aug 19 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1921cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was marginally higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 882.92, closing at 878.05!

 

Longer term we are rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -iii- is becoming more complex.

 

At the moment we do not have an updated internal wave count to present for all of wave -ii-, but we should be able to sort that out in the next day or so. A drop to at least the 867.26 low is very likely now, before all of wave -ii- ends.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to still be rallying in an incomplete impulsive sequence out of the 868.40 low, so we should still see higher prices in the days ahead.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1921gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1921gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 31.25, closing at 31.49!

 

We have now exceeded our 78.6% retracement level so, as repeatedly noted here, there is still a large probability that the GDX will now continue to fall back to the 30.64 low, in a very complex continuation of wave *ii*.

 

At the moment we do not have another count to support this thinking, so we will stay with our current count, although our confidence level in it is very low.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1921gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1776.10. After that low was made we moved higher, reaching a high of 1792.40!

 

We continue to work on our large wave .iv. of -iii- bullish triangle which is now expanding and extending. Within that triangle all of wave *c* ended at the 1675.90 low and we have started to rally higher in wave *d*.

 

Remember that legs of triangle formation are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

It is impossible to know how high wave *d* will go, but it should at least reach our upper red trendline of our triangle formation, which is around the 1860.00 level.

 

It could go as high as the wave *b* high of 2089.20.

 

After wave *d* ends we expect another drop in wave *e* to complete all of this large wave .iv. bullish triangle.

                                 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1921si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 23.08!

 

We are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are still working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is now expanding and extending, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart.

 

Within the wave (iv) bullish triangle all of wave -c- ended at the 22.28 low. We are now rallying in wave -d- that can go as high as the wave -b- high of 30.35. As a minimum wave -d- should reach our upper red trendline which currently sits at the 27.50 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1921bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1.299%. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.232%!

 

We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

It looks like form the 1.128% low to the recent high of 1.379% we have a 3 wave rally formation in place which is bearish and this is suggesting that we will be falling back to at least the 1.128% level again before all of wave *ii* ends.

 

After wave *ii* ends will provide our first projections for the completion of wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1921spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1921sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4397.59. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 35 points!

 

Despite the “meltdown”, it STILL looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

So within wave .v. of -v- of (iii), we think wave $i$ ended at 4397.68 and all of wave $ii$ at 4233.37. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 4777.45

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1921usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session we have reached a high of 93.52!

 

We have now broken above the 93.47 high so we have now adopted our alternate count that is suggesting that our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is now expanding and extending.

 

We should be working on the final stages of wave $c$ of *iv*. After wave $c$ ends we expect a drop in wave $d$, as shown on our daily USDX Chart. Wave $d$ cannot drop below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

The USDX cannot continue to rally above our wave $a$ high of for our bearish triangle option to remain valid.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

We were stopped out of our short position yesterday.  

                                                                                                                 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1921oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 62.67!

 

We continue to work on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart, although it is likely expanding and extending now.

 

Within wave (iv), wave $b$ high ended at 76.98 and we are now falling in a complex wave $c$. After wave $c$ ends we expect a wave $d$ rally to be followed by an wave $e$ drop to complete the entire wave (iv) bullish triangle. 

                                                                                                               

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 17.98, which is now within our retracement zone. We need to now be on guard for the end of wave (ii) and the start another sharp rally higher in wave (iii) We will provide our initial projection for the completion of wave (iii) when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew