DEC 19 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 1753.00, although after that low was made, we moved higher reaching a high 1815.70, closing at 1804.90!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and our current preferred count is suggesting that our lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle is still underway.

 

Within our wave -iv- triangle all of wave .d. ended at the 1879.50 high.

 

We are now falling in wave .e. that we believe is likely NOT complete at the 1753.00 low.

 

Within wave .e., wave ^a^ ended at 1753.00, and we are now rallying in wave ^b^ which is likely not complete yet. After wave ^b^ ends we expect one more drop in wave ^c^, to below the 1753.00 wave ^a^ low to complete all of wave .e. and our bullish wave -iv- triangle.

 

Wave .e. cannot drop below the wave .c. low of 1675.90 for this current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

We did have a bullish key weekly reversal this week, so there is a (very slim for now) chance that all of wave .e. and all of our bullish -iv- ended at the 1753.00 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher wave -v-, which should take gold to all time new highs.

 

Our alternate counts still remain in play as follows:

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-.  

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 21.41, although after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 22.69, closing at 22.53!  

                                                                  

Wave ii is NOT complete.

 

Our current count suggests that all of wave i ended at 29.91, and within wave ii, wave (a) ended at 21.81, wave (b) at 30.35, and we are now falling in an ending diagonal triangle wave (c) formation that has a minimum target of 21.41.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We did reach our minimum target for wave -v- of 21.41, but we still think within wave -v-, all of wave $a$ ended at 21.41, and we are now rallying in an incomplete wave $b$.

 

After wave $b$ ends we expect one more drop in wave $c$ to at least the 21.41 low, but more likely into our retracement zone for all of wave ii, before it ends.                                  

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was lower this past week reaching a low of 1.372%, closing at 1.402%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.693% high.

 

We have labeled our internal wave count for all of wave *b* to suggest that it has become a double 3 wave correction pattern, which ended at the 1.693% high.

 

We are now falling in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low.

 

We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

Crude Oil:                                                                                     

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was lower this past week reaching a low of 69.39, closing at 70.72!

 

We believe that wave i is still underway and that the current setback is a very large wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

Wave (iii) ended at the 67.98 high. Within our bullish triangle, wave -c- is now complete at the 62.43 low, and we should now be rallying in wave -d-. Wave -d- cannot trade above the wave -b- high of 85.41.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 22.56, closing at 23.18!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low.

 

We are rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

It looks like our major breakout is going to be delayed as wave (iii) appears to be subdividing with wave -i- of (iii) ended at the 26.97 high. We are now falling in wave -ii- which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.94;

61.8% = 20.75.

 

We now expect lower prices as wave -ii- develops, as we are still a bit short of our 50% retracement level.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                              

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 4731.99, although we closed sharply lower at 4620.64!

 

We are working on the assumption that all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.97 low and it looks like wave (v) is going to extend higher with wave -i- of (v) ending at 4743.83 and all of wave -ii- at 4495.12.

 

If that is the case then we are rallying higher in wave -iii- of (v).  

 

We exited our short position on Monday.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921usd.png

  

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 96.89, closing at 96.55!

 

We have now updated our count to suggest that within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at 89.17. We are now rallying in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We are now still waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) ended at the 96.94 high.

 

On the Intraday Chart we look to be forming a bullish triangle that would be suggesting that we should see one more high above the 96.94 high before all of wave (ii) ends.

 

We will see how we trade early next week, and we may move our stop higher.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 97.00!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921cdnx.png  

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower this past week reaching a low of 857.41, closing at 893.78!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

Wave $i$ of -iii- ended at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$.

 

We have traded below our 78.6% retracement level for all of wave $ii$ which may be suggesting that all of wave -ii- may now be complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 28.90, although after that low was made, we moved higher reaching a high of 31.76, closing at 31.13!

 

All of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and we are now rallying in wave *iii*, which has the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii*, all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii ended at 33.95 it now looks like wave -ii- is still underway. Our last retracement level for wave -ii- is:

 

50% = 30.98;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

Within wave -ii- we have a triple 3 wave corrective pattern, of which ae are working on the last.

 

Within that last 3 wave pattern that started at the 35.08, we think all of wave ^a^ ended at the 28.90 low.

 

We are now rallying in an incomplete wave ^b^, which then should be followed by another drop in wave ^v^ to at least the 28.83 low before all of wave -ii- ends.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was lower this past week reaching low of 45505, closing at 46864!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

Within wave B or 2 all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low and wave (b) is at the 68979 high. We are now falling in wave (c), which should be heading back to at least the wave (a) low of 28908 to complete all of wave 2 or B. Our 61.8% retracement level is lower that that at around 25000.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew