DEC 27 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2720gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially higher this past week reaching a higher of 1912.00, but we closed marginally lower at 1883.20.

                                                                          

We continue to work on the assumption that wave *iii* is subdividing with all of wave ^i^ of *iii* ending at 2077.90. We are now dropping in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1767.70;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1694.50.

 

We haw have a three (3) rally in place from 1767.20 to the 1912.00 high on the Daily Gold Chart which if it stands, is suggesting that gold is heading back to the 1767.20 low.

 

For the time being will stay will our preferred count that suggests to us that wave ^ii^ is still underway and has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

In this count if looks like all of our second wave (b) is complete at the 1912.00 high and if that is the case we should now be falling in our second wave (c) of ^ii^, which has minimum target of 1767.20, but likely lower.  

 

Our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.  

 

We plan to add to our long gold at 1735.00.       

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops, and will add at 1735.00!   

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2720si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 27.64, but we closed marginally lower at 25.91. 

                                                                  ,

We continue to believe that wave ii of 3 is still underway, with the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Our preferred count is suggesting that our (ii) correction is still underway, with our bears wave -b- triangle formation now expanding and extending. Within our wave -b- bearish triangle, it looks like wave *c* could be complete at the 27.64 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave *d*.

 

After our wave -b- bearish triangle ends we expect one more drop wave -c- which should reach our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave ii before this correction ends.

 

After wave ii ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave iii, and we will provide or initial projected endpoint for wave iii when we believe all of wave ii is complete.

 

The alternate is that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 21.81 low and in this case we have started to rally higher in wave (iii).

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

We plan to add to our long silver positions at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop, and will add at 19.50!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield moved generally sideways this past week closing at 0.928{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will see negative rates for this market.

 

Within our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. It has taken a while but we did finally reach our minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} this week, and we are now waiting for confirmation at all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 0.986{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a sharp drop in rates in wave ^iii^, which should see rates go below zero.  

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2720oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was lower this past week reaching a low of 46.16, closing at 48.23.                                                                                      

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (iii), with all of wave (iii) having and initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

A run to the 50.00/55.00 level still seems likely within wave -i-, before we get another larger correction in wave -ii- of (iii).

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2720su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 16.29, closing at 17.10.

 

It looks like wave i ended at 21.73 and all of a very deep wave ii correction ended at 10.67. If that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave iii. Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Suncor had a key weekly reversal lower two (2) weeks ago, which could be suggesting that all of wave (i) of iii is complete at the 19.16 high, and if that is the case then we should expect a wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

This might also be suggesting that the rally in crude may soon be ending, with the completion of wave -i- of (iii), and the start of its wave -ii- correction.  

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                               

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2720spw.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower this past week reaching a low of 3636.48, closing marginally lower at 3703.06.  

 

We continued to rally higher now in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.

 

In general we have reached our wave -iii- projected endpoint and need to be guard for the end of wave -iii-, perhaps at the 3726.70 high, and the start of a wave -iv- drop. We cannot rule the possible that wave -iii- is going to extend higher, and in that case our next projected endpoint is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 3987.91.

 

Wave -iv- should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally. We will provide those levels when we believe that all of wave -iii- is complete.

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2720usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 90.95, closing marginally higher at 90.25.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-, and now look to be heading to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

It seems like a drop to at least the 88.00 level appears likely before all of wave -iii- ends. After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- rally that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop, although that rally may still be weeks away.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2720cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 845.78, closing on its high of 845.78!!

 

We continue to rally in wave (v) of -iii- which has the following projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.  

 

Within wave (v) we are moving to our next projected endpoint for all of $iii$ of 866.38, after which we expect a small wave $iv$ correction.                                                         

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally. 

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ewdec2720gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 35.03, closing at 36.03.

 

As you can see in our Weekly GDX we now believe 3 is subdividing with all of wave *i* of 3 ended at the 45.78 high and that we are correcting in wave *ii* of 3, which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

The current low for this correction is 33.25, which is still above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, but if the wave ^ii^ correction is gold is complete at the 1767.20 low then so is the correction in the GDX at the 33.25 low.

 

For now we will stay with our current count at is suggesting another drop in toe GDX to at least its 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} correction level before all of wave *ii* ends. After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii* of 3, which has already started if all of wave *ii* is complete at the 33.25 low.

 

Our confidence level in our analysis is low and we are starting to lean to the idea that the GDX is going to drop lower and test the 31.44 breakout before all of wave *ii* ends.

 

Our updated projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

We plan to add to our long positions at 29.75.  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and will add to the GDX at 29.75!

 

Thanks.

 

 

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