dec 11 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX:

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1120cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was marginally higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 776.15, closing at 775.34.

 

We continue to work on a subdividing wave (v), and within wave (v) we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ =793.84.

 

It could now be possible that all of wave $iii$ is complete a the 790.63 high and if that is the case then we should now expect a wave $iv$ correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $iii$ rally.

 

We give this market another day or so to see if there is at least one more push higher before all of wave $iii$ ends.  

 

In the longer term our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.                                                             

                                                                                        

Longer term after wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1120gdx60.png  

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1120gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways in yesterday’s trading session, closing at 35.24.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of *i* of -3- ended at the 45.78 high and that we now falling in wave *ii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

The failure of gold to hold the 1848.00/1851.00 level is suggesting that gold, silver and the GDX will be dropping to new lows within their respective corrections.

 

As you know the current low in the GDX is well above its 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 30.98, so a continued drop in an incomplete wave *ii* would not be a surprise.

 

For the time being, however, we will still assume that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 33.25 low, but our current confidence in this assumption is very low.

 

If wave *ii* is complete at the 33.25 low then we are now rallying in wave -i- of *iii*, and within wave -i-, wave $i$ likely ended at the 36.92 high and all or most of wave $ii$ at the 35.01 low.

 

After wave $ii$ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave $iii$.

 

We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave *iii*, when we believe all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will be completing the updates of our analysis and charts as this week for the following:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03): We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec11gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was initially higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1853.80.

 

After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session reaching a low of 1827.30.

 

We are now working on the assumption that within wave *iii*, all of wave ^i^ ended at the 2077.90 high and that we now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1764.40;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1690.40.

 

The failure of gold to hold the 1848.00/1851.00 support line supports our belief that wave ^ii^ is still underway as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

We tried to rally above that resistance level again in yesterday’s day session and failed again, so there is little doubt in our minds about our current count.

 

A break below the 1825.00/1827.00 level should send this market lower, which could happen today.

 

Wave ^ii^ is still underway working on a modified double 3 corrective pattern, with our second wave (b) ending at the 1879.80 high.

 

We should now falling again in our second wave (c), which has minimum target of 1767.20, although we expect the end of wave ^ii^ to occur somewhere within the above retracement zone.  

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

We will add to our long positions at 1735.00!!

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. Add long at 1735.00

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! Add long at 1735.00.

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec11si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was initially higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 24.43.

 

After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 23.70.

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high, but we continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We have updated our count to show that wave (ii) is still underway and we expect a sharp drop in wave -c- to complete all of wave (ii). As you know this wave (ii) correction is still above its 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement levels, which supports further downside in this market.

 

As a minimum wave -c- should reach the 21.81 low but we expect it will drop below that level to at least our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level shown above. A break of the 23.65/23.70 level will send this market sharply lower, which could happen today.

 

We will add to our long positions at 19.35.  

 

We will provide our initial projected endpoint for wave (iii), when we are sure that all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop. Add long at 19.35.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop. Add long at 19.35.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1120bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 0.882{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

We have finally reached our minimum projection for the completion of wave -c- and ^ii^ at the 0.986{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We have also reached our retracement zone for wave ^ii^, which is:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete the 0.986{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1120spd.png  

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1120sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 3645.18. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 25 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Our current projected high for all of wave -iii- of (iii) is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

The current high for this wave -iii- rally is 3712.39, and we also had a key daily reversal lower this week.

 

This high may well be the end of wave -iii-!

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- drop that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally, which we will provide once we believe wave -iii- is complete.           

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1120usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 90.62.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 91.05.

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave *v* and -iii- at the 90.47 low, although we are not sure it is complete. We will need to give this market a few more days to see how it trades.

 

If wave -iii- is complete then we should expect a wave -iv- rally that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop, and we will provide those levels when we believe all of wave -iii- is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1120oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 47.73. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 46.38.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 33.64 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

We expect higher prices.

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave i ended at the 21.73 high and a very deep wave (ii) at the 10.67 low. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.    

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

 

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thanks
st