aug 2 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewag221cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 925.63, and closing on its high of 925.63!

 

Longer term we are rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and all of wave -ii- at the 868.40 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1593.60.

 

On the Intraday Chart we completed a 3 wave corrective pattern from 913.58 to 892.89, and are now moving higher. We also traded above the 918.87 low, which confirmed to us that all of wave -ii- ended at the 868.40 low.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

We should see higher prices in the days ahead.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug221gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug221gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways in Friday’s trading session, and we closed marginal lower at 34.92.

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave ^ii^ of *iii* is complete at the 32.87 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^.

 

Our first projection for the completion of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 47.50.

 

Our next short term resistance levels is 35.00/35.25, which we should break soon.

 

We also have a head and shoulders bottom formation on the GDX Daily Chart, as we are now heading to the neckline.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug221gold.png

 

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 1808.70.

In the overnight session we initially moved higher reaching a high of 1819.70, although as that low was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1808.40.

 

We are working on a very large wave .iv. of -iii- triangle that we assuming is complete at the 1750.10 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to move higher in wave .v., which should be a very sharp thrust. Our current projection for the end of all of wave .v. and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 2535.10.

 

Within wave .v. we are starting to work on wave *i* and within wave *i* we think all of wave ^i^ ended at the 1835.00 high and we are now falling in wave ^ii^ which is also complete at the 1790.10 low. We are therefore starting to rally higher in wave ^iii^, which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 1928.10.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 1832.60 to 1808.90 looks like a 3 wave corrective pattern. Once it ends then we should see gold move higher again and try to breach our next resistance level at the 1835.00 level.

 

Note the potential head and shoulders bottom formation on our Daily Gold Chart.

                                    

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug221si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 25.37.

 

We are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is now complete at the 24.51 low.

 

If that is case then we should be working on the initial stages of our sharp wave (v) thrust. Within wave (v) we are *i* of -i- of (v).

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 25.86 to the current low of 25.37 look corrective, so once this pattern ends we expect silver to move higher again to try and breach and close our next resistance level of 25.60/25.70. After that next resistance will be at the 26.60 level.

 

Based on the size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle we expect the thrust to be in the order of $8 to $10.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug221bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.221%.

 

We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We have now entered our upper retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of a rally in wave *iii*. After wave *ii* ends will provide our first projections for the completion of wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug221spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug221sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 moved lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 4389.65.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 20 points!

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

So within wave .v. of -v- of (iii), we think wave $i$ ended at 4397.68 and all of wave $ii$ at 4233.37. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 4777.45

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug221usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Friday’s day session reaching ahigh of 92.21. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 91.92!

 

The ending diagonal triangle formation is complete at the 93.20 high and so is our large wave *iv* bearish triangle formation. We are now heading lower in wave *v* of -iii-.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

We suspect that the drop in the USDX should start to accelerate over the next couple of weeks.  

 

We have lowered our stop to the top of the wave *iv* triangle at 93.21.  

                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.21.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.21! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug221oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 74.23. In the overnight we moved lower reaching a low of 72.61!

 

We have updated our count to suggest that we are still moving higher in wave i of C, and with wave i, we now think that all of wave (iii) ended at 67.98, and we are now working on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within wave (iv) we think that we completed wave (c) at the 65.01 low and that we are now rallying in wave (d), which may be complete at the 74.23 high.

 

Only a break above the wave (b) high of 76.98 would eliminate this current bullish triangle.

 

After wave (d) ends we expect a drop in wave (e) to complete all of the wave (iv) bullish triangle.    

                                                                                                               

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 19.44, which is still above our 50% retracement level, so we suspect that all of wave (ii) may not be complete at that low.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave (iii), and we will provide our initial projection for its completion when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew