AUG 30 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug3020gol.png  

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially lower this past week, reaching a low of 1908.40, but we closed higher at 1974.90.

 

The daily ranges in gold were quite large this past week!

                                                                          

Wave ^iii^ is complete at the 2077.90 high and we are now falling in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1959.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1886.20.

 

We did reach the 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level very quickly. So either wave ^iv^ is already complete at the 1876.50 low or it is likely developing into a bullish triangle that could take a few weeks to develop.

 

If we are working on the bullish triangle then we completed wave $a$ at the 1876.50 low and we are now rallying in a complex wave $b$.

 

Wave $b$ could also be complete at the 2024.60 high and it could also trade above the wave ^iii^ high of 2077.90.

 

On the Intraday Chart the current rally formation from the 1876.50 low is still suggesting that the bullish triangle is likely, although we did indicate in our last Friday post that we have satisfied the minimum conditions for the completion of the bullish triangle at the 1914.70 low.

 

We would be very surprised if this corrective triangle was already complete.  

 

After wave ^iv^ ends we expect gold to rally again in wave ^v^ of *iii* Wave *iii* has an initial protected endpoint of:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

After wave *iii* ends we expect a wave *iv* correction that will retrace the entire wave *iii* rally.

 

If wave *iii* ends at about 2300.00 then the expected correction range for wave *iv* would be between $200 to $325…note that as gold moves higher the absolute correction values will be get bigger although the percentages of our retracements remain the same.                 

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!    

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug3020si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Sliver was higher this past week reaching a high of 28.03 and closing at 27.79. Silver continues to have large daily trading ranges also.   

                                                                  ,

Silver has completed wave -iii- of (i) at the 29.91 high and we are current falling in wave -i-v, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 29.29;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 24.05.

 

We have already reached our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, although it was reached very quickly.

 

So, either all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 23.58 low and we are now rallying in wave -v- or wave -iv- is likely going to become a bullish triangle for which we would have completed wave *a* of that pattern at the 23.58 low.

 

We would are now rallying in wave *b*, which could be complete at the 28.61 high. . Wave *b* can also rally above the wave -iii- high of 29.91. On the Intraday Chart the formation of the current rally from the 23.58 low is suggesting that the bullish triangle formation is likely for wave -iv-.

 

In Friday’s Post we did indicate that we have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -iv- correction at the 26.57 low. We would be surprised if this bullish correction is complete so quickly, however.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 0.746{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, closing at 0.729{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will see negative rates for this market.

 

With our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We now think that wave ^ii^ is becoming more complex and believe that a rally back to the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high should be expected before all of wave ^ii^ ends. Within wave ^ii^ it is looking like wave -b- ended at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and that we are now rallying in wave -c-, which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, before it ends.  

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug3020oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was higher this last week reaching a high of 43.78, closing at 42.97.                                                                                      

 

The ongoing sideways trading in crude is suggesting that we are in some kind of triangle formation. If we are still in wave (i) then this bullish triangle would have started at the wave $iii$ high of 41.63.

 

It looks like this sideways trading could continue for another week or so, before we move higher in this scenario, all within a continuing wave (i) rally. For the time being we will stay with our current analysis, with caution.

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave (i) is now complete at the 42.51 high and if that is the case we should expect crude to drop in a wave (ii) correction.

 

We will give this market another week to confirm this observation, but if wave (ii) has begun then we except that this market will retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

A drop back to at least the 26.00 level should be expected.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug3020su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor moved sideways this past week, but we closed higher at 16.60.

 

Suncor made a multidecade low in wave B at the 9.61 low. We are now rallying in initial stages of a multiple year wave C.

 

In the short term we completed wave (i) at the 19.16 and we believe all of wave (ii) at the 13.98 low, although we are now thinking that wave (ii) has become more complex and in that case we will heading back to that low before all of wave (ii) ends.

 

Assuming that wave (ii) is complete at the 13.98 low, then we should be now be rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 29.43.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug3020sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time new high at 3509.23, closing at 3508.01.  

 

We now believe that all of wave -ii- of (iii) ended at the 2965.55 low and we are now rallying in wave -iii- of (iii) that has the following projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.

 

We expect further gains next week. After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We are exiting our short trade to go flat again.  The call options made it almost a neutral trade.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug3020usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 92.20, closing at 92.39.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-, which has the following initial endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 91.88.

 

Within wave -iii, we now believe that we are still working on wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 4.25*i* = 91.32.

 

Within wave *iii*, we completed wave $iii$ at the 92.50 low and likely all of our bearish wave $iv$ triangle at the 93.35 high.

 

If that is the case we should now be falling in wave $v$ of *iii*.

 

After wave *iii* ends we expect a wave *iv* rally that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *iii* drop.

 

Active Positions: Flat~

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug3020cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 746.21, closing at 745.31.

 

We now has satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave (i) at the 761.84 high.

 

If all of wave (i) is now complete we should now expect an overdue wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

We are also looking at our current count with the idea that perhaps we are still rallying in an ever extending wave -iii- of .i. and not wave -v-. This would put the CDNX count into the alignment gold, silver and the GDX.

 

The CDNX stocks have rallied significantly more that those other miners in terms of percentage increase. For now we will stay with our current count.  

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug3020gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 42.34, closing at 41.96.

 

Our initial target for our ongoing wave 3 rally is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20

 

Wave 3 is subdividing and we are still rallying in wave ^iii^ of 3.

 

Wave ^iii^ is complete the 45.78 high and we are now falling in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

We are still a bit short of our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we suspect that wave ^iv^ is still underway.

 

We have shown a potential flat correction for wave ^iv^ on the Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts.

 

This pattern is suggesting that all of wave -a- of ^iv^ ended at the 38.88 low and that we are now rallying in wave -b-.

 

After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c- to at least the wave -a- low of 38.88 to complete all of wave ^iv^.

 

Wave ^iv^ could also become a bullish triangle with wave -a- of that pattern ending at the 38.88 low. We would now be rallying in wave -b- which could exceed the wave ^iii^ high of 45.78.

 

Next significant resistance is at the 51.67 level.  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew