AUG 8 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was lower this past week reaching a low of 1759.50, closing at 1763.10.

                                                                          

We continue to work on our wave .iv. of -iii- of (3) of 3 bullish triangle , but wave *e* is still underway.

 

Wave *e* looks to have become a 3wave correction pattern, which has a minimum target for its completion of:

 

 1750.50.

 

Unfortunately, wave *e* can drop as low as 1673.30, before this current triangle formation is eliminated.  

 

We expect some weakness in gold early next week until we at least reach our minimum target of 1750.50. After wave *e* and .iv. end we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave .v.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 2535.10.                              

 

Active Positions: Long, with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was lower this past week reaching a low of 24.20, closing at 24.33.

                                                                  

Despite the action, it looks like our wave (iv) bullish triangle is still underway!

 

It will remain valid as long as the current drop stays above 23.74. If we continue to fall to that level then we suspect that our triangle is just expanding and extending.

 

A drop below 23.74 now, will mean that wave -c- has become a lot more complex.  

 

After our bullish wave (iv) triangle ends we still expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has a projected length of $8 to $10.                                                

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with puts as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 1.119%, but after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 1.300%, closing at 1.290%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s. This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave *i* at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave *ii*, which ahs the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We have reached our minimum retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of sharp rally higher in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* when we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

The other option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view, it is!

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 67.61, closing at 68.28!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we completed all of wave (iii) of i at 67.98, and we now believe we are working on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within that bullish triangle we completed wave $c$ at 65.01 and likely all of wave $d$ at the 74.23 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now falling in wave $e$ to complete all of wave (iv).

 

A drop now below the 65.01 low would suggest that our bullish triangle is expanding and extending.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to then complete all of wave i. The size of the wave $iv$ triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that could see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 18.99, closing at 19.68!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

We are still short of our 50% retracement level so we expect some further weakness next week, before all of wave (ii) ends. After wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp rally in wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821spw.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 4440.82, and closing at 4436.52!  Our counts continue on track.  The Wave V danger is extreme.

 

Note that the bear wedge on the chart is an Editor ST add.  Your editor isn’t exactly a stock market moron, having faxed all his Merrill Lynch stock broker clients in late dec 1999 to “sell everything, now!” after loading them up, bigtime, in the many years previous.

 

His calls to buy the stock market at the lows of 2008 and March 2020… and the bear wedge going into “Super Wave Five” fits with the Captain’s horrifying counts.

 

Note the Captain’s weekly chart “super wave five” target.  He’s looking at the Dow at a number of about 1000!  From a fundamentals perspective, what causes that?  Debt? War? Famine? More virus? Money Printing? All of these?  Whatever the cause, the action looks like… an empire wipeout!

 

Regardless, here’s the Captain and his specific count and positions summary:

 

It now appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug81usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 92.85, closing at 92.80!

 

We believe we are working on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it may not be complete at the 93.19 high.

 

Only a break of the 93.47 high would suggest that this triangle is expanding and extending.

 

If our current count is valid then we should be falling in the initial stages of wave *v* of -iii- now.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.21!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 935.91, closing marginally higher at 925.65!

 

Wave -ii- of .iii. is now complete at the 868.40 low and we should now be rallying higher in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1593.60.                         

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is:

3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long-term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 32.87, closing at 33.24.

 

Longer term we are rallying higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

It looks like that within wave *iii* all of wave ^i^ ended at the 39.88 high and all or most of wave ^ii^ at the 32.87 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave ^iii^ which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 47.50.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) =

 

$66.37!                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/32aug821bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply higher this past week, reaching a high of 45310, and closing at 44721!

 

All of wave 1 or A is complete at the 64860 high. We are falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low.

 

This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

We should now be rallying in wave (b) rally which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

50% = 46884;

61.8% = 51126.

 

After wave (b) ends we expect one more drop in wave (c) to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew