction, as opposed to a simple zigzag.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

OCT 22 monring post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2221cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 941.14, closing at 945.39.

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

In the short term we have lots of resistance to get through between these current levels and 1000. Next resistance is 971.60, then 982.22.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04!

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2221gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2221gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading reaching a low of 32.50, closing at 32.73.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 28.83 low, and that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72!

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^. Within wave ^i^ we are working on wave -i-, where we have updated our internal count to suggest that we are still working on a subdividing wave $iii$, which has an initial projection for its completion as follows:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 33.93.

 

After wave -i- ends we expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -i- rally, although wave -i- still has waves $iii$, $iv$ and $v$ to complete as shown on our 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

Wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2221gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1796.10!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and all of wave $b$ at the 1721.10 low. We are now rallying in wave $c$ which has a projection for its completion of:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

On the Intraday Chart gold appears to be working on a very large bullish triangle, which started at the 1745.90 low. Within the triangle we need five touch points which is this case at: 1745.90, 1801.80, 1760.40, 1790.10 and the last point which currently is 1776.90.

 

As long as this last point does not fall below the 1760.40 low, then after this final drop occurs we expect gold will thrust sharply higher.

 

The size of this triangle indicates that the projected spike higher could be between $50 to $60. In the overnight session gold has broken above the upper trendline of this bullish triangle which connects 1810.80 and 1790.10 and is now starting to thrust higher.

 

We are now challenging our major red downtrend line that connects 1919.20 and 1836.90 again. We expect it to be strong resistance, but expect we will break through, perhaps today. After that we should continue higher to our neck line resistance.

 

After wave .d. ends we expect one more drop in wave .e. to complete all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2221si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 24.07. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 24.46!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We are rallying in wave -i- of (i) of iii. Next major resistance looks to be the 24.95 level, which we could reach today.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521bond.png  

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1.705%.!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibly at the 1.705% high. Note the potential almost completed ending diagonal triangle on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Chart. A break of the lower red trendline connecting 1.453% and 1.507% will confirm that all of wave $b$ is complete at the 1.705% high.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Go Short again risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short again risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2221sp120.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc222spd.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching another all-time high of 4551.44. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 5 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

Our initial thoughts are which corrective pattern wave (iv) was becoming were eliminated on Friday. We will need to give this market a few more days to see which corrective pattern it has now become.

 

We still think wave .a. ended at the 4305.91 low and that the current rally is a wave .b.. After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv).

 

After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach or exceed the previous all-time high. After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which would at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

 

Wave (iv) looks to be developing into a complex flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2221usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 93.78. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 93.57!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may finally be complete at the 94.57 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2221oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 80.81. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 83.27!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT 21 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2121cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher again in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 954.50, and closing on its high of 952.87!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

In the short term we have lots of resistance to get through between these current levels and 1000. Next resistance is 971.60, then 982.22.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct2121gdx60.png

 

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct2121gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading reaching a high of 33.16, closing at 32.86!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 28.83 low, and that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^. Within wave ^i^ we are working on wave -i-, where we have updated our internal count to suggest that we are still working on a subdividing wave $iii$, which has an initial projection for its completion as follow:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 33.93.

 

After wave -i- ends we expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -i- rally, although wave -i- still has waves $iii$, $iv$ and $v$ to complete as shown on our 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

Wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct2121gold.png  

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached ahigh of 1790.10.

 

After that high was made we dropped off reaching a low of 1776.90, although we are now trading at the 1783.00 level!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid.

 

Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and all of wave $b$ at the 1721.10 low. We are now rallying in wave $c$ which has a projection for its completion of:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

On the Intraday Chart gold appears to be working on a very large bullish triangle, which started at the 1745.90 low.

 

Within the triangle we need five touch points which is this case at: 1745.90, 1801.80, 1760.40, 1790.10 and the last point which currently is 1776.90.

 

As long as this last point does not fall below the 1760.40 low, then after this final drop occurs we expect gold will thrust sharply higher.

 

The size of this triangle indicates that the projected spike higher could be between $50 to $60.

 

A break above the upper trendline of this bullish triangle which connects 1810.80 and 1790.10 will likely start the thrust movement higher.

 

After wave .d. ends we expect one more drop in wave .e. to complete all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle. We already tested resistance at our red downtrend line that connects 1919.20 and 1836.90. We expect it to be strong resistance, but expect we will break through this week, or at least soon! 

 

After that we should continue higher to our neckline resistance.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2121si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 24.55!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We are rallying in wave -i- of (i) of iii. Next major resistance looks to be the 24.95 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2121bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1.68%.!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibly at the 1.680% high. Note the potential almost completed ending diagonal triangle on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Chart. A break of the lower red trendline connecting 1.453% and 1.507% will confirm that all of wave $b$ is complete at the 1.680% high.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

 

We were stopped out of short position in the overnight session but we have decided to re-enter short again risking to 1.770%!   

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Short again risking to 1.770%!

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short again risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2121spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2121sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4540.87. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 13 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

Our initial thoughts are which corrective pattern wave (iv) was becoming were eliminated on Friday. We will need to give this market a few more days to see which corrective pattern it has now become.

 

We still think wave .a. ended at the 4305.91 low and that the current rally is a wave .b.. After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv).

 

After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach our exceed the previous all-time high. After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which will at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

 

Wave (iv) looks to be developing into a complex flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2121usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 93.48. After that low was made we moved higher currently trading at the 93.68 level!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may finally be complete at the 94.57 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2121oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached high of 83.94!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT 20 morning post!

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2021cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher again in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 950.38, and closing on its high of 950.38!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

In the short term we have lots of resistance to get through between these current levels and 1000.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2021gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2021gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading reaching a high of 32.89, closing at 32.50!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 28.83 low, and that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^. Within wave ^i^ we are working on wave -i-, where we have updated our internal count to suggest that we are still working on a subdividing wave $iii$, which has an initial projection for its completion as follow:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 33.93.

 

After wave -i- ends we expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -i- rally, although wave -i- still has waves $iii$, $iv$ and $v$ to complete as shown on our 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

Wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2021gold.png

 

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1786.00, however, after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1767.10. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching ahigh of 1785.50!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and all of wave $b$ at the 1721.10 low. We are now rallying in wave $c$ which has a projection for its completion of:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

Gold is moving higher in wave $c$ of .d, but on the Intraday Chart the rally from 1721.10 to 1801.80 looks to be a completed impulsive sequence. The current drop is the correction which has the following retracement levels:;

 

50% = 1761.50;

61.8% = 1752.00.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone so we need to be a guard for the completion of this correction and the start of another leg higher.

 

After wave .d. ends we expect one more drop in wave .e. to complete all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle. We already tested resistance at our red downtrend line that connects 1919.20 and 1836.90. We expect it to be strong resistance, but expect we will break through this week, perhaps today. After that we should continue higher to our neck line resistance.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2021si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 24.18, however after reaching a that high we moved lower reaching a low of 23.62. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 24.16!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We are rallying in wave -i- of (i) of iii. We have now broken above our purple downtrend line which is shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Next major resistance looks to be the 24.95 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2021bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1.671%.!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibly at the 1.671% high. Note the potential almost completed ending diagonal triangle on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Chart. A break of the lower red trendline connecting 1.453% and 1.507% will confirm that all of wave $b$ is complete at the 1.671% high.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

 

We have decided to short this market risking to the 1.671% high!    

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Go Short risking to 1.672%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Going short, risking to 1.672%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2021spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2021sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4520.40. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 4 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

Our initial thoughts are which corrective pattern wave (iv) was becoming were eliminated on Friday. We will need to give this market a few more days to see which corrective pattern it has now become. We still think wave .a. ended at the 4305.91 low and that the current rally is a wave .b.. After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv).

 

After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach our exceed the previous all-time high. After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which will at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

 

Wave (iv) looks to be developing into a complex flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2021usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 93.88!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may finally be complete at the 94.57 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 93.49 to the current high of 93.88 looks to be corrective which is suggesting lower prices lie ahead after this corrective pattern ends.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc2021oil.png Short Term Update:

 

Crude was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 81.09, but after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 82.98. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 81.36!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

 

OCT 19 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1921cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher again in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 942.31, closing at 937.81!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

In the short term we have lots of resistance to get through between these current levels and 1000.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/epoc1921gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1921gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading reaching a low of low of 32.08, closing at 32.22, but we are blasting higher this morning!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 28.83 low, and that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^. Within wave ^i^ we are working on wave -i-, where we have updated our internal count to suggest that we are still working on a subdividing wave $iii$, which has an initial projection for its completion as follow:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 33.93.

 

After wave -i- ends we expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -i- rally, although wave -i- still has waves $iii$, $iv$ and $v$ to complete as shown on our 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

Wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1921gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1785.50!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and all of wave $b$ at the 1721.10 low. We are now rallying in wave $c$ which has a projection for its completion of:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

Gold is moving higher in wave $c$ of .d, but on the Intraday Chart the rally from 1721.10 to 1801.80 looks to be a completed impulsive sequence. The current drop is the correction which has the following retracement levels:;

 

50% = 1761.50;

61.8% = 1752.00.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone so we need to be a guard for the completion of this correction and the start of another leg higher.

 

After wave .d. ends we expect one more drop in wave .e. to complete all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle. We already tested resistance at our red downtrend line that connects 1919.20 and 1836.90. We expect it to be strong resistance, but expect we will break through this week, perhaps today. After that we should continue higher to our neck line resistance.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1921si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 23.03. In the overnight session we have moved sharply higher reaching a high of 24.09!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We are rallying in wave -i- of (i) of iii. In the overnight session we have now broken above our purple downtrend line which is shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Next resistance looks to be the 24.95 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1921bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1.609%.!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibly at the 1.62% high. Note the potential ending diagonal triangle on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Chart.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1921spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1921sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4488.75. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are higher by about 10 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

Our initial thoughts are which corrective pattern wave (iv) was becoming were eliminated on Friday. We will need to give this market a few more days to see which corrective pattern it has now become.

 

We still think wave .a. ended at the 4305.91 low and that the current rally is a wave .b.. After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv).

 

After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach our exceed the previous all-time high. After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which will at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

 

Wave (iv) looks to be developing into a complex flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1921usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 93.49!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may finally be complete at the 94.57 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 93.76 to the overnight high of 94.18 looks to be corrective which is suggesting lower prices lie ahead, after this corrective pattern ends.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1921oil.png Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 81.20. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 82.78!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew