apr 6 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

The Captain will be in Calgary between April 7th and April 9th. No Posting on April 8th and 9th, although the Captain will be monitoring the markets and provide any important Intraday Updates.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr621cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was marginally higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 966.99, closing at 961.25.                         

                                                                                                                                                

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high. If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

From an Ewaves point of we have satisfied the minimum requirements for the completion of all of wave $ii$ at the 919.25 low and have also reached our 61.8% retracement for all of wave $ii$. Wave $ii$ looks to have a 3 wave corrective sequence on the Intraday Chart.

 

We now need to be on guard for the end of wave $ii$ and the start of our sharp wave $iii$ rally higher.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and some awesome juniors, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr621gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr621gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 34.01, closing at 33.71.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all or most of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low. Our retracement levels for all of this wave -ii- correction are:

 

50% = 32.58;

61.8% = 32.11.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we really need to be on for the end of wave -ii- and the start of a sharp rally higher in wave -iii- of ^i^. Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 37.86                             

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr621gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was marginally higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1739.50.

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows.

 

The final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the larger ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

It looks like we have finally broken our above our blue down trendline in last Thursday’s trading session, which is a very bullish sign.

 

In the short term believe that a small wave -i- ended at the 1738.00 high and now all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. low, as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. We should now be rallying higher in wave -iii-, with our first projection for its completion at:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1782.70.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr621si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 24.70. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 25.25.

 

Longer term, we are working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low, and we are now rallying higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 28.11, and likely all of wave -ii- at the 23.79 low. Our last retracement level for wave -ii- is:

 

78.6%= 23.28.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of a major trend reversal in silver as we start to move higher in wave -iii-.

 

We a need a break and close above 26.74, to confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.                                                                                                                                               

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr621bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1.745%.

 

 In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.679%.

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr621spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr621sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was sharply higher in Thursday’s trading session reaching another all-time high at 4083.42!

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 5 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have now reached our target so we need to be guard for wave completion soon, unless it is now planning to extend to our next projected endpoint which would be:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr621usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 92.53.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 92.80, although the rally form 92.53 to the current high of 92.80 looks corrective, which is suggesting lower prices lie ahead.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 91.95.

38.2% = 93.68.

 

It looks like wave -iv- has become more complex than we had original thought, but we still believe is nearing completion, which may have occurred at the 93.47 high.

 

A break of our red trendline shown on our Daily USDX Chart would confirm that all of wave -iv- is complete at the 93.47 high and we have started to drop lower in wave -v-.                             

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr621oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 57.63.

 

 In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 60.34.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

We still expect further weakness. On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a 5 wave drop from the 67.98 high to the 57.27 low. If that is the case then this completes our first drop in a possible 3 wave corrective pattern that will form all of our wave $ii$ correction.

 

Therefore we should now expect the rally again (50% to 61.8% of the first drop) before we drop one more time, below the 57.27 low to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will breakthrough this line decisively to move sharply higher.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew