aug 10 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1020cdnx.png  

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 729.80, closing at 739.98.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of .i. We have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- at the current high of 722.82, from an absolute price point of view, but it still looks like that wave -v- impulsive sequence is still not complete.

 

We should see at least more push above the 758.11 high.

 

After wave -v- and .i. end we expect a more sizable correction in wave .ii., which should see a retracement of between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave .i. rally.

 

Next resistance for the GDXJ is the 70.00 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1020gdx.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1020gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 42.25, closing at 42.74.

 

It now looks like wave $iv$ is still underway as either a bullish triangle or an irregular type correction.

 

Our preferred option is now the bullish triangle where it could be possible that all of wave !c! is complete at the 42.24 low.

 

If that is the case we should expect a wave !d! rally that will then be followed by a wave !e! drop to complete the triangle formation and all of wave $iv$.

 

For our triangle formation to remain valid we cannot drop below the wave !a! low of 40.96!

 

After wave $iv$ ends we expect another ally in wave $v$ to complete all of wave ^iii^. After wave ^iii^ ends we expect a wave ^iv^ correction that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^iii^ rally.  

 

We cannot rule the possibility that wave ^iii^ is going to extend to our 58.31 projection point also.  

 

On the Weekly Chart the next major resistance is at the 51.67 level.  

 

Our current projections for the end of wave -v- and all of wave ^iii^ are:

 

^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 43.32;

^iii^ = 4.25^i^ = 58.31.

 

Longer term first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We suspect that wave 3 will likely extend higher then the above projection also, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will be updating our analysis and charts early next week (August 10th)…current analysis is to June 10th for the following:

 

Kinross: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projection of 9.68, although we suspect that wave (iii) will extend in length as our second projection for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Within wave (iii) we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 9.01;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in wave iii rally which has the following projections for its completion:

 

iii = 1.618i = 39.92;

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. If that is the case then we are now rallying sharply in wave -iii- of (iii) of iii.

 

Within wave iii we are rallying sharply in wave (iii), which has a projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

Within wave iii we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 94.44.

 

Wave (iii) is now subdividing with wave -i- ending at 68.84 and all of wave -ii- at 52.33. WE should now be rallying sharply higher again in wave -iii-.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoints:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 433.46;

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 1.618i = 351.99;

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoints:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 163.16;

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 148.70;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1020gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in Friday’s day session reaching low of 2015.00.

 

In the overnight session as we have moved higher reaching a high of 2035.60.   

 

We are now rallying sharply in wave $v$ of ^iii^. This next rally in gold will end all of wave ^iii^, which has a current projection of:

 

^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 2209.00

 

We believe we have one more push after the 2078.00 level, before all of wave $v$ and ^iii^ ends.

 

After wave ^iii^ ends we will see a correction in wave ^iv^ that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^iii^ rally.

 

After wave ^iv^ ends we should expect another rally in wave ^v^ to complete all of wave *iii*.

 

Our initial projection for the end of all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1020si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 27.46. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 28.84.

 

We have updated our current count to now suggest that the current rally is wave -iii- of (i) and not wave -v- of (i). Our current projection for the completion of wave -iii- is:

 

-ii- = 4.25-i- = 32.51.

 

We are still expecting at least one more push after the 29.92 high before all of wave -iii-ends. After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.   

 

Trading Recommendation: Can go long, using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1020bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 0.569{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 0.554{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and we continue to drift lower in wave ^b^.

 

After wave ^b^ ends we expect to head higher in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1020spd.png  

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1020sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was marginally higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 3352.54. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are also up marginally, about 3 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), all of -i- of (iii) is complete at the 3233.13 high and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2999.89;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2944.84.

 

As you can see on our 120 Min SP500 Chart wave .a. is complete at the 2965.66 low, so we are now rallying in complex wave .b., which appears to still be underway.

 

It looks like wave .b. has become a double 3 wave pattern as shown on the 120 Min SP500 Chart. We are likely getting close to its completion. After wave .b. ends we still expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -ii-. Wave .c. should drop to at least the wave .a. low of 2965.66.                                                                                                            

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1020usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 93.66.

 

We continue to fall sharply in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave -iii- and the start of a wave -iv- rally, that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop.

 

We are still waiting for confirmation that all of wave -iii- is complete at the 92.51 low, however, as we still could see another drop lower before all of wave -iii- ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1020oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 41.06. In the overnight session as we have moved higher reaching a high of 41.96.

 

For the time being we are still assuming that all of wave (i) ended at the 42.51 high. If that is the case then we are now falling in the initial stages of wave (ii), which should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the enter wave (i) rally.

 

We are still not totally convinced of our current count, so we will give this market a couple more days, before we provide our retracement levels for our wave (ii) correction, as wave (i) may now be extending higher.      

 

Suncor: Within wave C we likely completed wave (i) of i at 19.16 and likely all of wave (ii) at the 13.98 low, although we cannot now rule the possibility that it is becoming an a irregular type correction, and in this case we are no heading back to at least the 13.98 low to complete all of wave (ii).  

 

If wave (ii) is complete the we should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projection for its completion:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 29.43.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                          

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew