JAN 3 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan322cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

CDNX was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 940.38, closing at 939.18!

 

All of wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- is complete at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 885.98.

 

We have now deeply exceeded our 78.6% retracement level and although for the moment we are still showing this drop as wave $ii$ of -iii-, we doubt that our current analysis is correct. Wave -ii- is probably still underway and we will therefore likely be revisiting 847.92 again before all of wave -ii- ends.

 

We will update our count in the next day or so, after we take a closer look.

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64. Not so sure about wave -ii- ending at 847.92 however.

 

If wave -ii- ended at 847.92, then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan322gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan322gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 32.08, closing at 32.03.

 

It now looks like wave *ii* is still underway and is going to become a triple 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

We are working on the third corrective pattern as shown on the 60 Min and Daily GDX Chart.

 

Within this third pattern we likely completed all of wave ^a^ at the 28.90 low.

 

If that is the case we should expect a rally in wave ^b^ which will be followed by another drop in our third wave ^c^.

 

Our minimum target for the end of third wave ^c^ is 28.83.

 

Our retracement levels for our third wave ^b^ are:

 

50% = 31.99;

61.8% = 32.72.

 

We have now reached our 50% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave ^b^ at any time now. After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to finally complete all of wave *ii*.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.98;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Updates on Gold and Gold Indices are arrived.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated December 31st,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 27.74. We are now falling in an irregular type wave -ii- correction which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.20;

61.8% = 18.41.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of a large rally in wave -iii-. Within wave -ii-, wave $c$ appears to have become an ending diagonal triangle, which could be complete at the 17.27 low. After wave -ii- ends we will provide our first projections for the end of wave -iii-.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 31st , 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated December 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan322gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued early in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1832.80.

 

After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1821.90.

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Wave .d. ended at 1879.50.

 

We are now falling in wave .e., and within wave .e. it looks like all of wave ^a^ of .e. ended at the 1753.00 low. We should now be rallying in wave ^b^ of .e. and after wave ^b^ ends we should expect one more drop in wave ^c^ of .e. to complete all of wave .e. and our bullish wave -iv- triangle. The minimum target for wave ^c^ is the wave ^a^ low of 1753.00.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave ^b^ are:

 

50% = 1816.30;

61.8% = 1831.20.

 

We are have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave ^b^ and the start of our wave ^c^ drop. Wave ^b^ could be complete at the 1832.80 high.

 

After wave ^b^ ends we expect one more drop back to at least the 1753.00 level.

 

 After wave ^c^, .e. and -iv- end we can expect a huge thrust higher in wave -v-, which will take gold to all time new highs.

 

Bulls should still be using this setback to add or go long gold.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

                            

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan322si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued early in the overnight session as we have reached high of 23.44.

 

After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 23.12.

 

Wave ii has become more complex and is still underway. Wave i still ended at the 29.91 high, but within wave ii, it looks like wave (a) ended at 21.81 and wave (b) at 30.35. We are now falling in wave (c) which has become an ending diagonal triangle.

 

Within that diagonal triangle we are now falling in wave -v- of (c) which a minimum target of the wave -iii- low of 21.41.

 

 Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We believe that within wave -v- we are currently falling in wave $a$. which likely ended at the 21.41 low. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave $b$ rally that will be followed by another drop in wave $c$ to complete all of wave -v- , (c) and ii.

 

The minimum target for wave $c$ will be the wave $a$ low of 21.41.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave $b$ are:

 

50% = 23.45;

61.8% = 23.93.

 

We have now reached our 50% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ and the start of another drop in wave $c$ of -v- of ii.

 

Wave ii is still expected to at least reach our 50% retracement level before all wave ii ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan322bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 1.491%.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.539%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave flat correction pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. Wave *b* of -ii- is now complete at the 1.691% high.

 

We are moving lower in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Longer term our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan322spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan322sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 4765.75.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up sharply by about 30 points!

 

It now looks like wave (v) is going to extend and within wave (v), all of wave -i- ended at 4743.83 and all of wave -ii- at 4495.12. We should now be rallying again in wave -iii- which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 5247.31

 

We expect higher prices now in wave -iii- of (v).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan322usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 95.57.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 95.94!

 

All of wave (i) of iii ended at 89.17 and if that is the case we are now rallying in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels: retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the possible completion of wave (ii) at the 96.94 high.

 

We are watching a developing bullish triangle formation which started at the 96.94 high.

 

If that observation is correct then once this bullish triangle ends we can expect one more rally in wave (ii) above the 96.94 high, before it ends.

 

A break now below 95.54 would eliminate this triangle option.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect the USDX to start to move lower again in wave (iii).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 97.00.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 97.00!

                                                                                                                     

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan322oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 74.97.

 

In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 75.56 level!

 

We are working on the assumption that wave i is still underway as shown on our Daily Crude Chart. We believe that we working on an expanding and extending wave (iv) of i bullish triangle.

 

Within our triangle we may have completed wave $c$ at the 62.46 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $d$. Wave $d$ cannot trade above the wave $b$ high of 85.41 for this triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Wave $c$ cannot trade below the wave $a$ low of 57.25.

 

Wave $c$ is complete at the 62.46 low and we are now rallying in wave $d$..

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97. We are now falling in wave -ii- which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.94;

61.8% = 20.75.

 

We still expect lower prices ahead as wave -ii- develops, although we cannot rule the possibility that all of wave -ii- is now complete at the 22.22 low. If that is the case then we should expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii- to begin very soon.

 

We are once again challenging our major red downtrend line.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew