DEC 1 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewde121cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 931.34, closing at 939.44!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

It now looks like all of wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- is complete at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 936.85;

61.8% = 915.86.

 

We have entered our retracement level so we need to be guard for the completion of wave $ii$ and the start of a sharp rally higher in wave $iii$

 

On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a double 3 wave corrective pattern at the 931.34 low.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec121gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 31.64, closing at 31.80.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 33.95 high. We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- ended at 30.96, and if that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which an initial endpoint for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

Within wave -iii-, it now looks like all of wave ^i^ ended at the 35.08 high and we are now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% =31.84.

 

We have reached our 78.6% retracement level and we do not want to fall very much lower for our current analysis to remain valid.

 

We need to be guard for the completion of wave ^ii^ and the start of another rally in wave ^iii^. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 31.64 low.

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Updates on Gold and Gold Indices are Coming Soon.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec121gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1771.20.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1794.40.

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d. Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid.

 

Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Wave .d. ended at 1879.50.

 

We are falling in wave .e. which could be complete at the 1771.20 low. After wave .e. and -iv- end we can expect a huge thrust higher in wave -v-, which will take gold to all time new highs.

 

A likely place for wave .e. to end would be on our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily Gold Chart, which we have now reached.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave .e. and -iv- are complete at the 1771.20 low.

 

Bulls should be using the setback to add or go long gold.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

                            

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/eewdec2121si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 22.66.

 

 After that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 23.06.

 

Wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

Wave -ii- is still underway as it has become an irregular type correction as shown on the Daily Silver Chart.

 

We are now dropping in wave $c$ which has a minimum target of the wave $a$ low of 23.05.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 23.17;

61.8% = 22.75.

 

We have reached our 61.8% retracement level and satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -ii- at the 22.77 low. We are now waiting for conformation that it is complete at that low.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to have an almost complete ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

A rally and clean break above the 23.70 level would confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 22.66 low.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec121bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved marginally lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.412%.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.499%.

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave flat correction pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. Wave *b* of -ii- is now complete at the 1.691% high.

 

We are moving lower in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Yesterday we decisively broke through our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily US 10 year Bond Yield Chart. The current rally is a test of that breakdown.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally form 1.412% to the current high of 1.499% looks corrective which is suggesting that once this correction ends we will heading lower again.

 

Longer term our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec121spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec121sp120.png  

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4560.00. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are sharply higher by about 56 points!

 

We are now thinking that all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.94 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in the final leg of this bull market in wave (v). It could be possible that all of wave (v) and v are now complete at the 4743.83 high and if that is the case then the multi-decade bull market is COMPLETE!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Trading Recommendation: Short with calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec121usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 95.52. After that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 96.65, and then after that high was made we moved lower again! 

 

Wild action, and looking toppy!

 

That trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 95.78!

 

We will now be adopting our alternate count as preferred which is suggesting that all of wave (i) of iii ended at 89.17 and if that is the case we are now rallying in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels: retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the possible completion of wave (ii) at the 96.94 high. After wave (ii) ends we expect the USDX to start to move lower again in wave (iii).

                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 99.00.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 99.00! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec121oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 64.44. After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 69.49!

 

After some review we have found it hard to believe that crude would now be dropping back to the $37.00/$46.00 levels in wave ii, and therefore now believe that wave i is still underway as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

We believe that we working on an expanding and extending wave (iv) of i bullish triangle. Within our triangle we may have completed wave $c$ at the 64.44 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $d$. Wave $d$ cannot trade above the wave $b$ high of 85.41 for this triangle formation to remain valid. Wave $c$ cannot trade below the wave $a$ low of 57.25 also.

 

We now expect much higher prices if wave $c$ is complete at the 64.44 low.

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97. We are now falling in wave -ii- which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.94;

61.8% = 20.75.

 

We expect lower prices ahead as wave -ii- develops.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew