FEB 20 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1905.00, closing at 1899.40!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and, incredibly, our current preferred count is still suggesting that our lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle is still underway.

 

Within that triangle it looks like wave .d. is still underway, but that may be complete at the 1905.00 high.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

If it does then one of our two alternate counts will be in play, as we would now be rallying sharply higher in wave -v-.  Ultimately, it’s important for all subs to remember we are LONG GOLD IN A BIG WAY… and trying to trade only the countertrends shorter term wave counts is a difficult proposition.

 

Assuming that all of wave .d. is complete or mostly complete at the 1905.00 high, then we should still expect another drop in wave .e. to complete all of wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher wave -v-, which should take gold to all time new highs.

 

Our alternate counts still remain in play as follows:

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-.  

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long and strong, with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was also higher this past week reaching a high of 24.11, closing at 23.99.  

                                                                  

We still believe that wave ii is NOT complete, although we are starting to think maybe it is at the second 21.41 low.

 

The potentially good news: Our alternate count we are suggesting that all of wave ii ended at the second 21.41 low and we have already started to rally higher in the initial stages of wave iii.

 

Our current count suggests that all of wave i ended at 29.91, and within wave ii, wave (a) ended at 21.81, wave (b) at 30.35, and we are now falling in an ending diagonal triangle wave (c) formation that has a minimum target of 21.41. Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

Within wave -v-, all of wave $a$ ended at 21.41 and all of wave $b$ at the 24.75 high. We are now falling in a subdividing wave $c$ to at least the 21.41 low, but more likely into our retracement zone for all of wave ii, before it ends. We do a projection for the end of wave $c$ as:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 20.67.   

 

Within wave $c$, wave ^i^ ended at 21.98 and all or most of wave ^ii^ at 24.11, and if that is the case then we should see silver start to drop again in wave ^iii^.                               

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50 

 

Again, it’s very important for investors to get positioned for the big wave action rather trying avoid all the little subwaves down.

 

It is really all about the big C wave and likely target of around $86.50!

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long from 14.85, with puts as our stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

The bond is another very interesting market right now, and we’ll get to why that is in a moment.

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially marginally higher this past week reaching a high of 2.065, although after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1.918%, closing at 1.932%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades our analysis suggests we are rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s!

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b*, perhaps at the 2.065% high. Our internal wave count for all of wave *b* shows a double 3 wave correction pattern which we think is getting very close to completion. After wave *b* ends we still expect a another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%. 

 

We do have projection for the end of wave *b* as:

 

*b* = 1.618*a* = 2.159%

 

We are watching for a shorting opportunity early next week.  This is one small subwave count we want to play (with stoploss).  Here’s why:  We believe a crash phase of the stock market would see hug money move into bonds, pushing yields lower temporarily.

 

For those of you who want to play the bond action with ETFs rather than the “Big Boy” futures contracts the Captain uses, take a look at TLT-nyse (non-levered) and TMF (leveraged) to short rates and go long bond prices…

 

And TBF (non-levered) and TMV (leveraged) to play the major swing higher in rates and lower bond prices.

                                                         

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:                                                                                     

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially higher again this past week reaching a high of 95.82, but after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 87.46, closing at 90.21.

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, which has an initial projection for its completion at :

 

iii =1.681i = 176.47!

 

Within wave iii, we are likely getting very close to completing wave (i).

 

We did have key weekly reversal lower last week, which might be signaling that all of wave (i) is complete at the 95.82 high.

 

After wave (i) ends we expect a wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally. We will likely provide those retracement levels this week.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77!

C= 1.618A = 244.78!

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 28.60, closing at 29.07!

 

We are still working on wave iii and continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

Wave (iii) appears to be subdividing with wave -i- of (iii) ending at the 26.97 high and all of wave -ii- at 22.22.

 

Wave -iii- has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 38.50.

 

We expect higher prices to continue now, with our next resistance level at the 34.56 level.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                            

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower this past week reaching low of 4327.22, closing at 4348.87!

 

It looks like our ending diagonal triangle formation ended a failure high at 4748.83, and wave V is now complete at the high.

 

We believe the SP500 is now heading into a multi-year bear market, probably the worst in the history of America, and we have broken our Armageddon Support Line.

 

Within this current drop we likely completed wave (i) at the 4222.62 low and likely all of wave (ii) at the 4588.92 high.

 

We should now be falling in wave (iii) and within wave (iii), wave -i- ended at 4364.84 and likely all of wave -ii- at 4489.55.

 

If that is the case we should now falling sharply lower in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 4126.99.

 

Our initial project for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3737.51.

 

 

Active Positions: Heavily Short, with calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022usd.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was marginally lower this past week reaching a low of 95.67, closing at 96.02!

 

Within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at 89.17. We are now rallying in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at the 97.44 high and if that is the case then we are starting to fall sharply lower in wave (iii). A break of our major uptrend line now will confirm to us that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 97.44 high.

 

We are still expecting a rally off of that red trendline next week which we plan to use as an opportunity to short this market, risking to 97.45.  

 

Active Positions: Trying to short at 96.50, risking to 97.45.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower this past week reaching a low of 846.13, closing at 852.15!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

Wave $i$ of -iii- ended at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$. We have updated our internal count for wave $ii$ to suggest that it has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern that remains incomplete.

 

We should now be falling in our second wave (c). It continues to look like wave $ii$ is still not complete at the 802.71 low.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56!

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher again this past week reaching a high of 35.11, closing at 34.50!

 

We believe that wave *ii* is still underway as we work on our 3rd three wave corrective pattern. Our retracement levels for wave -ii- is:

 

50% = 30.98;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

It is starting to look like wave *ii* may be complete at the 28.33 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to rally in the initial stages of wave *iii*.

 

 IMPORTANT:

 

We are going to wait to see if gold moves above the 1919.20 high, before we move to this idea as our preferred count.

 

The short term picture within the GDX is bit unclear at the moment.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37!                                                         

 

We do have higher targets also!!

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was lower this past week reaching low of 39497, closing at 39902!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

Within wave B or 2 all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low and wave (b) is at the 68979 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (c), which should be heading back to at least the wave (a) low of 28908 to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Our 61.8% retracement level is lower at around 25000.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction.

 

The large rally in Bitcoin over the last couple of weeks may be suggesting that our current count, within wave (b) is not correct and that wave (b) maybe becoming a large and somewhat grotesque bearish triangle.

 

Within this bearish triangle, wave a ended at 68979 and wave b at 32991. If that is the case then we are now rallying higher in wave c, which cannot trade above the wave a high of 68979. For now this will remain as our alternate count.

 

After wave 2 or B ends we expect a massive rally in wave 3 or C.  Investors who are not Crypto savvy can look at funds like GBTC, MSTR, BITW, and ETHE (and actual ETFs in Canada) to play the C wave monster!!   

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew