DEC 10 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1021cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

CDNX was initially higher The in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 929.67, although we closed lower at 910.15!

 

All of wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- is complete at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 885.98.

 

We have reached now exceeded our 78.6% retracement level and for our current analysis to remain valid we must now assume that all of wave $ii$ is now complete at the 877.70 low.

 

We should therefore now be starting to rally sharply higher in wave $iii$ which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 1165.46.

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1021gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1021gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 30.52, closing at 30.68.

 

Within wave *iii*, we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we completed wave -i- at the 33.95 high. It now appears that wave -ii- has become more complex and has become an irregular type correction as shown on the Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts. Our retracement last level for all of wave -ii- is:

 

78.6% = 29.93.

 

We have now almost reached our 78.6% retracement level and for current analysis to remain valid we do not want to trade much below that level. We now need to be guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of another rally in wave -iii-. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 30.09 low.  

 

The inability of the GDX to hold above the 30.96 breakout of this week is a bit worrisome as we now need to consider the possibly that all of larger wave *ii* correction is still underway and therefore did not end at the 28.83 low.

 

The 78.6% retracement level must hold, otherwise wave *ii* is still likely underway and the GDX will be heading back at least to the 28.83 low again.  

 

Our head and shoulder bottom formation is still in play although it has been delayed as the right shoulder is being formed now.  

 

All of wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Updates on Gold and Gold Indices are Coming Soon.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdc1021gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued more most of the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1770.50.

 

After the release of the US November Inflation Indicator gold moved higher reaching a high of 1783.60!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Wave .d. ended at 1879.50.

 

We are now falling in wave .e. which could be complete at the 1762.40 low. After wave .e. and -iv- end we can expect a huge thrust higher in wave -v-, which will take gold to all time new highs.

 

A likely place for wave .e. to end would be on our purple uptrend line that is shown on our Daily Gold Chart, which we have now reached. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave .e. and -iv- are complete at the 1762.40 low.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear o be forming a bearish triangle formation that still remains incomplete. We need one more rally for this formation to complete. This rally cannot trade above the 1794.30 high otherwise this triangle will be extending or expanding or possibly be eliminated.

 

 Only a rally above the 1816.20 would eliminate this pattern completely. This bearish triangle is suggesting, however, that the 1762.40 low is likely not the end of wave .e.

 

Bulls should be using the setback to add or go long gold.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

                            

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1021si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 21.82.

 

After the release of the US November Inflation Indicator we moved higher reaching a high of 22.13!

 

With the depth of this current correction now extending our 78.6% retracement level it now looks like wave ii has become more complex and is still underway.

 

We have updated our count on our Daily Silver Chart. Wave I still ended at the 29.91 high, but within wave ii, it looks like wave (a) ended at 21.81 and wave (b) at 30.35.

 

We are now falling in wave (c) which has become and ending diagonal triangle.

 

Within that diagonal triangle we are falling in wave -v- of (c) which a minimum target of the wave -iii- low of 21.41.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We now expect lower prices in silver at least until we reach our 50% retracement level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1021bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.472%.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.513%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave flat correction pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. Wave *b* of -ii- is now complete at the 1.691% high.

 

We are now moving lower in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Longer term our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 1.770%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1021spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1021sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4665.98. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 17 points!

 

We are now thinking that all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.94 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying in the final leg of this bull market in wave (v). It could be possible that all of wave (v) and v are now complete at the 4743.83 high and if that is the case then the multi-decade bull market is COMPLETE!

 

As you can see on our Daily and 120 Min SP500 Charts we are now sitting on the Armageddon Support Line.

 

A clean break through that line would indicate that a major top in the US Stock Market has been made at the 4743.87 high.

 

The other option is that wave (v) is going to extend higher with wave -i- of (v) ending at the 4743.83 and the current drop is all or most of wave -ii- of (v). This is now our alternate count.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Trading Recommendation: Short with calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1021usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session rand that trend higher has continued for most of the overnight session as we reached a high of 96.43.

 

After the release of the US November Inflation Indicator we moved lower reaching a low of 96.10!

 

We will now be adopting our alternate count as preferred which is suggesting that all of wave (i) of iii ended at 89.17 and if that is the case we are now rallying in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels: retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the possible completion of wave (ii) at the 96.94 high.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect the USDX to start to move lower again in wave (iii).

                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 97.00.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 97.00!

                                                                                                                     

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1021oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued for most of the overnight session as we reached a low of 70.34. After that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 72.29!

 

After some review we have found it hard to believe that crude would now be dropping back to the $37.00/$46.00 levels in wave ii, and therefore now believe that wave i is still underway as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

We now believe that we working on an expanding and extending wave (iv) of i bullish triangle. Within our triangle we may have completed wave $c$ at the 62.46 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $d$. Wave $d$ cannot trade above the wave $b$ high of 85.41 for this triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Wave $c$ cannot trade below the wave $a$ low of 57.25 also.

 

Wave $c$ is complete at the 62.46 low and we are now rallying in wave $d$..

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97. We are now falling in wave -ii- which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.94;

61.8% = 20.75.

 

We expect lower prices ahead as wave -ii- develops.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew