ew aug 4 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug4cdnx.png  

The CDNX was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 722.82, closing at 721.24. This market was closed yesterday.

 

We now believe that all of wave -iv- is complete the 648.47 low and we are now rallying in wave -v- of .i. We have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- at the current high of 722.82, but it looks like that impulsive sequence is still not complete, so we see further gains again.

 

After wave -v- and .i. end we expect a more sizable correction in wave .ii., which could see a retracement of between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave .i. rally.

 

Buying of junior mining stocks is still recommended for long term holds, especially the GDXJ.

 

Next resistance for the GDXJ is the 70.00 level.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug420gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug420gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 41.77, closing at 42.54.   

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $iv$ is complete at the 40.96 low and if that is the case we are now rallying again in wave $v$ of -v- of ^iii^.

 

There is still an outside chance that wave $iv$ could still become more complex like a flat or irregular type correction, or even a bullish triangle.  

 

On the Weekly Chart the next major resistance is at the 51.67 level.  

 

Our current projections for the end of wave -v- and all of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 43.32;

^iii^ = 4.25^i^ = 58.31.

 

Longer term first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We suspect that wave 3 will likely extend higher then the above projection also, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

 

 

Kinross: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projection of 9.68, although we suspect that wave (iii) will extend in length as our second projection for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Within wave (iii) we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 9.01;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in wave iii rally which has the following projections for its completion:

 

iii = 1.618i = 39.92;

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. If that is the case then we are now rallying sharply in wave -iii- of (iii) of iii.

 

Within wave iii we are rallying sharply in wave (iii), which has a projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

Within wave iii we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 94.44.

 

Wave (iii) is now subdividing with wave -i- ending at 68.84 and all of wave -ii- at 52.33. WE should now be rallying sharply higher again in wave -iii-.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoints:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 433.46;

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 1.618i = 351.99;

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoints:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 163.16;

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 148.70;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug420gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 1976.60 level.   

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $iv$ is now complete at the 1990.70 low and that we have started to rally again in wave $v$.

 

This next rally in gold will end all of wave ^iii^, which has a current projection of:

 

^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 2209.00

 

After wave ^iii^ ends we expect a correction in wave ^iv^ that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^iii^ rally.  

 

Our initial projection for the end of all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug420si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver also moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 24.37 level.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -iii- of (i) ended at the 26.26 high, so we are now falling in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 23.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.79.

 

Within this wave -iv- correction we have already reached our retracement level, with the 22.46 low. Also on the Intraday Chart we appear to have a 3 wave drop from 26.26 to the current low of 22.46, so it could be possible that all of wave -iv- is already complete at the 22.79 low.

 

On the Intraday Chart it looks like silver is working on a large bullish triangle that still remains incomplete.   

 

If wave -iv- is already complete at the 22.79 low, then we should expect silver to start moving higher again in wave -v-. A break through the 25.00/26.00 level is expected on this next rally, which will then complete all of wave (i).   

 

Trading Recommendation: Long at 14.85, and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug420bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 0.572{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session as we have moved lower reaching a low of 0.535{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and we continue to drift lower in wave ^b^. After wave ^b^ ends we expect to head higher in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug420spd.png  

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug420sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 3284.53.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 14 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), all of -i- of (iii) is complete at the 3233.13 high and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2999.89;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2944.84.

 

As you can see on our 120 Min SP500 Chart wave .a. is complete at the 2965.66 low, so we are now rallying in wave .b., which appears to still be underway. It looks like wave -ii- is an irregular type correction. After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -ii-. Wave .c. should drop to at least the wave .a. low of 2965.66.                                                                                                            

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug420usd.png Short Term Update:

 

The USDX moved higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 93.98. In the overnight session as we have reached moved lower reaching a low of a high of 93.24.

 

We continue to fall sharply in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave -iii- and the start of a wave -iv- rally, that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop.

 

We are still waiting for confirmation that all of wave -iii- is complete at the 92.51 low, however, as we still could see another drop lower before all of wave -iii- ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug420oil.png Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 41.13. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 40.19.

 

We have adjusted our current count for crude to suggest that all of wave (i) may be complete at the 42.51 high. If that is the case then we are now falling in the initial stages of wave (ii), which should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the enter wave (i) rally.

 

We are not totally convinced of our current count, so we will give this market a couple more days, before we provide our retracement levels for our wave (ii) correction.     

 

Suncor: Within wave C we likely completed wave (i) of i at 19.16 and likely all of wave (ii) at the 13.98 low, although we cannot now rule the possibility that it is becoming an a irregular type correction, and in this case we are no heading back to at least the 13.98 low to complete all of wave (ii).  

 

If wave (ii) is complete the we should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projection for its completion:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 29.43.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                           

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew