aug 23 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2021aug23cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved sideways in Friday’s trading session, although we closed higher at 864.51!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is becoming more complex.

 

We have updated our count for wave -ii- to suggest that it has become a complex double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on the Daily CNDX Chart.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

With the drop below 867.26, we have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave -ii- at the current low of 860.31, however we cannot rule out some further losses before all of wave -ii- ends.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after all of wave -ii- ends.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04!!

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2321gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2321gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower again in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 30.68, closing at 30.85, but gold is popping nicely this morning… looks good!

 

It now looks like a very complex triple 3 wave corrective pattern is still underway within wave *ii*. We have updated our count on the Daily GDX Chart to show this. Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.48;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave *ii* is the 30.64 low, and we are still a bit above our 50% retracement level for all of wave *ii* also.

 

After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally higher in wave *iii*, and we will provide our initial endpoint for its completion when we believe all of wave *ii* is complete. 

 

We will update our 60 Min GDX in the next day or so.     

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will start updating our Gold Stock Charts this week!

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2321gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in Friday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1804.80!

 

In Friday’s Post we said this: “On the Intraday Chart we appear to be working on a bullish triangle formation that started at the 1784.30 high. If this observation is correct then we should expect to see gold thrust higher after this pattern ends.”

 

Well, we appear to now be thrusting higher!!!

 

Longer term we continue to work on our large wave .iv. of -iii- bullish triangle which is now expanding and extending. Within that triangle all of wave *c* ended at the 1675.90 low and we have started to rally higher in wave *d*. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

It is impossible to know how high wave *d* will go, but it should at least reach our upper red trendline of our triangle formation, which is around the 1860.00 level. It could go as high as the wave *b* high of 2089.20. After wave *d* ends we expect another drop in wave *e* to complete all of this large wave .iv. bullish triangle.

                                 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2321si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 22.84.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 23.61!

 

We are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are still working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is now expanding and extending, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart.

 

Within the wave (iv) bullish triangle all of wave -c- ended at the 22.28 low. We are now rallying in wave -d- that can go as high as the wave -b- high of 30.35. As a minimum wave -d- should reach our upper red trendline which currently sits at the 27.50 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2321bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 1.228%.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.273%!

 

We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

It looks like form the 1.128% low to the recent high of 1.379% we have a 3 wave rally formation in place which is bearish and this is suggesting that we will be falling back to at least the 1.128% level again before all of wave *ii* ends.

 

After wave *ii* ends will provide our first projections for the completion of wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2321spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2321sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 4444.35. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 19 points!

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

So within wave .v. of -v- of (iii), we think wave $i$ ended at 4397.68 and all of wave $ii$ at 4233.37. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 4777.45

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat!

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2321usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 93.75.

 

In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 93.18!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is now expanding and extending and it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may be complete at the 93.75 high.

 

If that is the case then we should be now falling in wave $d$, as shown on our Daily USDX Chart. Wave $d$ cannot drop below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

The USDX cannot continue to rally above our wave $a$ high of 94.80 for our bearish triangle option to remain valid.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                             

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2321oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 61.82. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 64.31!

 

We continue to work on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart, as it is expanding and extending now. Within wave (iv), wave $b$ high ended at 76.98 and we are now falling in a complex wave $c$, which could be complete at the 61.82 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying higher in wave $d$.

 

Wave $c$ cannot fall below the wave $a$ low of 57.25, for our current bullish triangle formation to remain valid. After our wave $d$ rally ends we expect a wave $e$ drop to complete the entire wave (iv) bullish triangle. 

                                                                                                               

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 17.10, which is now within our retracement zone. We need to now be on guard for the end of wave (ii) and the start another sharp rally higher in wave (iii) We will provide our initial projection for the completion of wave (iii) when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew