NOV 30 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov3021cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 956.35, closing at 954.26!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

It now looks like all of wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- is complete at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 936.85;

61.8% = 915.86.

 

We are getting very close to our 50% retracement level so we need to be guard for the completion of wave $ii$ and the start of a sharp rally higher in wave $iii$

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov3021gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov3021gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was marginally higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 32.16, closing at 32.13.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 33.95 high. We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- ended at 30.96, and if that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which an initial endpoint for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

Within wave -iii-, it now looks like all of wave ^i^ ended at the 35.08 high and we are now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% =31.84.

 

We have now reached our 78.6% retracement level and we do not want to fall very much lower for our current analysis to remain valid.

 

We now need to be guard for the completion of wave ^ii^ and the start of another rally in wave ^iii^. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 31.64 low.

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov3021gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1782.00. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1800.60!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

 Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

In a surprising but very bullish development it now looks like all of wave .d. is complete at the 1879.50 high. You may recall that last week we had suggested that a possible projection for the end of wave .d was:

 

^c^ = ^a^ = 1882.10.

 

It appears that wave .d. ended at 1879.50.

 

With wave .d. not ending much sooner than we had thought we are now falling in wave .e., which is the final leg is this long drawn out wave -iv- correction. After wave .e. and -iv- end we can expect a huge thrust higher in wave -v-, which will take gold to all time new highs.

A likely place for wave .e. to end would be on our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Wave .e. has already satisfied its minimum condition, and maybe be complete at the 1777.40 low, so we need to be on guard for the completion of all of this wave -iv- bullish triangle at any time now.

 

Bulls should be using the setback to add or go long gold!

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

                            

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov3021si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 22.77. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 22.84 level!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

It now looks likes wave -ii- is still underway as it has become an irregular type correction as shown on the Daily Silver Chart. We are now dropping in wave $c$ which has a minimum target of the wave $a$ low of 23.05. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 23.17;

61.8% = 22.75.

 

We have reached our 61.8% retracement level and satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -ii- at the 22.77 low. We are now waiting for conformation that it is complete at that low.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov3021bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1.565%. In the overnight session we have moved sharply lower reaching a low of 1.421%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave flat correction pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. Wave *b* of -ii- is now complete at the 1.691% high. We are now moving lower in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

In the overnight session we have broken decisively through our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily US 10 year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Longer term our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov3021spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov3021sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4672.95. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are sharply lower by about 40 points!

 

We are now thinking that all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.94 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in the final leg of this bull market in wave (v).

 

It could be possible that all of wave (v) and v are now complete at the 4743.83 high and if that is the case then the multi-decade bull market is COMPLETE!

 

We shorted this market yesterday.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short with calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov3021usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 96.45.

 

In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 95.66!

 

We will now be adopting our alternate count as preferred which is suggesting that all of wave (i) of iii ended at 89.17 and if that is the case we are now rallying in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels: retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the possible completion of wave (ii) at the 98.94 high.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect the USDX to start to move lower again in wave (iii).

                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 99.00.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 99.00!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov3021oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 72.93. In the overnight session we have moved sharply lower reaching a low of 67.09!

 

It now looks like all of wave I is complete at the 85.41 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave ii, which has the following retracement levels;

 

50% = 45.96;

61.8% = 36.64.

 

We expect much lower prices over the next couple of months.

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97. We are now falling in wave -ii- which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.94;

61.8% = 20.75.

 

We expect lower prices ahead as wave -ii- develops.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

NOV 29 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 937.86, closing at 944.05.

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- may be finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

It now looks like all of wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- is complete at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 936.85;

61.8% = 915.86.

 

We are getting very close to our 50% retracement level so we need to be guard for the completion of wave $ii$ and the start of a sharp rally higher in wave $iii$

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation:  Go long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921gdx60.png  

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 31.64, closing at 32.12.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 33.95 high.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- ended at 30.96, and if that is the case then we are now rallying higher in wave -iii-, which an initial endpoint for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

Within wave -iii-, it now looks like all of wave ^i^ ended at the 35.08 high and we are now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% =31.84.

 

We have now reached our 78.6% retracement level and we do not want to fall very much lower for our current analysis to remain valid. We need to be guard for the completion of wave ^ii^ and the start of another rally in wave ^iii^. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 31.64 low.

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov29gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 1816.30, although after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1778.60.

 

In the overnight session as we moved higher reaching a high of 1801.60.

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

In a surprising but very bullish development it now looks like all of wave .d. is complete at the 1879.50 high. You may recall that last week we had suggested that a possible projection for the end of wave .d was:

 

^c^ = ^a^ = 1882.10.

 

It appears that wave .d. ended at 1879.50.

 

Why would we say that gold dropping $50 is a bullish development? The reason is that with wave .d. not ending much sooner than we had thought we are now falling in wave .e., which is the final leg is this long drawn out wave -iv- correction.

 

After wave .e. and -iv- end we can expect a huge thrust higher in wave -v-, which will take gold to all time new highs.

 

A likely place for wave .e. to end would be on our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Wave .e. has already satisfied its minimum condition, and maybe be complete at the 1777.40 low, so we need to be on guard for the completion of all of this wave -iv- bullish triangle at any time now. Bulls should be using the setback to add or go long gold.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

                            

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnjov2921si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 22.92. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 23.70!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

It now looks likes wave -ii- is still underway as it has become an irregular type correction as shown on the Daily Silver Chart. We are now dropping in wave $c$ which has a minimum target of the wave $a$ low of 23.05. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 23.17;

61.8% = 22.75.

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -ii- at the 22.92 low and are now waiting for conformation that it is complete at that low.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921bond.png

 

 Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield were sharply lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 1.473%. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.552%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave flat correction pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which looks to have become an double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on our Daily US 10 year Bond Yield Chart. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *b* is complete at the 1.693% high we are now starting to move lower in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.

 

Longer term our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was sharply lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 4585.43. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 38 points!

 

We are now thinking that all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.94 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in the final leg of this bull market in wave (v).

 

It could be possible that all of wave (v) and v are now complete at the 4743.83 high and if that is the case then the multi-decade bull market is COMPLETE!

 

We will give this market another day or so to see where we go!                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 96.01. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 96.36!

 

We will now be adopting our alternate count as preferred which is suggesting that all of wave (i) of iii ended at 89.17 and if that is the case we are now rallying in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels: retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the possible completion of wave (ii) at the 98.94 high. After wave (ii) ends we expect the USDX to start to move lower again in wave (iii).

 

We are now short this market risking to 99.00.

                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Go Short risking to 99.00.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 99.00! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2921oil.png   

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 67.40.

 

In the overnight session we have moved sharply higher reaching a high of 72.14.

 

It now looks like all of wave I is complete at the 85.41 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave ii, which has the following retracement levels;

 

50% = 45.96;

61.8% = 36.64.

 

We expect much lower prices over the next couple of months.

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97. We are now falling in wave -ii- which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.94;

61.8% = 20.75.

 

We expect lower prices ahead as wave -ii- develops.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

NOV 27 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2721gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 1777.40, closing at 1785.50.

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and our current preferred count is still suggesting that our lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle is still underway.

 

Within our wave -iv- triangle it now looks like all of wave .d. ended at the 1879.50 high and if that is the case then we should now be falling in wave .e.

 

We have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for wave .e., so we need to be guard for the completion of all of our length wave -v- bullish triangle.

 

Wave .e. cannot drop below the wave .c. low of 1721.10 for this current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

We are within our retracement zone for wave -iv- also.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher wave -v-, which should take gold to all time new highs.

 

Our alternate counts still remain in play as follows:

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-.  

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2721si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was also lower this week reaching a low of 22.92, closing at 23.11.

                                                                  

All of wave ii of 3 ended at 21.41. We are now rallying in the initial stages of wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

It looks like wave -ii- has become more complex and has turned into an irregular type correction. Our retracement level for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 23.17;

61.8% = 22.75.

 

We are now within our retracement zone and we have also satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -ii- with our drip below the 23.05 low on Friday.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of a sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an updated initial projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.                                  

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 1.693% but after that high was made we moved sharply lower reaching a low of 1.473, closing at 1.482%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s!

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.693% high. We have now labeled our internal wave cunt for all of wave *b* to suggest that it has become a double 3 wave correction pattern, which now appears to be complete the to 1.693% high.

 

If that is the case then we should now be falling in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

Crude Oil:                                                                                     

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2721oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude collapsed this past week reaching a low of 67.40, closing at 68.15!

 

It looks like all of wave i is complete at the 85.41 high and we are now falling in wave ii which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 45.96;

61.8% = 36.64.

 

Wave ii will likely take many months to develop, and we will see much lower prices ahead until this corrective wave ends.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2721su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 24.20, closing at 24.77.

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

It looks like our major breakout is going to be delayed as wave (iii) appears to be subdividing with wave -i- of (iii) ended at the 26.97 high. We are now falling in wave -ii- which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.94;

61.8% = 20.75.

 

We now expect lower prices as wave -ii- develops.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2621spw.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 initially made a new all-time high this past week at 4743.83, but by the end of the week we had closed lower at 4592.62!

 

We did have a key weekly reversal lower last week, which is likely indicating some sort of topping action.

 

We are still not sure whether all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.97 low, as that corrective retracement was a bit shallow, but if it did then we have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave v of V. If this is the case then the SP500 multiple decade bull market has ended.

 

We will see how the markets react next week.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/renov2721usd.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 96.94, closing at 96.10!

 

We have updated our count to suggest that within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at 89.17. We are now rallying in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We are working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at the 96.94 high and that we have started to move sharply lower in wave (iii).

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of wave (ii) this week in our Morning Posts.

 

We shorted this market early on Friday morning and sent alert to subs on it as we shorted!

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 97.00!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2721cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 937.86, closing at 944.05.

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

It looks like all of wave $i$ of -iii- ended at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$. We have reached our 50% retracement level for all of wave $ii$ so we need to be guard for its completion and the start of another sharp rally in wave $iii$.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2721gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 31.64, closing at 32.12.

 

All of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and we are now rallying in wave *iii*, which has the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii*, all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii ended at 33.95  and all of wave -ii- at the 30.96 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii- which has and initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

It looks like within wave -iii-, all of wave ^i^ ended at the 35.08 high and we are now falling in wave ^ii^ which should be complete at the 31.64 low. After wave ^ii^ ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave ^iii^.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2721bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 53576, closing at 54451!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly. Within wave B or 2 we think all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low.

 

Wave (b) is complete at the  68979 high. We are now falling in wave (c), back to at least the wave (a) low to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

NOV 25 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2521cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 970.48 and we closed on the high of 970.48!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16!

 

It now looks like all of wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- is complete at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 936.85;

61.8% = 915.86.

 

We are still short of our 50% retracement level so we expect further weakness as wave $ii$ continues to develop.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Go long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2521gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2521gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways in yesterday’s trading session, and closed marginally lower at 32.42.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 33.95 high. We are working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- ended at 30.96, and if that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which an initial endpoint for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

Within wave -iii-, it now looks like all of wave ^i^ ended at the 35.08 high and we are now falling in wave ^iii^ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 33.02;

61.8% = 32.53.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be guard for the completion of wave ^ii^ and the start of another rally in wave ^iii^.

 

We are also sitting on a uptrend line that started at the wave *ii* low of 28.83. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 32.15 low.

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Get a long-term stake in all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnjov2521gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1777.40. In the overnight session as we moved higher reaching a high of 1795.40!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid.  Legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

In a surprising but very bullish development it now looks like all of wave .d. is complete at the 1879.50 high. You may recall that last week we had suggested that a possible projection for the end of wave .d was:

 

^c^ = ^a^ = 1882.10.

 

It appears that wave .d. ended at 1879.50.

 

Why would we say that gold dropping $50 is a bullish development?

 

Well, with wave .d. not ending much sooner than we had thought we are now falling in wave .e., which is the final leg is this long drawn out wave -iv- correction.

 

After wave .e. and -iv- end we can expect a huge thrust higher in wave -v-, which will take gold to all time new highs.

 

A likely place for wave .e. to end would be on our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Wave .e. has already satisfied its minimum condition so we need to be on guard for the completion of this wave -iv- bullish triangle at any time now. Bulls should be using the setback to add or go long gold.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

                            

Trading Recommendation: Go long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2521si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 23.73!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

It now looks likes wave -ii- is still underway as it has become an irregular type correction as shown on the Daily Silver Chart. We are now dropping in wave $c$ which has a minimum target of the wave $a$ low of 23.05. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 23.17;

61.8% = 22.75.

 

There is still an outside chance that all of wave -ii- ended at the 23.05 low but the current drop in our previous wave $ii$ of -iii- is very deep, and that is why we have moved to the current count.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-.

 

Trading Recommendation: Go long, using put options as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using puts as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2521bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1.693%. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.638%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave flat correction pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low.

 

We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which looks to have become an double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on our Daily US 10 year Bond Yield Chart. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

If all or most of wave *b* is complete at the 1.693% high we should start to move lower in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.

 

Longer term our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Go short risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov22521spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2521sp120.png  

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4702.87. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 11 points!

 

The unabated rally in the SP500 is likely suggesting that our current short term count is not correct.

 

We are thinking that either all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.94 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in the final leg of this bull market in wave (v).

 

Our concern with this count is that wave (iv) was very shallow, failing to even correct to our 23.6% retracement level. The other option is that wave (iii) is extending.

 

In either case a major drop is not very far away.

 

We will need a couple more time to study our charts to determine which option appears the most plausible.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Stay flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2521usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 96.94. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 96.66!

 

We will now be adopting our alternate count as preferred which is suggesting that we are falling in wave -iii- and within wave -iii-, wave *i* ended at the 89.17 low and the current rally is wave *ii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the possible completion of wave *ii* now. After wave *ii* ends we expect the USDX to start to move lower again in wave *iii*.

 

We will updated our internal wave structure for the updated count in the coming days

 

We will be looking to short this market at the end of wave *ii*.

                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Stay flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2521oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was marginally higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 79.23. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 78.14 level!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

 

We are now working on the assumption that within wave (v), all of wave $i$ ended at the 85.41 high and we are now correcting in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

61.8% = 75.51;

78.6% = 71.92.

 

Wave $ii$ of (v) may now be complete at the 74.76 low. If that is the case then we should expect another move higher above the 85.41 high in wave $iii$.

 

We are have now extended our 61.8% retracement level and for current analysis to remain valid we would not want to drop below the 78.6% retracement level…

 

Otherwise will need to conclude that all of wave i is complete at the 85.41 high and we are dropping significantly in wave ii. Wave (ii) should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Suncor may finally now breaking out to the upside as shown on our Weekly Suncor Chart.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Go long crude with a put as a stop. Go long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

NOV 24 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2421cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 954.12, closing at 959.49.

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

It now looks like all of wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- is complete at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 936.85;

61.8% = 915.86.

 

We are still short of our 50% retracement level so we expect further weakness as wave $ii$ develops.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2421gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2421gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 32.15, closing at 32.50!

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 33.95 high. We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- ended at 30.96, and if that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which an initial endpoint for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

Within wave -iii-, it now looks like all of wave ^i^ ended at the 35.08 high and we are now falling in wave ^iii^ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 33.02;

61.8% = 32.53.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be guard for the completion of wave ^ii^ and the start of another rally in wave ^iii^.

 

We had thought the wave $iii$ of ^i^ was going to extend as our initial projection for the wave $iii$ endpoint was $iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 34.50, where the market reached 34.48.

 

As it turned out the original projection provided to be correct one, with no extension occurring.

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2421gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1781.60.

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d. Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid.

 

Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

In a surprising but very bullish development it now looks like all of wave .d. is complete at the 1879.50 high!

 

You may recall that last week we had suggested that a possible projection for the end of wave .d was:

 

^c^ = ^a^ = 1882.10.

 

It appears that wave .d. ended at 1879.50.

 

Why would we say that gold dropping $50 is a bullish development? The reason is that with wave .d. not ending much sooner than we had thought we are now falling in wave .e., which is the final leg is this long drawn out wave -iv- correction.

 

After wave .e. and -iv- end we can expect a huge thrust higher in wave -v-, which will take gold to all time new highs.

 

A likely place for wave .e. to end would be on our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Wave .e. has already satisfied its minimum condition so we need to be on guard for the completion of this wave -iv- bullish triangle at any time now. Bulls should be using the setback to add or go long gold.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10.

 

This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This is our alternate count for now.

                            

Trading Recommendation: Go Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2421si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 23.28. In the overnight session we moved higher reaching ahigh of 23.69.

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

It now looks likes wave -ii- is still underway as it has become an irregular type correction as shown on the Daily Silver Chart. We are now dropping in wave $c$ which has a minimum target of the wave $a$ low of 23.05. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 23.17;

61.8% = 22.75.

 

There is still an outside chance that all of wave -ii- ended at the 23.05 low but the current drop in our previous wave $ii$ of -iii- is very deep, and that is why we have moved to the current count.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-.

 

Trading Recommendation: Go Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2421bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was marginally higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1.669%. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.627%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-.

 

All of wave $b$ is complete at the 1.705% high and we are now falling in wave *c*. Our minimum target for the end of wave *c* is the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We are now watching for a break and close below our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart, which will send yield lower when it happens.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 1.705% to 1.415% appears to be a completed impulsive sequence with the current rally being the correction of the drop.

 

We still expect to drop further in wave *c* after this current correction ends.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2421spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2421sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4652.66, although closed higher at 4690.70.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 15 points!

 

The unabated rally in the SP500 is likely suggesting that our current short term count is not correct.

 

We are thinking that either all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.94 low and, ominously, if that is the case then we are now rallying in the final leg of this bull market in wave (v)!

 

Our concern with this count is that wave (iv) was very shallow, failing to even correct to our 23.6% retracement level. The other option is that wave (iii) is extending. In either case a major drop is not very far away.

 

We will need a couple more time to study our charts to determine which option appears the most plausible.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2421usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 96.83!

 

We will now be adopting our alternate count as preferred which is suggesting that we are falling in wave -iii- and within wave -iii-, wave *i* ended at the 89.17 low and the current rally is wave *ii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the possible completion of wave *ii* now. After wave *ii* ends we expect the USDX to start to move lower again in wave *iii*.

 

We will update our internal wave structure for the updated count in the coming days

 

We will be looking to short this market at the end of wave *ii*.

                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2421oil.png Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 79.21.!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

 

We are now working on the assumption that within wave (v), all of wave $i$ ended at the 85.41 high and we are now correcting in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

61.8% = 75.51;

78.6% = 71.92.

 

Wave $ii$ of (v) may now be complete at the 74.76 low.

 

We are have now extended our 61.8% retracement level and for current analysis to remain valid we would not want to drop below the 78.6% retracement level otherwise will need to conclude that all of wave i is complete at the 85.41 high and we are dropping significantly in wave ii. Wave (ii) should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Suncor is on the verge of a major breakout to the upside as shown on our Weekly Suncor Chart.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

NOV 23 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 966.16, closing at 966.36!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

It now looks like all of wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- is complete at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 936.85;

61.8% = 915.86.

 

We are still short of our 50% retracement level so we expect further weakness as wave $ii$ develops.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 32.55, closing at 33.00.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 33.95 high.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- ended at 30.96, and if that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which an initial endpoint for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

Within wave -iii-, it now looks like all of wave ^i^ ended at the 35.08 high and we are now falling in wave ^iii^ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 33.02;

61.8% = 32.53.

 

We are now getting close to our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be guard for the completion of wave ^ii^ and the start of another rally in wave ^iii^.

 

We had thought the wave $iii$ of ^i^ was going to extend as our initial projection for the wave $iii$ endpoint was $iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 34.50, where the market reached 34.48. As it turned out the original projection provided to be correct one, with no extension occurring.

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1788.40!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid.

 

Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

In a surprising but very bullish development it now looks like all of wave .d. is complete at the 1879.50 high. You may recall that last week we had suggested that a possible projection for the end of wave .d was:

 

^c^ = ^a^ = 1882.10.

 

It appears that wave .d. ended at 1879.50

 

Why would we say that gold dropping $50 is a bullish development?

 

The reason is that with wave .d. not ending much sooner than we had thought we are now falling in wave .e., which is the final leg is this long drawn out wave -iv- correction.

 

After wave .e. and -iv- end we can expect a huge thrust higher in wave -v-, which will take gold to all time new highs.

 

Wave .e. has already satisfied its minimum condition so we need to be on guard for the completion of this wave -iv- bullish triangle at any time now. Bulls should be using the setback to add or go long gold.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

                            

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued in the overnight session as we reached a low of 23.50!

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

Wave -i- of (i) of iii is complete at the 24.92 high and so is all of wave -ii- at the 23.05 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 28.73.

 

Within wave -iii- it looks like all of wave $i$ ended at 25.49, so we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 24.27;

61.8% = 23.98;

78.6% = 23.57.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone so we need to be guard for the completion of wave $ii$ and the start of another rally higher in wave $iii$.

 

We still expect much higher prices in silver as wave -iii- continues to develop.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session we have reached a high of 1.665%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-.

 

All of wave $b$ is complete at the 1.705% high and we are now falling in wave *c*. Our minimum target for the end of wave *c* is the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We are now watching for a break and close below our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart, which will send yield lower when it happens. On the Intraday Chart the drop from 1.705% to 1.415% appears to be a completed impulsive sequence with the current rally being the correction of the drop. We still expect to drop further in wave *c* after this current correction ends.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching another all-time high at 4743.83, although we closed lower at 4682.94! In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 4 points.

 

The unabated rally in the SP500 is likely suggesting that our current short term count is not correct. We are thinking that either all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.94 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in the final leg of this bull market in wave (v).

 

Our concern with this count is that wave (iv) was very shallow, failing to even correct to our 23.6% retracement level. The other option is that wave (iii) is extending. In either case a major drop is not very far away.

 

We will need a couple more days to study our charts to determine which option appears the most plausible.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321usd.png

 

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 96.62!

 

We will now be adopting our alternate count as preferred which is suggesting that we are falling in wave -iii- and within wave -iii-, wave *i* ended at the 89.17 low and the current rally is wave *ii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the possible completion of wave *ii* now. After wave *ii* ends we expect the USDX to start to move lower again in wave *iii*.

 

We will updated our internal wave structure for the updated count in the coming days

 

We will be looking to short this market at the end of wave *ii*.

                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 74.76, but after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 77.16. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 76.56 level!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

 

We are now working on the assumption that within wave (v), all of wave $i$ ended at the 85.41 high and we are now correcting in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

61.8% = 75.51;

78.6% = 71.92.

 

We are have now extended our 61.8% retracement level and for current analysis to remain valid we would not want to drop below the 78.6% retracement level otherwise will need to conclude that all of wave i is complete at the 85.41 high and we are dropping significantly in wave ii. Wave (ii) which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Suncor is on the verge of a major breakout to the upside as shown on our Weekly Suncor Chart.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

nov 23 EW CHARTS!

Something went wrong in the email send of the Captain’s morning post today.

Will send if get later.

He updated the charts and here they are

CDNX DAILY:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321cdnx.png

GDX 60MIN

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321gdx60.png

GDX DAILY

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321gdxd.png

GOLD DAILY

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321gold.png

SILVER DAILY

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321si.png

BOND DAILY

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321bond.png

SP500 DAILY

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321spd.png

SP500 120MIN

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321sp120.png

USDX

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321usd.png

OIL DAILY

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2321oil.png

 

THANKS!

EDITOR.

WILL SEND UPDATE WHEN GET FROM CAPTAIN.

 

 

 

NOV 22 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov222cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 993.33 and closing on its high of 993.33!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $i$ of (i) of -iii is complete at the 1025.77 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 936.85;

61.8% = 915.86.

 

We are still short of our 50% retracement level so we expect further weakness as wave $ii$ develops.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 33.66, closing at 33.67.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 33.95 high. We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- ended at 30.96, and if that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which an initial endpoint for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

Within wave -iii-, wave $i$ ended at 32.69 and all of wave $ii$ at 30.68. We are now rallying in wave $iii$ which appears to be complete at the 35.08 high, and we are now falling in wave $iv$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 34.28;

38.2% = 33.51.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave $iv$ and the start of another rally in wave $v$. We suspect that wave $v$ will reach the next major resistance level which is the 35.82 high.

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1838.00!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

We are now rallying in wave $iii$ of ^c^ which has a projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 1911.20.

 

We have been a bit surprised with extent of current correction and are thinking that all of wave $iii$ ended short of or current project at the 1879.50 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave $iv$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 1850.90;

38.2% = 1833.30.

 

The other option is that wave $iii$ is extending and is that is the case then we suspect that all of wave -iv- bullish triangle ended at the 1721.10 low, as described below. A test of the breakout of the 1835 level appears likely now.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

                            

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221si.png

 

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 24.56. After that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 24.95.

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

Wave -i- of (i) of iii is complete at the 24.92 high and so is all of wave -ii- at the 23.05 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 28.73.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 25.49 to the current low of 24.56 is corrective looking which is suggesting that once this corrective move ends silver will be heading higher again!

 

We expect higher prices in silver as wave -iii- develops.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221bond.png

  

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 1.521%. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.586%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-.

 

All of wave $b$ is complete at the 1.705% high and we are now falling in wave *c*. Our minimum target for the end of wave *c* is the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We are now watching for a break and close below our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart, which will send yield lower when it happens.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 1.705% to 1.415% appears to be a completed impulsive sequence with the current rally being the correction of the drop. This corrective rally maybe be complete at the 1.646% high. We still expect to drop further in wave *c* after this current correction ends.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was initially higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 4717.95, although we closed lower at 4697.96..

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 11 points!

 

The unabated rally in the SP500 is likely suggesting that our current short term count is not correct. We are thinking that either all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.94 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in the final leg of this bull market in wave (v).

 

Our concern with this count is that wave (iv) was very shallow, failing to even correct to our 23.6% retracement level. The other option is that wave (iii) is extending. In either case a major drop is not very far away.

 

We will need a couple more days to study our charts to determine which option appears the most plausible.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 96.25.  In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 96.11 level.

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that all of wave -iii- ended at the 89.17 low and that current rally is wave -iv- which is likely nearing completion. Wave -iv- looks to be have become a 3 wave corrective pattern with wave *c* becoming an ending diagonal triangle that has a throwover in its final leg.

 

This rally should be ending very soon. The current retracement for all of wave -iv- has reached our 61.8% level which is:

 

61.8% = 96.28.

 

This depth of retracement  for wave -iv- is quite deep, but if this is still wave -i-v then we need to be on guard for its completion as we have reached the 61.8% retracement level. We also have another projected endpoint for all of wave *c* of -i- at:

 

*c* = 1.618*a* = 96.48.

 

The other option is that we are still falling in a subdividing wave -iii-, with wave *i* ending at 89.17 and all or most of wave *ii* ending at the 96.27 high. If that is the case then we should soon turn sharply lower in wave *iii* of -iii-.

 

We will be looking to short this market again in the days ahead.

                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2221oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 74.83!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

 

We are now working on the assumption that within wave (v), all of wave $i$ ended at the 85.41 high and we are now correcting in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

61.8% = 75.51;

78.6% = 71.92.

 

We are have now extended our 61.8% retracement level and for current analysis to remain valid we would not want to drop below the 78.6% retracement level otherwise will need to conclude that all of wave i is complete at the 85.41 high and we are dropping significantly in wave ii. Wave (ii) which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Suncor is on the verge of a major breakout to the upside as shown on our Weekly Suncor Chart.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

NOV 21 WEEKLY CHARTS POST

 

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121gold.png  

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 1879.50, although we closed at little lower at 1851.60.

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and our current preferred count is still suggesting that our lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle is still underway.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave .c. at 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d..

 

Wave .d., looks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave ^b^ ending at the 1721.10 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave ^c^ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20, other wise we will adopt one of our alternate counts.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

We are still short of our $iii$ projected high of 1911.20 so we believe after this current correction ends we will be moving higher again.

 

There’s an outside that chance that all of wave $iii$ ended at the 1879.50 high and if that is the case then we now correcting in wave $iv$.

 

If you look at past history you will see that wave $v$’s are usually stronger in the metals that wave $iii$’s.

 

Our current wave ^c^ of .d. rally has become an impulsive sequence with all of wave $i$ ending at the 1815.50 high and all of wave $ii$ at the 1758.50 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave $iii$ of ^c^, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 1911.20.

 

If wave $iii$ is still underway then we should expect higher prices next week.

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was slightly lower this past week reaching a low of 24.61, closing at 24.78. 

                                                                  

All of wave ii of 3 ended at 21.41.

 

We are now rallying in the initial stages of wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

 -iii- = 1.618-i- = 28.73.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 25.49 to the current low of 24.61 is corrective looking which I suggested that once this small correction ends silver will be moving higher again!                                  

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 1.646% but after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1.521%, closing at 1.536%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.691% high. We think the current rally is a correction of the impulsive sequence that ran from 1.691% to 1.415%.

 

After this correction ends we expect yields to turn lower again as we fall in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

This corrective rally may be complete at the 1.646% level

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnovl2121oil.png  

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply lower this week reaching a low of 75.09, closing at 75.94!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we believe we are still moving higher in wave (v). Within wave (v) we think wave $i$ ended at 85.41 and all or most of wave $ii$ at the 75.09 low. If that is the case then we should expect crude to start to move higher again in wave $iii$ of (v). We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level for all of wave $ii$.

 

The other unlikely option is that wave i of C is complete at the 85.41 high and we are now starting to fall in wave iii, which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 24.71, closing at 25.03!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

We are on the verge of a major breakout as shown on the Weekly Suncor Chart. We expect much higher prices in Suncor over the next couple of months.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov21sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 moved basically sideways this past week although we closed a bit higher at 4697.96.

 

It appears unlikely now that all of wave (iii) ended at the 4545.85 high as the drop off that high to 4278.97 was likely too shallow to be all of wave (iv). It could be that we are still extending higher in wave (iii).

 

We continue to monitor, and will provide a further updates in the days ahead. We take real positions of size in this market.  Currently:

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121usd.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 96.27, closing at 96.03.

 

We have undated our count to now suggest that with wave -iii- of (i) of iii ended at the 89.17 low and that the current rally is wave -iv-, although the depth of the retracement is now around 61.8 which is getting a very deep for a wave -iv-. %,

 

The other very bearish option is that all of wave (i) of iii ended the 89.7 low and the current rally is wave (ii), which is nearing completion.

 

If this alternate count is correct then the USDX will be heading much lower than our current preferred count is suggesting.

 

We will likely be shorting this market soon and maybe early this week!

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121cdnx.png  

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially marginally higher this past week reaching a high of 1025.77, although after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 974.03.

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

It looks like all of wave $i$ of -iii- ended at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially marginally higher this past week reaching a high of 35.08, although after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 33.66, closing at 33.67!.

 

All of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and we are now rallying in wave *iii*, which has the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii*, all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii ended at 33.95  and all of wave -ii- at the 30.96 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii- which has and initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

It looks like within wave ^i^ wave $iii$ ended at the 35.08 and we are now falling in an almost complete wave $iv$ correction. After wave $iv$ ends we expect one more rally in wave $v$ to complete all of wave ^i^ of -iii-.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov2121bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 55655, closing at 59548!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which, basis the counts, has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

Within wave B or 2 we think all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave (b) which now looks to be complete at the 68979 high.

 

Time continues to be an issue, and so we expect to fall back in wave (c) back to at least the wave (a) low to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction.

 

Editor note:  Your editor, as I’m sure many of the subs are… is interested to hear about even the roughest projections for the Bitcoin C wave rally.  He’ll be discussing possible targets with athe Captain this week, and relaying directly to you!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew