dec 17 morning post!

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

Sent st’s GU letter by accident. Sorry. Here is the captain!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1720cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 800.03, closing on its high for a second straight day at 800.03!

 

 

We continue to work on a subdividing wave (v), and within wave (v) we are now rallying in wave $iii$. It now looks like wave $iii$ is still moving higher and likely to our second projected endpoint which is: which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 866.38.

 

After wave $iii$ ends we should expect a wave $iv$ correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $iii$ rally.   

 

In the longer term our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.                                                                                                                  

                                                                                        

Longer term after wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1720gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1720gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 36.04, closing at 36.03.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of *i* of -3- ended at the 45.78 high and that we now falling in wave *ii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

Gold has traded above the 1848.00/1851.00 level which is a bit of surprise to us, however we will wait and see where it ends up by the end of the week.

 

The current low in the GDX is well above its 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 30.98, so a continued drop in our incomplete wave *ii* would not be a surprise.

 

For the time being, however, we will still assume that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 33.25 low, but our current confidence in this assumption is low. If wave *ii* is complete at the 33.25 low then we are now rallying in wave -i- of *iii*, and within wave -i-, wave $i$ likely ended at the 36.92 high and all or most of wave $ii$ at the 34.29. low. After wave $ii$ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave $iii$.

 

This outcome would mean that gold and silver and going to move higher also and not return to their respective lows.

 

We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave *iii*, when we believe all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We will add to our long positions at 29.50.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will be completing the updates of our analysis and charts as this week for the following:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices. Add more longs at 29.50.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! Adding longs at 29.50.

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1720gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1891.60!

 

We continue to work on the assumption that within wave *iii*, all of wave ^i^ ended at the 2077.90 high and that we now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1764.40;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1690.40.

 

Gold has now moved back above the 1848.00/1851.00 resistance line which is an interesting development support line however we still have doubts as whether this that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 1767.20 low.  

 

We still think that wave ^ii^ is still underway working on a modified double 3 corrective pattern, with our second wave (b) still being underway as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

WE have now exceeded the wave -a- of (b) high of 1879.80, so if our current thinking is correct, then all of wave (b) could end at any time. After wave (b) ends we should expect one more drop in our second wave (c). Our minimum target of our second wave (c) is 1767.20, although we expect the end of wave ^ii^ to occur somewhere within the above retracement zone.

 

A rally and string break above our red downtrend line would suggest that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 1767.20 low, and we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^. This is now out alternate count.. 

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

We will add to our long positions at 1735.00.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. Add long at 1735.00

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! Add long at 1735.00.

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1720si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 26.13!

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high, but we continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are still working on the assumption that wave (ii) is still underway and we expect a sharp drop in wave -c- to complete all of wave (ii), although the break above the red downtrend line maybe suggesting that all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

If wave (ii) is complete then it likely ended at the 21.81 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave (iii), which likely has wave -i- of (iii) ending at 25.71 and all of wave -ii- of (iii) at the 21.96 low. We would be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii- of (iii). Our concern remains that the 21.81 low is still above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave (ii).

 

Our preferred option is that our wave -b- of (ii) triangle is expanding as shown on the Daily Silver Chart. We should be close to finishing all of wave *c* of -b- if this count is correct. A break and strong close above our red downtrend line would suggest that our alternate count is the correct path for silver and that all of wave (ii) would be complete at the 21.86 low. This wave (ii) correction has certainly been complex.

 

We will add to our long positions at 19.35.  

 

We will provide our initial projected endpoint for wave (iii), when we are sure that all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop. Add long at 19.35.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop. Add long at 19.35.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1720bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 0.921{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

We have finally reached our minimum projection for the completion of wave -c- and ^ii^ at the 0.986{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We have also reached our retracement zone for wave ^ii^, which is:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete the 0.986{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1720spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1720sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 3711.27. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 21 points!

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Our current projected high for all of wave -iii- of (iii) is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

The current high for this wave -iii- rally is 3712.39, although it looks like there is still some further upside within wave -iii-, as we still see how we trade and close today. After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- drop that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally, which we will provide once we believe wave -iii- is complete.           

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1720usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 89.69.

 

We continue to fall in wave *v* and -iii-. It looks like we are now heading to our second projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- rally that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop, and we will provide those levels when we believe all of wave -iii- is complete.

 

As a minimum a drop to 88.00 is starting to appear likely before all of wave -iii- ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec1720oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 48.60!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 33.64 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

We still expect higher prices, before we get our first bigger correction. We are rallying in wave $i$ of (iii).

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave i ended at the 21.73 high and a very deep wave (ii) at the 10.67 low. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.    

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew