aug 20 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug2020cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 738.08, closing at 739.95.

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for the completion of all of wave .i. at the 761.82 high. If that is the case we should expect a more sizable correction in wave .ii., which should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave .i. rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we believe that all of wave .i. is complete.

 

We still have the concern that our current count is predicting an upcoming much larger correction then our current counts in gold, silver and the GDX are. In fact as you will see below those corrections could already be complete.

 

An updated count that we are considering is that we could be approaching the completion of an extended wave -iii- of .i., which then lines up with the counts in the other markets that we mentioned above. In this case the upcoming correction will be wave -iv- which would retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

For the time being we will stay with our current count, but suspect it is likely not correct.

 

Next resistance for the GDXJ is the 70.00 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug2020gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug2020gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 40.77, closing at 41.01.

 

Wave ^iii^ is complete at the 45.78 high and we are now falling in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

We have shown a possible 3 wave corrective pattern on our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts, with all of wave -a- ending at the 38.88 low. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave -b-, which will then be followed by another drop in wave -c- to complete all of wave -iv-.

 

Wave -c- should drop at least back to the wave -a- low. Another possible corrective pattern for wave -iv- could be a bullish triangle with the first leg of that formation being complete at the 38.88 low. In this pattern, we have already reach our lowest point within wave -iv-.

 

Although we are still a little short of our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, there is an outside chance that all of wave -iv- could be complete at the 38.88 low also, as the gold and silver market are very volatile at the moment.

 

Longer term first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We suspect that wave 3 will likely extend higher then the above projection also, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug2020gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1930.30, although since making that low we have moved higher and are currently trading at the 1951.00 level.  

 

Wave ^iii^ is complete at the 2077.90 (October) high and we are now falling in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1959.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1886.20.

 

We have now reached our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we cannot rule the possibly that all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 1874.20 low. If that is the case we are now starting to rally higher in wave ^v^.

 

The other option is that wave ^iv^ is going to become a bullish triangle, with the lowest point within that formation being the 1874.20 low. This is now our alternate count and is shown graphically on the Daily Gold Chart. It could be possible that wave $b$ could be complete at the 2023.90 high.

 

Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^v^ and all of  wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug2020si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 26.54. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 27.48.

 

Wave -iii- of (i) is now complete at the 29.91 high and we are now falling in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 26.29;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 24.05.

 

We have now reached the 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we cannot rule the possibility that all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 23.58 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally higher in wave -v-.

 

The other option is that wave -iv- is going to become a bullish triangle of which we have reached the lowest point of that formation at the 23.58 low, which we have shown graphically on our Daily Silver Chart. It could be possible that wave *b* is complete at the 28.61 high.

 

It looks like we have successfully tested and held the 26.00/26.60 support level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long at 14.85, and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug2020bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 0.656{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and we continue to drift lower in wave ^b^, although it may be complete at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. After wave ^b^ ends we expect to head higher in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug2020spd.png  

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug2020sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching an all-time new high at 3399.54. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 11 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), all of -i- of (iii) is complete at the 3233.13 high and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2999.89;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2944.84.

 

As you can see on our 120 Min SP500 Chart wave .a. is complete at the 2965.66 low, so we are now rallying in complex wave .b., although this rally is getting long in the tooth for our current analysis to be correct. Note the potential ending diagonal triangle formation on the 120 Min SP500 Chart.

 

We will give this market another day or so to see if all of wave .b. is complete at the 3399.54 high. After wave .b. ends we still expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -ii-. Wave .c. should drop to at least the wave .a. low of 2965.66.  

 

We are short now planning to capture the wave .c. drop.                                                                                                           

 

Trading Recommendation: Short with a call as the stop.

 

Active Positions: Short with a call as a stop with a target 2960/2965!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug2020usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session we have reached a high of 93.20.

 

We continue to fall sharply in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88.

 

We have adopted our alternate count that is suggesting that we are now getting close to completing all of wave *iii* of -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

*iii* = 4.25*i* = 91.32.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave *iii* is complete at the 93.14 low. After wave *iii* ends we expect a wave *iv* of -iii- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *iii* drop. We will provide those retracement levels when we believe that all of wave *iii* is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug2020oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 42.63 level.

 

For the time being we are still assuming that all of wave (i) ended at the 42.51 high. If that is the case then we are now falling in the initial stages of wave (ii), which should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the enter wave (i) rally. We are still not totally convinced of our current count, so we will give this market a couple more days, before we provide our retracement levels for our wave (ii) correction, as wave (i) may now be extending higher.      

 

Suncor: Within wave C we likely completed wave (i) of i at 19.16 and likely all of wave (ii) at the 13.98 low, although we cannot now rule the possibility that it is becoming an a irregular type correction, and in this case we are no heading back to at least the 13.98 low to complete all of wave (ii).  If wave (ii) is complete the we should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projection for its completion:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 29.43.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                           

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew