FEB 17 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb1721cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 1098.85, closing at 1088.13.                                        

                                                                                  

Wave (iii) is extending higher and likely heading to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

(iii) = 6.25(i) = 1136.10.                                        

 

We continue to move higher in an extending wave (iii) rally, as we are still short of our projected endpoint for its completion. After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

Longer term, we should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb1721gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb1721gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 34.08, closing at 34.09.

 

Our lengthy wave *ii* correction continues to develop as shown on our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts.

 

We appear to still be working on a double 3 wave corrective drop and within that pattern we completed our second wave ^b^ at the 39.01 high.

 

We have now reached our minimum target for the completion of wave ^c^ at the 33.23 low. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave *ii* is complete at that low, although we are still above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of our wave *ii* correction. This is now our alternate count.

 

We are also now watching for another potential ending diagonal triangle formation as shown on our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts (bounded by the blue trendlines). If this is the path that the GDX is going to follow then we should expect one more drop below the 33.23 low to complete this diagonal triangle formation, before all of wave ^ii^ finally ends.

 

Gold and silver do NOT appear to have completed their current corrections, so it seems likely that the GDX will continue to drop further.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii*, which are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.                                   

 

Wave *ii* could also reach our lower red trendline before it ends.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We are now going to add to our long positions at 29.50.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices. Add to longs at 29.50.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb1721gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1774.80.  

 

We continue to believe that all of wave ^ii^ is not complete at the 1767.20 low, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1764.40;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1690.40.

 

It looks like wave ^ii^ is a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, as we are continuing to fall in our second wave (c) which has minimum target of 1767.20, but likely lower into our noted retracement noted above. We have a projection for the end of wave (c) as:

 

(c) = (a) = 1763.60.

 

We are also watching for a potential ending diagonal triangle formation within wave (c) as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. The diagonal triangle is bounded by our blue trendlines.

 

If this formation is valid then we should expect gold to drop one more time below at least the 1784.60 to complete the pattern, before we move sharply higher as wave ^ii^ will be complete. A rally now above the 1878.90 high now would eliminate this pattern.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

We will add to our long positions at 1735.00.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. Add to longs at 1735.00

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! Add to longs at 1735.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb1721si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was initial marginally higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 28.08. After the high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 26.88. In the overnight session we have moved sideways to currently be trading at the 27.00 level.

 

Silver had a key daily reversal lower in yesterday’s trading session, which could be suggesting lower prices again.

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We are now dropping sharply in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We will add to our long positions at 19.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop. Add to long positions at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop. Add to long positions at 19.50! 

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb1721bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.333{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We have now reached our minimum target for the completion of all of wave ^ii^, as we have traded above the wave -a- high of 1.266{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We have also reached our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave ^ii^, at the 1.333{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. Those retracements levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.15{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}                           

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.33{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

We now need to be guard for the completion of wave ^ii^ and the start of a drop in wave ^iii^.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb1721spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb1721sp20.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching another all-time high at 3950.43, although we closed marginally lower at 3932.59. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are about unchanged.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

It appears that this wave -iii- rally is never ending as we continue to move higher. We still think the upside in this market is very limited and after it ends we expect a wave -iv- that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.  Wave -iv- should take a month or so to develop.    

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb1721usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 90.95.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -iii- is now complete at the 89.17 low and that we have started to rally higher in wave -iv-. Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

The wave -iv- rally in the USDX will likely coincide with an accelerated second wave (c) drop in gold and the wave -c- drop in silver that are both now underway.

                                                                                                                      

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb1721oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day trading session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached high of 61.26.

 

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

It now looks like wave $i$ of (iii) is extending higher.

 

Crude has now reached our major multi-year downtrend line that connects 147.27, 112.24, 107.68, 76.90 and 65.65. We still expect that all of wave $i$ will likely end soon, but a sharp bust through this major trendline now could see a spike rally in crude to around $70 before all of wave $i$ ends. After wave $i$ ends we expect a wave $ii$ correction that should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $i$ rally.  

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at 16.29, although the 16.29 low is above the 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of a wave -ii- correction, which could be suggesting that it is not complete at the 16.29 low. We will give this market a few more days to confirm whether all of wave -ii- is complete at the 16.29 low. Our retracement levels for wave -ii- are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 15.51;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 14.21.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew