dec 1 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec120cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was marginally higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 750.68, closing on its high of 750.42.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (iv) is complete at the 665.81 low, and if it is then we should now be moving higher as shown in the Daily CDNX Chart.

 

It could still be possible that wave (iv) is still underway as an expanding and extending bullish triangle. For this bullish triangle alternate to remain valid we cannot trade below the 665.81 low. Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv) are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 681.63;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 634.32.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect another rally in wave (v) to complete all of wave -iii-. We should be moving sharply higher now in wave $iii$ of (v) of -iii-.

 

In the longer term our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.                                                                                                                  

                                                                                        

Longer term after wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec120gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec120gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 34.68, closing at the high of 34.68.   

 

As we indicated in our last End of Week Post we now believe that all of *i* of -3- ended at the 45.78 high and that we now falling in wave *ii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

We are still about 10{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we should further weakness in the GDX before all of wave *ii* ends, although we note that gold is incredibly strong this morning.

 

Most important: Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We plan at add to our long positions at 29.75.

 

We will be updating our analysis and charts as starting this week for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices. Add to GDX at 29.75

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! Add to GDX at 29.75!

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec120gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher as continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1813.00!!

 

As we mentioned in our last End of Week Post the current drop in gold is too deep to be wave ^iv^, so we have updated our current count to now suggest that with wave *iii*, all of wave ^i^ ended at the 2077.90 high and that we now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1764.40;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1690.40.

 

The current low is still a bit short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we should expect further weakness before all of wave ^ii^ ends. However, the 1767.20 low is pretty close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the potential end to wave ^ii^ at that low.

 

WE note that the GDX ad silver are still well above their 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement levels, but as we have mentioned previously retracements and projections are not part of Ewave theory.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

We plan to add to our long positions at 1735.00.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. Add long at 1735.00

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! Add longs at 1735.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec120si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that tend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 23.61.

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high, but we continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are still short of our retracement levels so we expect further losses before all of wave (ii) ends. We would want silver to at least reach the 21.81 low to complete the minimum requirements for a complete double 3 corrective pattern within wave (ii).

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii).

 

We plan to add to our long positions at 19.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop. Add long at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop. Add long at 19.50!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec20bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 0.855{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

We have finally reached our minimum projection for the completion of wave -c- and ^ii^ at the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We have also reached our retracement zone for wave ^ii^., which is:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec120spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec120sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 3594.39.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 35 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it now complete at the 3233.94 low. It was a rare failure low.

 

It now may be possible that all of .v. and -iii- are complete at the 3645.99 high, even though we are still a bit short of our projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave -iii- is complete and that a wave -iv- drop is about to begin. Wave -iv- should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally, which we will provide once we believe wave -iii- is complete.                                                                                        

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec120usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was marginally lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 91.50. After that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 92.03.

 

In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 91.60.

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave *v* and -iii- at the 91.50 low, although we are not sure it is complete. We will need to give this market a few more days to see how it trades.

 

If wave -iii- is complete then we should expect a wave -iv- rally that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop.

 

Very unusual for the USDX to keep dropping as gold drops sharply also. We are sure that this is not going to last much longer.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec120oil.png

  

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 45.16 level.

 

We have adopted our alternate count that is suggesting that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 33.64 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i0 = 93.96.  

 

Our only concern with our current wave (ii) low is that it was very shallow, although the 6.50 or -40 low was a bit of an aberration in trading.

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave i ended at the 21.73 high and a very deep wave (ii) at the 10.67 low. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.    

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew