APR 4 EASTER POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr421gold1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially sharply lower this past week, reaching a low of 1677.30, and by the end of the week we had recovered almost all of those losses to close only marginally lower at 1730.45!

                                                                          

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 1673.30 low and if that is the case then we should now be starting to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^.

 

Our next challenge will be a break and close above our red horizontal resistance at around 1770.00/1790.00 and then a further break above our red downtrend line that are both shown on the Weekly Gold Chart.

 

If wave ^iii^ is not underway then within wave (i) of ^iii^. we completed wave -i- at 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at 1677.30, and we should therefore now be rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial target of 1783.00

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of wave ^iii^ when we are sure that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.     

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr421si1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 23.74, but by the end of the week we also recovered most of those losses to close at 24.95.  

                                                                  

We updated our count this week to now suggest that all of wave ii is complete at the 21.96 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying higher in wave iii of 3, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

iii = 1.618i = 51.52.

 

Within wave iii, we completed wave (i) at 29.91 and continue to work on a lengthy wave (ii) correction. Within wave (ii) we completed wave -a- at 24.04 and wave -b- at 30.35.

 

We should be falling in the tail end of our wave -c- ending diagonal triangle that has a minimum target of 24.04, which is the wave -a- low.

 

It now looks likely that all of wave -c- and (ii) are now complete at the 23.74 low. If that is the case we have now started to rally sharply higher in wave (iii).

 

A break above the upper trendline of our diagonal triangle which is marked by the highs at 28.43 and 26.74, would confirm that all of wave -c- and (ii) are complete at the 23.74 low.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

We have cancelled our buy at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a low of 1.765%, closing at 1.679%.

 

It appears that the bear market in US interest is now over and it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades we should be rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

Within that impulsive sequence we are rallying in wave (iii) which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618 (i) =1.910%.

 

We expect to move higher in the weeks ahead as we head toward the 1.910% level. We are currently working on the internal subdivision count within wave (iii). After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr421oil1.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was higher this past week reaching a high of 62.27, closing at 61.45.                                                                                      

 

It now looks like wave -i- is complete at the 67.98 high so we should now be falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81

61.8% = 46.81.

 

We are also challenging our multi-year breakout of our major downtrend line and this week we managed to close above that line!

 

Unfortunately, we are still short of retracement levels for our wave -ii- correction, so we still expect lower prices ahead.

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (iii), with all of wave (iii) having and initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr421su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was higher this past week reaching a high of 21.54, closing at 21.53.

 

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave iii. Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -i- ended at the 19.94 and likely all of wave -ii- at the 16.29 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-=31.29.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                               

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr421sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 4020.63, closing at 4019.87.

 

Our current projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We are getting close to our projected endpoint for all of wave (iii). After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retracements between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

At current levels this should result in a 300 to 500 point correction in the SP500.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr421usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 93.47, closing at 92.95.

 

Wave -iii- is complete at the 89.17 low and we are rallying in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 91.95;

38.2% = 93.68.

 

Wave -iv- looks to now have become more complex and is still developing, although we think it should be ending very soon. After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v-.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr421cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past reaching a high of 965.84, closing at 960.84.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

Wave .iii. is now subdividing and if that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii- of .iii. Our initial projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- =1.618-i- = 1592.50.                           

 

Our minimum long-term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ and a nice portfolio of CDNX juniors, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr421gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 31.65, and we closed higher, at 33.60!

 

Our retracement level for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.98;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

We believe all of wave *ii* is likely complete at the 30.64 low.

 

We now need to be on guard for the start of a major rally in wave *iii*.

 

If all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 30.64 low then our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

If wave *iii* is now underway then within wave ^i^ of *iii*, we completed wave -i- at 34.48 and wave -ii- at 31.65.

 

We should now be rallying in wave -iii-.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                       

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions at 31.50!

 

Bitcoin: 

 

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr421bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was higher this past week reaching a high of 60062, closing at 59988.

 

Bitcoin started trading in 2014 on this chart, and as you can see in our Bitcoin Weekly Chart that it has risen sharply form that inception date.

 

In the longer-term Bitcoin appears to rising in an impulse fashion as we are getting close to finishing this first impulsive sequence with wave (3) of 1 or A ending at the 58349 high.

 

It looks like all of wave (4) ended at the 43665 low and we still rallying in wave (5).

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave (5) rally at the current high of 61749.

 

This current wave (5) rally will complete a 5wave impulsive sequence for this market.

 

Either a wave 1 or A will be completed and the next move for this market will be a 50 to 61.8% retracement correction in either wave 2 or B of the entire move in bitcoin.

For example a 61.8% retracement from the current high would see bitcoin drop to the 24000 level.

 

Thanks!

Happy Easter Holidays…

Captain & Crew