dec 20 weekly charts post!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2020gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 1820.00, but by the end of the week we had moved higher reaching a high of 1902.,00, closing at 1888.90!

                                                                          

We continue to work on the assumption that wave *iii* is subdividing with all of wave ^i^ of *iii* ending at 2077.90. We are dropping in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1767.70;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1694.50.

 

We have retaken the 1848.00/1851.00 resistance level and also had a key weekly reversal higher this past week, which now appear to be suggesting that perhaps all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 1767.20 low!

 

For the time being will stay will our preferred count that suggests to us that wave ^ii^ is still underway and has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

In this count we are rallying in our second wave (b). Once this second wave (b) ends we expect to fall again in our second wave (c), which has minimum target of 1767.20, but likely lower than that.  

 

Our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.  

 

We plan to add to our long gold at 1735.00.       

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops, and will add at 1735.00!   

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2020si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 26.35, closing at 26.03! 

                                                                  ,

Unfortunately, we continue to believe that wave ii of 3 is still underway, with the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Silver is on the verge of breaking through very strong resistance at the 26.10/26.15 level, which perhaps is suggesting that all of wave ii ended at the 21.86 low. This now our official alternate count.

 

We still have concerns that wave ii failed to reach our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, but is sure looks like it wants to move higher. For now we will stay with our current count that is suggesting that wave ii is going to become more complex and is therefore still underway.

 

Our wave ii silver corrective pattern includes bearish triangle in wave -b- which if correct appears to be extending as shown on the Daily Silver Chart.

 

After our wave -b- bearish triangle ends we expect one more drop wave -c- which should reach our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave ii before this correction ends.

 

After wave ii ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave iii, and we will provide or initial projected endpoint for wave iii when we believe all of wave ii is complete.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

We plan to add to our long silver positions at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop, and will add at 19.50!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield were higher this past week reaching a high of 0.951{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, closing at 0.948{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will see negative rates for this market.

 

Within our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. It has taken a while but we did finally reach our minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} this week, and we are now waiting for confirmation at all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 0.986{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a sharp drop in rates in wave ^iii^, which should see rates go below zero.  

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2020oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 49.43, closing at 49.24.                                                                                      

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (iii), with all of wave (iii) having and initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

A run to the 50.00/55.00 level seems likely within wave -i-, before we get another larger correction in wave -ii- of (iii).  

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2020su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 19.16, but by the end of the week we had reversed lower reaching a low of 17.26, closing at 17.34.

 

It looks like wave i ended at 21.73 and all of a very deep wave ii correction ended at 10.67. If that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave iii. Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Suncor had a key weekly reversal lower this past week, which could be suggesting that all of wave (i) of iii is complete at the 19.16 high, and if that is the case then we should expect a wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

This might also be suggesting that the rally in crude may soon be ending, with the completion of wave -i- of (iii), and the start of its wave -ii- correction as noted above in our Crude Oil comments.  

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2020sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time high of 3726.70, and closing at 3709.41.  

 

We continued to rally higher now in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.

 

It looks like wave -iii- had more skip higher, but in general we have reached our wave -iii- projected endpoint and need to be guard for the end of wave -iii- and the start of a wave -iv- drop.

 

We cannot rule the possible that wave -iii- is going to extend higher, and in that case our next projected endpoint is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 3987.91.

 

Wave -iv- should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally. We will provide those levels when we believe that all of wave -iii- is complete.

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2020usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 89.64, closing at 89.95.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-, and now look to be heading to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

It seems like a drop to at least the 88.00 level appears likely before all of wave -iii- ends. After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- rally that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop…

 

 although that rally may still be weeks away.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2020cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 820.64, closing at 816.20!

 

We continue to rally in wave (v) of -iii- which has the following projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.  

 

Within wave (v) we are moving to our next projected endpoint for all of $iii$ of 866.38, after which we expect a small wave $iv$ correction.                                                         

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally. 

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2020gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 37.64, closing at 36.58.

 

As you can see in our Weekly GDX chart, we now believe 3 is subdividing with all of wave *i* of 3 ended at the 45.78 high and that we are correcting in wave *ii* of 3, which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

The current low for this correction is 33.25, which is still above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, but if the wave ^ii^ correction is gold is complete at the 1767.20 low then so is the correction in the GDX at the 33.25 low.

 

For now we will stay with our current count at is suggesting another drop in toe GDX to at least its 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} correction level before all of wave *ii* ends.

 

After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii* of 3, which has already stayed if all of wave *ii* is complete at the 33.25 low.

 

Our updated projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

We plan to add to our long positions at 29.75, although it is likely it will get cancelled early next week.  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and will add to the GDX at 29.75!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew