aug 12 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1220cdnx.png  

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 716.85, closing at 717.45.

 

We are now looking at the possibility that all of wave -v- of .i. and all of wave .i. could be complete at the 755.53 high. If that is the case then we should now be falling in wave .ii..

 

The rally form the wave -iv- low of 648.47 does not look full complete at the 755.53 high, so we are still thinking another move higher within wave -v- of .i. could still be possible.

 

The other concern we have with this count is that it is predicting a much larger correction, then our current counts in gold, silver and the GDX.

 

In fact, as you will see below, those corrections could already be complete.

 

Our other thought on the CDNX count is that we are approaching the completion an extended wave -iii- of .i., which then lines up with the counts in the other markets that we mentioned above.

 

For the time being we will stay with our current count, but suspect it is likely not correct.

 

After wave -v- and .i. end we expect a more sizable correction in wave .ii., which should see a retracement of between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave .i. rally.

 

Next resistance for the GDXJ is the 70.00 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold.   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug12120gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1220gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 38.88, closing at 39.07.

 

Wave ^iii^ is complete at the 45.78 high and we are now falling in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

We have shown a possible 3 wave corrective pattern on our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts, with all or most of wave -a- ending at the 38.88 low.

 

If that is the case we should now start to rally in wave -b-, which will then be followed by another drop in wave -c- to complete all of wave -iv-.

 

Wave -c- should drop at least back to the wave -a- low.

 

Another possible corrective pattern for wave -iv- could be a bullish triangle with the first leg of that formation being complete or almost complete at the 38.88 low. In this, we have already reache our lowest point within wave -iv-.

 

Although we are still a little short of our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, there is an outside chance that all of wave -iv- could be complete at the 38.88 low also, as the gold and silver market are very volatile at the moment.

 

Longer term first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We suspect that wave 3 will likely extend higher then the above projection also, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will be updating our analysis and charts early next week (August 17th)…current analysis is to June 10th for the following:

 

Kinross: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projection of 9.68, although we suspect that wave (iii) will extend in length as our second projection for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Within wave (iii) we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 9.01;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in wave iii rally which has the following projections for its completion:

 

iii = 1.618i = 39.92;

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. If that is the case then we are now rallying sharply in wave -iii- of (iii) of iii.

 

Within wave iii we are rallying sharply in wave (iii), which has a projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

Within wave iii we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 94.44.

 

Wave (iii) is now subdividing with wave -i- ending at 68.84 and all of wave -ii- at 52.33. WE should now be rallying sharply higher again in wave -iii-.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoints:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 433.46;

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 1.618i = 351.99;

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoints:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 163.16;

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 148.70;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1220gold.png

 Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as gold reached a low of 1876.50!!

 

After making that low we have moved sharply higher currently trading at the 1946.00 level…. around $70 off its overnight low.  

 

Wave ^iii^ is complete at the 2077.90 (October) high and we are now falling in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1959.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1886.20.

 

In the overnight session we reached our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we cannot rule the possibly that all of wave -iv- is now compete at the 1876.50 low. If that is the case we are now starting to rally higher in wave ^v^.

 

The other option is that wave ^iv^ is going to become a bullish triangle, with the lowest point within that formation being the 1876.50 low.

 

Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^v^ and all of  wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1220si.png   Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 23.59!

 

 After that low was made we moved sharply higher to currently be trading at the 25.54 level… around $2.00 off its overnight low.

 

Wave -iii- of (i) is now complete at the 29.91 high and we are now falling in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 26.29;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 24.05.

 

We have now reached the 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we cannot rule the possibility that all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 23.59 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally higher in wave -v-.

 

The other option is that wave -iv- is going to become a bullish triangle of which we have reached the lowest point of that formation at the 23.59 low.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long at 14.85, and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1220bond.png   

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 0.678{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and we continue to drift lower in wave ^b^, although it may be complete at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low..

 

After wave ^b^ ends we expect to head higher in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1220spd.png  

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1220sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 3381.01, although we closed lower at 3333.69.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 24 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), all of -i- of (iii) is complete at the 3233.13 high and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2999.89;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2944.84.

 

As you can see on our 120 Min SP500 Chart wave .a. is complete at the 2965.66 low, so we are now rallying in complex wave .b., although this rally is getting long in the tooth for our current analysis to be correct.

 

We did have a key daily reversal lower in yesterday’s trading session, which may be the signal that all of wave .b. is now complete at the 3381.01 high. We will give this market another day or so to see if the key reversal is the end of wave .b..

 

After wave .b. ends we still expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -ii-. Wave .c. should drop to at least the wave .a. low of 2965.66.                                                                                                            

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1220us.png   Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was marginally higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 93.89.

 

We continue to fall sharply in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave -iii- and the start of a wave -iv- rally, that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop. We are still waiting for confirmation that all of wave -iii- is complete at the 92.51 low, however, as we still could see another drop lower before all of wave -iii- ends.

 

We are also now looking at a much more bearish count for the USDX that we will introduce in the next day or so.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1220oil.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 42.41 level.

 

For the time being we are still assuming that all of wave (i) ended at the 42.51 high. If that is the case then we are now falling in the initial stages of wave (ii), which should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the enter wave (i) rally.

 

We are still not totally convinced of our current count, so we will give this market a couple more days, before we provide our retracement levels for our wave (ii) correction, as wave (i) may now be extending higher.      

 

Suncor: Within wave C we likely completed wave (i) of i at 19.16 and likely all of wave (ii) at the 13.98 low, although we cannot now rule the possibility that it is becoming an a irregular type correction, and in this case we are no heading back to at least the 13.98 low to complete all of wave (ii).  If wave (ii) is complete the we should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projection for its completion:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 29.43.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew