aug 17 EWAVE WEEKEND!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1620gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

It was a wild week in gold this past week!

 

We moved lower reaching a low of 1876.50, but recovered some of those losses to close at 1949.80, losing a little less than $90 on the week.

                                                                          

Wave ^iii^ is complete at the 2077.90 high and we are now falling in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1959.50;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1886.20.

 

We did reach the 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level… and very quickly!!

 

So either wave ^iv^ is already complete at the 1876.50 low or it is likely developing into a bullish triangle that could take a few weeks to develop.

 

If we are working on the bullish triangle then we completed wave $a$ at the 1876.50 low and we are now rallying in wave $b$.

 

Wave $b$ could trade above the wave ^iii^ high of 2077.90 also.

 

On the Intraday Chart the current rally formation from the 1876.50 low is suggesting that the bullish triangle is likely.

 

After wave ^iv^ ends we expect gold to rally again in wave ^v^ of *iii*

 

Wave *iii* has an initial protected endpoint of:                     

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.                  

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!    

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1620si.png

Long Term Update:

 

It was also a wild week for silver this past week, as we moved lower reaching a low of 23.58, but we recovered some of those losses to close at 26.09.   

                                                                  

Silver has completed wave -iii- of (i) at the 29.91 high and we are current falling in wave -i-v, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 29.29;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 24.05.

 

We have already reached our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, although it was reached very quickly.

 

So either all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 23.58 low and we are now rallying in wave -v- … or wave -iv- is likely going to become a bullish triangle for which we would have completed wave *a* of that pattern at the 23.58 low.

 

We would are now rallying in wave *b*. Wave *b* can rally above the wave -iii- high of 29.91. On the Intraday Chart the formation of the current rally form the 23.58 low is suggesting that the bullish triangle formation is likely for wave -iv-.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50!   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

Editor Note: The Captain’s call for a rally in yields coincided with the wave down in gold, but if inflation appears, as it did in the 1970s, gold can soar higher as yields soar high.  Gold & silver are the “primo” assets to own, at historic point in government debt themed time!

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 0.727{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, closing at 0.709{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will see negative rates for this market.

 

With our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We now think that wave ^ii^ is becoming more complex and believe that a rally back to the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high should be expected before all of wave ^ii^ ends.

 

Within wave ^ii^ it is looking like wave -b- ended at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and that we are now rallying in wave -c-, which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, before it ends.  

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1620oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude moved sideways this past week, closing at 42.01.        

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (i) is now complete at the 42.51 high and if that is the case we should expect crude to drop in a wave (ii) correction.

 

We will give this market another week to confirm this observation, but if wave (ii) has begun then we except that this market will retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

A drop back to at least the 26.00 level should be expected.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1620su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was higher this past week reaching a high of 17.78, closing at 17.00.

 

Suncor made a multidecade low in wave B at the 9.61 low. We are now rallying in initial stages of a multiple year wave C.

 

In the short term we completed wave (i) at the 19.16 and we believe all of wave (ii) at the 13.98 low, although we are now thinking that wave (ii) has become more complex and in that case we will heading back to that low before all of wave (ii) ends.

 

Assuming that wave (ii) is complete at the 13.98 low, then we should be now be rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 29.43.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1620sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching a high of 3387.89, closing at 3372.85, just short of an all-time new high.  

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave -ii- is still underway.

 

Our count suggests that all of wave .a. of -ii- ended at the 2965.55 low and we are now rallying in a double 3 complex wave .b., which is still underway, which should end very soon.

 

After wave .b. ends we expect another drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

The minimum target for wave .c. is the wave .a. low of 2965.55.

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1620cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways this past week, closing at 93.11.

 

Wave *iv* of -iii- is complete at the 97.81 high, and we are now falling in wave *v* of -iii-, which has the following initial endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 91.88.

 

Wave -iii- may be complete at the 92.51 low, as we are now waiting for confirmation of that. After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- rally that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop.

 

We did introduce a much more bearish count for the USDX which is suggesting that we are still working on wave *iii* of -iii-., which a projected endpoint of:

 

*iii* = 4.25*i* = 91.32.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ewaug1620cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved sideways this this past week, closing at 737.65.

 

We continue to work on the scenario that we are rallying in wave -v- of (i) although it could be complete at the 755.53 high.  

 

After wave (i) ends, we expect a wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

We are also looking at our current count with the idea that perhaps we are still rallying in an ever extending wave -iii- of .i. and not wave -v-.

 

This would put the CDNX count into the alignment gold, silver and the GDX. The CDNX has rallied significant more that those other market in terms of percentage increase. For now we will stay with our current count.  

 

It is STILL time to be buying junior gold and mining stocks, especially the GDXJ and key CDNX miners!

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long-term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/ewfeb2419gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 38.88, although we recovered some of those losses to close at 40.35.

 

Our initial target for our ongoing wave 3 rally is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20

 

Wave 3 is subdividing and we are still rallying in wave ^iii^ of 3.

 

Wave ^iii^ is complete the 45.78 high and we are now falling in wave ^iv^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 38.21;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.66.

 

We are still a bit short of our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we suspect that wave ^iv^ is still underway.

 

We have shown a potential flat correction for wave ^iv^ on the Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts.

 

This pattern is suggesting that all of wave -a- of ^iv^ ended at the 38.88 low and that we are now rallying in wave -b-.

 

After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c- to at least the wave -a- low of 38.88 to complete all of wave ^iv^.

 

Wave ^iv^ could also become a bullish triangle with wave -a- of that pattern ending at the 38.88 low. We would now be rallying in wave -b- which could exceed the wave ^iii^ high of 45.78.

 

Next significant resistance is up at the 51.67 level.  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Thanks.