apr 20 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021apr20cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 926.98, closing at 929.17. 

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

It is now looking that wave $ii$ is becoming a more defined 3 wave corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily CNDX Chart. Within wave $ii$, wave *a* ended at 919.25 and wave *b* at 958.07. If that is the case then we are now falling in wave *c* which a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 919.25.

 

There is a chance that all of wave *c* and $ii$ are complete at the 922.57 low, but we will give this market another day or so before we conclude that.

 

After wave $ii$ ends we should expect a very sharp rally higher in wave $iii$, and we will provide our first projections for its completion after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

GDX The was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 35.59, closing at 35.79.

 

Our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low and we are now starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low. We are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 37.86     

 

Last week we aggressively broke above our seven (7) month upper red downtrend line that has defined the upper bound of our wave *ii* correction. In the days ahead we may drop back to test this breakout, but we do not have to, before we move sharply higher.

 

We should now be heading higher to at least reach our first projected endpoint for wave -iii- at the 38.00 level.                         

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1763.70.

 

After that low was made we moved higher currently trading at the 1772.50 level.

                                                                                           

We are now rallying in wave (i) of *iii* and within wave (i) we completed wave -i- at the 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. We have now exceeded our first projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- which is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1782.70.

 

We are looking at wave -iii- continuing to move higher to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 1846.70.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 25.67. In the overnight session we moved higher reaching a high of 26.10.

 

Longer term all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low, and we are now rallying higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*, with next resistance at 26.74.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr20921bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1.615%.

 

In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.587%.

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4150.47. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 15 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have now reached our target for we need to be guard for its completion soon, unless it is now planning to extend to our next projected endpoint which would be:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are also going to take a look at our internal wave count for all of wave v, as we think the subdivisions may need some adjustments.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 90.84.

 

After that low was made we moved a bit higher to currently be trading at the 91.06 level.

 

All of wave -iv- is now complete at the 93.47 high and we are now starting to fall in the initial stages of wave -v-.  

 

We should continue to drop.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we initially moved higher reaching ahigh of 64.37, but after that high was made we moved lower to currently be trading at the 63.81 level!

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, and all or most of wave ^b^ at the 63.48 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect one more drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew