feb 23 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2321cndx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 1113.64, although we closed lower at 1082.96.                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Wave (iii) is extending higher and likely heading to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

(iii) = 6.25(i) = 1136.10.                                        

 

We continue to move higher in an extending wave (iii) rally, as we are still a little short of our projected endpoint for its completion.

 

As you can see on our Daily CNDX Chart we appear to have developed an ending diagonal triangle formation, as bounded by our two red converging trendlines.

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that pattern to now be complete and a sharp drop below the 1028.06 low will confirm that this pattern and all of wave (iii) are likely complete at the 1113.64 high.

 

We also had a key daily reversal lower in yesterday’s trading session, which could be suggesting a temporary top is currently in for this market.

 

Of course, this triangle formation could extend and expand as we know triangle formations like to do, as long as we stay above the 1028.06 low.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we believe all of wave (iii) is complete.

 

Longer term, we should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2321gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2321gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 34.35, closing at 34.21.

 

Our lengthy wave *ii* correction continues to develop as shown on our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts.

 

We have now reached the lower blue trendline of our ending diagonal triangle formation as shown on the Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave *ii* is complete at the current low of 32.54.  

 

The final confirmation of the end of this diagonal triangle and the end of wave ^ii^ will come if we now move higher and trade above the 35.61 high.

 

In spite of our wave ^ii^ correction still being above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level we need to be on guard for the completion of our wave ^ii^ correction at these levels and the start of a big reversal as we begin to move sharply higher in wave ^iii^.

 

Gold may be getting close to completing all of its wave ^ii^ correction also, although we now doubt whether our current count for silver is correct. (see below for details)

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii*, which are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.                                   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We are now going to add to our long positions at 29.50.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices. Add to longs at 29.50.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2321gold.png  

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1815.10.  

 

We have now reached at least our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave ^ii^. Our retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1764.40;                                                                                                                     

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1690.40.

 

We have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for our wave ^ii^ correction at the 1759.20 low, and now need to be on guard for its completion and the start of a powerful wave ^iii^ rally. We did get a key daily reversal higher in Friday’s trading session which may be our first sign of a major low and trend reversal to come. We also have reached our other projection for the end of our second wave (c), which is:

 

(c) = (a) = 1763.60.

 

The final confirmation of the end of wave ^ii^ being at the 1759.00 low will only occur if we now rally above the 1856.60 high, and break above of upper blue trendline of our ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

We will add to our long positions at 1735.00.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. Add to longs at 1735.00

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! Add to longs at 1735.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfe2321si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 28.42.

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We are now dropping sharply in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are really starting to wonder silver will actually drop by $6 plus as our current count is suggesting, based on where gold is now trading. For now we will stay with our current count for silver, but out confidence in this count is dropping fast, and that’s good news!

 

We will add to our long positions at 19.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop. Add to long positions at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop. Add to long positions at 19.50! 

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb22321bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.326{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching ahigh of 1.382{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We have now reached our minimum target for the completion of all of wave ^ii^, as we have traded above the wave -a- high of 1.266{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We have also now exceeded our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave ^ii^, at the 1.331{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. Those retracements levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.15{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}                           

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.33{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

For our current analysis to remain valid we need this market to turn down soon, otherwise we will need to assume that a major multi-decade low in interest rates has been made at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. Rate will now be heading higher for many years to come.

 

Our alternate count is now shown on the US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart and this count is suggesting that we are heading to the 1.91{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level in wave (iii), before we see a meaningful correction in wave (iv).        

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2321spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2321sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 3874.71. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 18 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

It appears that this wave -iii- rally is never ending as we continue to move higher. We still think the upside in this market is very limited and after it ends we expect a wave -iv- that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally. Wave -iv- should take a month or so to develop, once it begins.    

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2321usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 89.93.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -iii- is now complete at the 89.17 low and that we have started to rally higher in wave -iv-. Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

The wave -iv- rally in the USDX will likely coincide with an accelerated second wave (c) drop in gold and the wave -c- drop in silver that are both now underway.

                                                                                                                      

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2321oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 62.99.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

It now looks like wave $i$ of (iii) is still underway, but we think a top is likely near. After wave $i$ ends we expect a wave $ii$ correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $i$ rally. We will provide those retracement levels we believe that all of wave $i$ is complete.

 

Crude has now reached our major multi-year downtrend line that connects 147.27, 112.24, 107.68, 76.90 and 65.65. If wave $i$ continues higher, then we should soon see a very sharp rally through this major trendline that could see crude reach the $70/$75 level before all of wave $i$ ends.   

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at 16.29, although the 16.29 low is above the 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of a wave -ii- correction, which could be suggesting that it is not complete at the 16.29 low. We will give this market a few more days to confirm whether all of wave -ii- is complete at the 16.29 low. Our retracement levels for wave -ii- are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 15.51;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 14.21.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew