dec 2 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec220cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 760.87, closing on its high of 757.11.

 

Attention junior mining stock fans:

This market is trying to breakout higher now!

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (iv) is complete at the 665.81 low, and if it is then we should now be moving higher as shown in the Daily CDNX Chart.

 

It could still be possible that wave (iv) is still underway as an expanding and extending bullish triangle. For this bullish triangle alternate to remain valid we cannot trade below the 665.81 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv) are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 681.63;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 634.32.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect another rally in wave (v) to complete all of wave -iii-. We should be moving sharply higher now in wave $iii$ of (v) of -iii-.

 

In the longer term our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.                                                                                                                  

                                                                                        

Longer term after wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec220gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec220gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX blasted higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 36.07, and closing at 35.96!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of *i* of -3- ended at the 45.78 high and that we now falling in wave *ii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

We are still about 10{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we should further weakness in the GDX before all of wave *ii* ends, although it could be very possible that all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 33.25.

 

We will see if the GDX continues to move higher from here before we confirm this possibility.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We plan at add to our long positions at 29.75.

 

We will be updating our analysis and charts for the miners starting this week for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which has following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32!!

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices. Add to GDX at 29.75

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! Add to GDX at 29.75!

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec220gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher as continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1835.00.

 

WE are now working on the assumption that within wave *iii*, all of wave ^i^ ended at the 2077.90 high and that we now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1764.40;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1690.40.

 

The current low is still a bit short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we should expect further weakness before all of wave ^ii^ ends.

 

However, the 1767.20 low is pretty close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 1764.40! … so we need to be on guard for the potential end to wave ^ii^ at that low.

 

We note that the GDX and silver are still well above their 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement levels, but as we have mentioned previously retracements and projections are not part of Ewave theory.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide for first projection for the end of wave ^iii^, when we are sure that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

We plan to add to our long positions at 1735.00.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. Add long at 1735.00

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! Add long at 1735.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec220si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply higher (6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} on the day!) in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 24.45.

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high, but we continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are still short of our retracement levels so we expect further losses before all of wave (ii) ends, although we cannot rule the possibility that all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low.

 

From an EWaves point of view we would want silver to at least reach the 21.81 low to complete the minimum requirements for a complete double 3 corrective pattern within wave (ii).

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). WE will provide for first projection for the end of wave (iii) we are sure that all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

We plan to add to our long positions at 19.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop. Add long at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop. Add longs at 19.50!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec220bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 0.938{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 0.915{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

We have finally reached our minimum projection for the completion of wave -c- and ^ii^ at the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We have also reached our retracement zone for wave ^ii^., which is:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete the 0.975{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec220spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec220sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching an all-time high of 3678.45.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 16 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it now complete at the 3233.94 low. It was a rare failure low.

 

WE are still working on the final subdivisions of .v. and -iii- are which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- drop that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally, which we will provide once we believe wave -iii- is complete.                                                                                        

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec220usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 91.10.

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave *v* and -iii- at the 91.10 low, although we are not sure it is complete. We will need to give this market a few more days to see how it trades.

 

If wave -iii- is complete then we should expect a wave -iv- rally that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec220oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved lower in day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 43.92.

 

We have adopted our alternate count that is suggesting that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 33.64 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i0 = 93.96.  

 

Our only concern with our current wave (ii) low is that it was very shallow, although the 6.50 or -40 low was a bit of an aberration in trading.

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave i ended at the 21.73 high and a very deep wave (ii) at the 10.67 low. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.    

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                       

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew