AUG 15 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 1675.90, although we closed higher at 1778.20!!

                                                                          

It was a very volatile week in gold as we plunged early in the Sunday night electronic session and over 24000 contracts were sold.

 

However, by the end of the week we actually closed higher!

 

In spite of all that plunge and recovery action, we believe we are still working on our wave .iv. of -iii- of (3) of 3 bullish triangle, and it is expanding and extending.

 

It looks like all of wave *c* ended at the spike low of 1675.90, so we are now rallying in wave *d*.

 

Wave *d* can rally as high as the wave *b* high of 2089.20 for our current bullish triangle formation to remain valid.

 

After wave *d* ends we expect one more drop in wave *e* to complete all of our wave .iv. bullish triangle.  

 

After our wave .iv. bullish triangle ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave .v, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 2535.10.                              

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!             

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply lower again this past week reaching a low of 22.28, closing at 23.78. 

                                                                  

It now looks like our wave (iv) bullish triangle is expanding and extending after the big spike low we had in last Sunday’s evenings electronic session.

 

Within our wave (iv) bullish triangle all of wave -c- ended at the 22.28 spike low, and we are now rallying in wave -d-.

 

Wave -d- can rally as high as the wave -b- high of 30.35 and this triangle option will remain valid. After wave -d- ends we expect one more drop in wave -e- to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

After our bullish wave (iv) triangle ends we still expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has a projected length of $8 to $10 an ounce higher, from the triangle breakout.          

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1.379%, but by the end of the week we had lost almost all of those gains to close only marginally higher at 1.297%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive, and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave *i* at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave *ii*, which ahs the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We have reached our minimum retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of sharp rally higher in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* when we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

The rally from 1.128% to the last week’s high of 1.379% looks to be a 3 wave corrective pattern, which is suggesting that rates will be heading back to at least the 1.128% level, before all of wave (ii) ends. We also failed to break and close above our red downtrend line.

 

The other option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially sharply lower again this past week, reaching a low of 65.15, but we closed marginally higher at 68.44.

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we continue to work on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within that bullish triangle we may still be working on a complex wave $c$. After wave $c$ ends we expect a wave $d$ rally.

 

After wave $cd$ ends we expect another drop in wave $e$ to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to then complete all of wave i.

 

The size of the wave $iv$ triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that could see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our larger wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was initially higher this past week, reaching a high of 19.79, although we closed lower at 19.19.

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

We are still short of our 50% retracement level so we expect some further weakness next week, before all of wave (ii) ends. After wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp rally in wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                             

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521sp500.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching yet another all-time high at 4468.37, and closing at 4468.00!

 

It now appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 93.21, although we closed lower at 92.51!!

 

We believe we are working on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, which we think is complete at the 93.21 high.

 

Only a break of the 93.47 high would suggest that is triangle is expanding and extending.

 

If our current count is valid then we should be falling in the initial stages of wave *v* of -iii- now.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.21!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved sideways this past week, although we closed marginally lower at 923.06.

 

Wave -ii- of .iii. is now complete at the 868.40 low and we should now be rallying higher in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1593.60.                         

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is:

 

3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long-term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 31.90, closing at 32.82.

 

Longer term we are rallying higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

It looks like that within wave *iii* all of wave ^i^ ended at the 39.88 high and we are still falling in wave ^ii^ although it is getting very deep for our liking.

 

If wave *c* in gold is complete then we should see the GDX start to move sharply higher starting early next week.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 48136, and closing at 46616!

 

All of wave 1 or A is complete at the 64860 high. We are falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low.

 

This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

We are rallying in our wave (b) rally which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop.

 

Those retracement levels are:

 

50% = 46884;

61.8% = 51126.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone for all of wave (b) so we have to be on guard for its completion and the start of another drop in wave (c) of 2 or B.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew