JAN 5 EW WEEKEND POST!

 

 

 

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan520gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was sharply higher again this week!

 

We reached 1556.10, and closed at 1555.20.  

                                                                               

We have revised the end of wave *iii* to be 1566.00. 

 

We also modified the internal wave structure of wave *iv*, which ended at the 1446.00 low.

 

On the Daily Gold Chart we have added our current internal count for wave *v* and believe that we are now rallying in wave !iii! of $iii$ of *v*.

 

As you will see on our Monday Daily Gold Chart, we have an initial target for the end of wave !iii! at: 1570.50!!

 

Our first target for the end of wave $iii$ of *v* is 1590.10, but higher targets are possible.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave *v* and .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40.                  

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!    

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan520si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was also decently higher this past week, reaching 18.32 and closing at 18.10!

                                                                  

Within wave .iii. we are now rallying in wave ^iii^, which has an initial target of:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44      

 

We expect that wave ^iii^ will consist of a five wave impulsive sequence of which we are now working on wave $i$. This week we reached our first target of 18.35, with our 18.32 high, so we should be getting close to the end of wave $i$.

 

It may be possible that wave $i$ will extend and in that case we should challenge the 18.80/18.85 level.

 

Upon completion of wave $i$, we expect a wave $ii$ correction, that should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $i$ rally.   

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 26.09.   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was lower this past week as we reached 1.786{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, closing at 1.788{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of our wave (iv) correction is still underway as it has become a complex 3 wave pattern, that includes a bullish triangle formation, as you will see in updated on Monday in our Daily 10 Year US Bond Yield Chart.

 

If this analysis is correct, we should be getting close to a low and a final thrust higher to at least the 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high, and complete all of wave (iv).

 

Once wave (iv) ends we expect a wave (v) drop to at least reach the 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low but more likely the 1.00{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan520oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply higher this past week on the US assassination in the Mid-East.

 

We reached a high of 64.08 and closed at 63.03.                         

 

Our wave (b) bearish triangle is now extending as we are now working on the final subdivisions of wave .c. of (b), a shown on our Weekly Crude Chart. Wave .c. could be complete at the 64.08 high, and if it is then we should now be falling in wave .d..

 

If wave .c. is still underway it cannot trade above the wave .a. high of 66.60, otherwise our current bearish triangle formation will be eliminated.

 

Once wave (b) ends we expect a very big drop in wave (c) which should see us drop back to at least the 26.05 level to complete all of wave b, as shown on our Weekly Crude Chart.  

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan520su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was higher this past week reaching a high of 33.56, closing at 32.82.

 

We continued to rally in wave -c- of (ii) which has a minimum target of the wave -a- high of 33.44 (we had it shown as 34.57, which was a typo). The Friday high as now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -c- and wave (ii) at the 33.56 high. We need to be guard for the end of wave (ii) and the start of a sharp drop in wave (iii).  

 

Longer term, our current count for Suncor is suggesting that we are now heading back to the wave a low of 13.10. We have completed wave b of B at the 42.27 high, and are now falling in wave c of B.

 

This count is suggesting that crude will likely be heading back to the 26.05 low also, which is our preferred count in wave b also.

 

Wave c will likely be impulsive which means it will have a 5 wave structure on its way down.   

 

Active Positions: Short crude with 60.00 call as a stop!                   

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan520sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week, reaching another all-time high at 3258.14, and closing at 3234.85.  

 

Our current preferred count is that wave v of V is not complete and we could now be heading substantiality higher. It looks like wave v is subdividing and in this case we are rallying in wave -iii- of (iii), with wave -ii- likely ending at the 2825.51 low.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3711.83.

 

Our current bearish alternate count is that wave (b) has become a more complex double 3 pattern.

 

Active Positions: Short at 2950.00, with a call as a stop.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan520usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week as we reached a low of 96.06, closing at 96.60.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) is now complete at the 99.33 high and that our wave (iii) drop has now started.

 

We need to see a sharp drop below our lower red trendline that is shown on the weekly chart to convince us that al of wave (ii) is really complete at the 99.33 high.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 100.00!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan520cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply higher this past week, tagging 591.43, and closing at 587.44!  A mountain of junior minors are beginning to look AWESOME! 

 

WE CAN’T DO WAVE COUNTS FOR ALL THESE JUNIOR STOCKS, BUT WE CAN RECOMMEND SOME OF THE GOOD ONES THAT APPEAR READY SOAR IN A BIG WAY, EVEN AHEAD OF THE CDNX C WAVE ACTION!

 

We have updated our CDNX Weekly Chart to suggest that we are still falling in wave -v-, which has minimum target of 487.01, which is the wave -iii- low, before all of wave B ends.

 

We have updated our current short term count for the CDNX to suggest that we are still working on wave .iv., as it has become a flat type correction.

 

Within wave .iv. we are now rallying -c- of .iv., which has a minimum target of 641.50, which is the wave -a- of .iv. high.

 

Once wave .iv. ends we still expect one more drop in wave .v. below the 487.01 low to complete all of wave B.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan520gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 29.87, closing at 29.17.

 

It looks like all of wave (iv) is now complete at the 25.98 low, and we have started to rally in wave (v).

 

We have updated our 60 Min and Daily GDX Charts to show our internal wave structure for wave -v-, which you will see in our next morning post!

 

Our wave (v) rally that has a current target of 48.95, which is the wave 3 projected target as follows:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95.

 

Our alternate bullish count is suggesting that only wave -iv- of (iii) likely ended at the 25.98 low and that we are starting to rally in wave -v of (iii) which has a target of 36.42.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew