aug 16 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1621cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved sideways in Friday’s trading session, although we closed higher at 923.06!

 

Longer term we are rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and all of wave -ii- at the 868.40 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1593.60.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 935.91 to the current low of 914.34 is corrective looking which is suggesting that once this correction ends we will be moving higher again.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to still be rallying in an incomplete impulsive sequence out of the 868.40 low, so we should still see higher prices in the days ahead.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1621gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1621gdxd.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 32.96, and closing at 32.82!

 

We have now exceeded our 78.6% retracement level so there is still a large probability that the GDX will now continue to fall back to the 30.64 low, in a very complex continuation of wave *ii*.

 

At the moment we do not have another count to support this thinking, so we will stay with our current count, although our confidence level in it is very low.

 

A break and close above 32.87 would a first good sign for the bulls, which may happen in today’s trading!!

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1621gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was sharply higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1784.30!

 

We continue to work on our large wave .iv. of -iii- bullish triangle which is now expanding and extending. Within that triangle all of wave *c* ended at the 1675.90 low and we have started to rally higher in wave *d*.

 

Remember that legs of triangle formation are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

It is impossible to know how high wave *d* will go, but it should at least reach our upper red trendline of our triangle formation, which is around the 1860.00 level.

 

It could go as high at the wave *b* high of 2089.20!

 

After wave *d* ends we expect another drop in wave *e* to complete all of this large wave .iv. bullish triangle.

                                 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1621si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 23.83.

 

After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 23.40, but since that low was made we have moved higher again to currently be trading at the 23.67 level!

 

We are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are still working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is now expanding and extending, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart.

 

Within the wave (iv) bullish triangle all of wave -c- ended at the 22.28 low. We are now rallying in wave -d- that can go as high as the wave -b- high of 30.35.

 

As a minimum wave -d- should reach our upper red trendline which currently sits at the 27.50 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1621bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.267%.

 

We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

It looks like form the 1.128% low to the recent high of 1.379% we have a 3 wave rally formation in place which is bearish and this is suggesting that we will be falling back to at least the 1.128% level again before all of wave *ii* ends.

 

After wave *ii* ends will provide our first projections for the completion of wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1621spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1621sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching another all-time new high at 4468.37. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 15points!

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

So within wave .v. of -v- of (iii), we think wave $i$ ended at 4397.68 and all of wave $ii$ at 4233.37. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 4777.45

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1621usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 92.47.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 92.66.

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of our large wave *iv* bearish triangle formation ended at the 93.20 high. We should now be heading lower in wave *v* of -iii-.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

The other option that that this bearish triangle is expanding and extending and if that is the case then we should keep rallying to the 93.47 high to complete all of wave $c$ of *iv*.  

                                                                                                                 

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.21.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.21! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1621oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 66.06!

 

We continue to work on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart, although it is likely expanding and extending now. Within wave (iv), wave $b$ high ended at 76.98 and we are now falling in a complex wave $c$. After wave $c$ ends we expect a wave $d$ rally to be followed by an wave $e$ drop to complete the entire wave (iv) bullish triangle. 

                                                                                                               

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 18.99, which is still above our 50% retracement level, so we suspect that all of wave (ii) may not be complete at that low. After wave (ii) ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave (iii), and we will provide our initial projection for its completion when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew