DEC 26 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec2621gold1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was higher this past week reaching a high of 1812.00, closing at 1811.70!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and our current preferred count is still suggesting that our lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle is still underway!

 

Within our wave -iv- triangle all of wave .d. ended at the 1879.50 high. We are now falling in wave .e. that we believe is still likely NOT complete at the 1753.00 low.

 

Within wave .e., wave ^a^ ended at 1753.00, and we are now rallying in wave ^b^ which is likely not complete yet either. After wave ^b^ ends we expect one more drop in wave ^c^, to below the 1753.00 wave ^a^ low to complete all of wave .e. and our bullish wave -iv- triangle.

 

Wave .e. cannot drop below the wave .c. low of 1675.90 for this current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

We did have a bullish key weekly reversal a few weeks ago, so there is a very slim chance that all of wave .e. and all of our bullish -iv- ended at the 1753.00 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher wave -v-, which should take gold to all time new highs.

 

Our alternate counts still remain in play as follows:

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-.  

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec2621si1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was higher this past week reaching a high of 22.97, closing at 22.94!  

                                                                  

Wave ii is NOT complete.

 

Our current count suggests that all of wave i ended at 29.91, and within wave ii, wave (a) ended at 21.81, wave (b) at 30.35, and we are now falling in an ending diagonal triangle wave (c) formation that has a minimum target of 21.41.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We did reach our minimum target for wave -v- of 21.41, but we still think within wave -v-, all of wave $a$ ended at 21.41, and we are now rallying in an incomplete wave $b$.

 

After wave $b$ ends we expect one more drop in wave $c$ to at least the 21.41 low, but more likely into our retracement zone for all of wave ii, before it ends.                                  

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 1.501%, closing at 1.493%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.693% high. We have now labeled our internal wave count for all of wave *b* to suggest that it has become a double 3 wave correction pattern, which ended at the 1.693% high. We are now falling in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

                                                           

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

Crude Oil:                                                                                     

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec2621oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 66.12, but after that low was made we moved higher reaching ahigh of 73.94. We closed at 73.79!

 

We had a key weekly reversal higher this past week which is suggesting higher prices likely lie ahead!

 

We continue to work on our very large wave (iv) bullish triangle. Wave (iii) ended at the 67.98 high. Within our bullish triangle, wave -c- is now complete at the 62.43 low, and we should now be rallying in wave -d-. Wave -d- cannot trade above the wave -b- high of 85.41.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec2621sun.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 22.22, but after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 24.73, closing at 24.51!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

It looks like our major breakout is going to be delayed as wave (iii) appears to be subdividing with wave -i- of (iii) ended at the 26.97 high. We are now falling in wave -ii- which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.94;

61.8% = 20.75.

 

We now expect lower prices as wave -ii- develops, as we are still a bit short of our 50% retracement level, although we did have a key weekly reversal higher last week, which could be suggesting that ball of wave -ii- is complete at the 22.22 low.

 

If that is the case then we should start to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-, and should finally break though our major red downtrend line. We will give this market a few more days before we confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 22.22 low.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec262sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 4531.10, but after that low as made we moved higher reaching a high of 4740.74. We closed at 4725.79.

 

We had a key weekly reversal higher last week which is bullish!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.97 low and it looks like wave (v) is going to extend higher with wave -i- of (v) ending at 4743.83 and all of wave -ii- at 4495.12. If that is the case then we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- of (v).  

 

We expect to break to all time new high next week.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec2621usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 95.97, closing at 95.99!

 

We have now updated our count to suggest that within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at 89.17. We are now rallying in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We are now still waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) ended at the 96.94 high.

 

On the Intraday Chart we look to formation a bullish triangle that would be suggesting that we should see one more high above the 96.94 high before all of wave (ii) ends.

 

We will see how we trade early next week, and we may move our stop higher.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 97.00!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec2621cdnx.png  

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 935.41, closing at 934.97!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

Wave $i$ of -iii- ended at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$. We have traded below our 78.6% retracement level for all of wave $ii$ which may be suggesting that all of wave -ii- may not be complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec2621gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 31.39, closing at 31.30!

 

We believe that wave *ii* is still underway as we work on our 3rd three wave corrective pattern. Our retracement levels for wave -ii- is:

 

50% = 30.98;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

Within wave *ii* we have a triple 3 wave corrective pattern, of which ae are working on the last. Within that last 3 wave pattern that started at the 35.08, we think all of wave ^a^ ended at the 28.90 low.

 

We are rallying in an incomplete wave ^b^, which with then be followed by another drop in wave ^v^ to at least the 28.83 low before all of wave *ii* ends.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD, with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec2621bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was higher this past week reaching high of 51864, closing at 50075!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

Within wave B or 2 all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low and wave (b) is at the 68979 high. We are now falling in wave (c), which should be heading back to at least the wave (a) low of 28908 to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

 Our 61.8% retracement level is lower that that, at around 25000.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew