DEC 12 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Captain Ewave Weekly Charts Post

 

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1221gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold generally moved sideways this past week, closing just marginally higher at 1784.80!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and our current preferred count is still suggesting that our lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle is still underway.

 

Within our wave -iv- triangle it now looks like all of wave .d. ended at the 1879.50 high and if that is the case then we should now be falling in wave .e.

 

We have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for wave .e., so we need to be guard for the completion of all of our length wave -v- bullish triangle, possibly at the 1762.20 low.

 

Wave .e. cannot drop below the wave .c. low of 1675.90 for this current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

We are within our retracement zone for wave -iv- also.

 

On the Intraday Chart we are watching a potential bearish triangle formation that started at the 1816.20 high.

 

A break of that level now would eliminate that formation and confirm that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle is complete at the 1762.20 low.

 

In the short term if we break above 1794.30 in the next day or so our first reaction would be that this bearish triangle formation is just expanding and exceeding unless we continue to rally to the 1816.20 high.

 

With silver now looking like its wave ii is not complete at the 21.41 low, it seems likely that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle in gold may not be compete at the 1762.20 low.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher wave -v-, which should take gold to all time new highs.

 

Our alternate counts still remain in play as follows:

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-.  

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1221si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was lower this past week reaching a low of 21.82, closing at 22.19!  

                                                                  

The depth of the current ongoing drop in silver now suggests to us that all of wave ii is NOT complete at the 21.41 low.

 

Our updated count now suggests that all of wave i ended at 29.91, and within wave ii, wave (a) ended at 21.81, wave (b) at 30.35, and we are now falling in an ending diagonal triangle wave (c) formation that has a minimum target of 21.41. Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

 50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We expect lower prices in silver as we work on wave -v- of (c) of ii, over the next couple of weeks.                                  

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1.537%, closing at 1.489%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over and it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.693% high. We have now labeled our internal wave count for all of wave *b* to suggest that it has become a double 3 wave correction pattern, which ended at the 1.693% high.

 

We are now falling in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

Crude Oil:                                                                                     

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1221oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 73.34, closing at 71.67!

 

We believe that wave i is still underway and that the current setback is a very large wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

Wave (iii) ended at the 67.98 high. Within our bullish triangle, wave -c- is now complete at the 62.43 low, and we should now be rallying in wave -d-.

 

Wave -d- cannot trade above the wave -b- high of 85.41.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1221su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor moved sideways this past week, although we closed higher at 24.62!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

It looks like our major breakout is going to be delayed as wave (iii) appears to be subdividing with wave -i- of (iii) ended at the 26.97 high. We are now falling in wave -ii- which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.94;

61.8% = 20.75.

 

We now expect lower prices as wave -ii- develops, as we are still a bit short of our 50% retracement level.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                             

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1221sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 4713.57, closing at 4712.20!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.97 low and it looks like wave (v) is going to extend higher with wave -i- of (v) ending at 4743.83 and all of wave -ii- at 4495.12.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- of (v).  

 

We will decide on Monday Morning if we should exit our short positions, although we will likely keep our call options for the run higher.

 

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1221usd.png

  

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways this past week, although we closed one tick lower at 96.10!

 

We have now updated our count to suggest that within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at 89.17. We are now rallying in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at the 96.94 high and that we have started to move sharply lower in wave (iii).

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of wave (ii) this week in our Morning Posts.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 97.00!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1221cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 929.67, closing at 908.99!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

Wave $i$ of -iii- ended at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$. We have reached our 78.6% retracement level for all of wave $ii$ so we need to be guard for its completion and the start of another sharp rally in wave $iii$.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1221gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways this past week, although we closed lower at 30.49.

 

All of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and we are now rallying in wave *iii*, which has the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii*, all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii ended at 33.95 it looks like we are now working on a complex irregular type wave -ii- correction.

 

Our last retracement level for wave -ii- is:

 

78.6% = 29.93.

 

We are very near our 78.6% retracement level so for our current analysis to remain valid we need to turn higher in wave -iii- very soon.

 

We are starting to think that all of wave *ii* may not be complete at the 28.83 low.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                        

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1221bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin shot higher this past week, although we closed lower at 48566 at the time of this writing.

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

Within wave B or 2 all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low and wave (b) is at the 68979 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (c), which should be heading back to at least the wave (a) low of 28908 to complete all of wave 2 or B. Our 61.8% retracement level is lower that that at around 25000.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew