feb 1 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb121cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 938.32, but we closed marginally lower at 922.06.

 

Longer term, we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Within wave .iii. we are working on wave -iii-, which has an updated projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 984.77.

                                                                                        

We cannot rule the possibly that all of wave -iii- is complete at the 967.16 high, although that high is still a bit short of our projected high of 984.77. If wave -iii- is now complete then we should expect a wave -iv- drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 898.46.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 856.04.

 

We will give this market another day or so before we confirm that all of wave -iii- is complete at the 967.16 high.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key CDNX miners, for a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb121gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb121gdxd.png

 

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 35.68, although we closed marginally lower at 34.51.

 

Our lengthy wave *ii* correction continues to develop as shown on our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts.

 

We appear to still be working on a double 3 wave corrective drop and within that pattern we completed our second wave ^b^ at the 39.01 high.

 

We are now dropping in our second wave ^c^ to complete all of wave *ii*, with a minimum target of 33.25, but more likely lower…into our noted retracement zone below. We are watching a potential ending diagonal triangle formation on the 60 Min GDX Chart as delineated with our blue trendlines.

 

This formation currently remains incomplete and needs another drop below the 33.63, although it could expand and extend like regular triangles usually do. Remember we only need a drop to the 33.25 low to complete the minimum requirements to complete this complex wave *ii* correction.

 

We expect our second wave ^c^ to reach our retracement levels for all of wave *ii*, which are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.                                   

 

Wave *ii* could also reach our lower red trendline before it ends.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We are now going to add to our long positions at 29.50.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices. Add to longs at 29.50.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb121gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 1878.90. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1868.50 level.  

 

We continue to believe that all of wave ^ii^ is not complete at the 1767.20 low, that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1764.40;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1690.40.

 

It looks like wave ^ii^ is a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart with our second wave (b) being complete at the 1962.50 high.

 

We are now falling in our second wave (c) which has minimum target of 1767.20, but likely lower into our noted retracement noted above. We have a projection for the end of wave (c) as:

 

(c) = (a) = 1763.60.

 

It looks like from the 1800.60 low to the current high of 1878.90 that we have a bearish 3 wave rally in place, which is suggesting lower price ahead once this rally ends

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

We will add to our long positions at 1735.00.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. Add to longs at 1735.00

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! Add to longs at 1735.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb121si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend sharply higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached aa high of 30.31.

 

REDDIT IS THE BIG STORY, BUT WE DON’T MOLD OUR WAVE COUNTS TO FIT THAT OR ANY OTHER FUNDAMENTALS. 

 

WE WILL NOTE THE CAPTAIN HAS SOLD NO GOLD, SILVER, OR MINERS BEFORE OR DURING THIS REACTION, AND WE PLAYING FOR MUCH BIGGER UPSIDE NUMBERS WHEN THE REACTION ENDS!

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high, but we continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We have updated our internal count for wave (ii) to suggest that are still working on a double 3 wave -b- of (i) irregular type correction that should be ending very soon. After wave -b- ends we should drop sharply in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

The rally from 21.81 to the 30.31 high is not impulsive looking which supports our current view this is rally is still part of a developing wave (ii) correction.

 

We have a another projection for the end of wave -c- as:

 

-c- = -a- = 20.00.

 

We will add to our long positions at 19.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop. Add to long positions at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop. Add to long positions at 19.50! 

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb121bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in Friday’s day session reaching ahigh of 1.079{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session have moved lower reaching a low of 1.069{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case, we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave -b- at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. For this current analysis to remain valid wave -c- would likely need to be complete at the 1.187{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high, otherwise we will need to conclude that wave ^ii^ is still underway, and we will at least be heading to the 1.266{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

It looks like wave ^ii^ is still underway, with our retracement zone for wave ^ii^ being:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

We have now exceeded our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we need to see this market turn lower soon, otherwise we will need to conclude that all of wave ^ii^ may not be complete at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. Our retracement levels for wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.15{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.33{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

This is our alternate count now as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb12021spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb121sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 3694.12. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 34 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -iii- is complete at the 3870.90 high, and that we have started to drop in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3504.46;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3401.50.

 

We expect wave -iv- should take a month or so to develop.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect a wave -v- rally to complete all of wave (iii).         

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb121usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways in Friday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 90.91.

 

We continue to fall in wave *v* and -iii-, although it may now be complete at the 89.17 low. Our second projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

A break and close above the upper red downtrend line shown on our Daily USDX Chart will likely confirm that all of wave -iii- is complete at the 89.17 low and that our expected wave -iv- rally is now underway. So far we have failed to break and close above this line, but we are trying again today to do so.

 

The wave -iv- rally should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop, and we will provide those levels when we believe all of wave -iii- is complete.

 

The wave -iv- rally in the USDX will likely coincide with the second wave (c) drop in gold that is now underway.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb121oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in Friday’s trading session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 52.59 level. The climate change policies of President Biden and the associated shutting down of US oil production there is very bullish for crude prices moving forward.

 

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

It now looks like wave $i$ of (iii) is extending higher with a run to the 55.00 level being possible before all of wave $i$ ends. After wave $i$ ends we expect a wave $ii$ correction that should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $i$ rally.  

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at 16.29, although the 16.29 low is above the 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of a wave -ii- correction, which could be suggesting that it is not complete at the 16.29 low. It is starting to look like wave -ii- is still underway as we should see a drop below the 16.29 low before it ends. Our retracement levels for wave -ii- are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 15.51;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 14.21.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew