FEB 28 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

One of you asked about options.  While the Captain isn’t a financial advisor and isn’t comfortable getting into exact strike prices, contracts and rollover dates in the newsletter, and rightly so, Editor Stu is a former broker and current fund manager and will provide some “Using Options, ETFs, and Futures” with Ewave” pointers early this week.

 

Note that the Captain has a BITCOIN section in the weekly charts post now!

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2821gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 1714.90, closing at 1728.80.

                                                                          

We continue to drop in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1767.70;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1694.50.

 

Wave ^ii^ is still underway and has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, as we continue to fall in our second wave (c) of ^ii^.

 

We have dropped well within our current retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the completion of all of wave ^ii^ and that start of a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^.

 

Confirmation of the completion of wave ^ii^ will now occur if we rally above the 1815.20 high, which is the upper end of our expanded ending diagonal triangle formation which is our second wave (c).

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.     

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops, and we added more at 1735.00 on Friday! 

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2821si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 28.42, but after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 26.16, closing at 26.44.  

                                                                  

We continue to believe that wave ii of 3 is still underway, with the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are still falling in wave c which has a minimum target of the wave a low of 21.81, but likely lower…somewhere within our above-mentioned retracement zone.

 

However, based on what silver is doing compared to gold we are not so sure that silver is going to fall very much from these current levels.

 

It could be possible that all of wave ii in silver ended at the 21.96 low and in that case we have already starting rallying in wave iii.

 

We will give this market another week to see if this is what is really happening.

 

We did have a key weekly reversal lower this past week, which could be suggesting lower prices next week.  

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

We plan to add to our long silver positions at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop, and will add at 19.50!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1.614{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, but the end of the week we had closed only modestly higher, at 1.460{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to rally higher in this market and now have now reached our 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave ^ii^, which is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.580{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

For our current analysis to remain valid we need to move lower from these levels in the start of a wave ^iii^ drop otherwise we need to conclude that the multi-year bear market in rates is complete at the 0.386{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and that we have started to climb higher again for years to come.  

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2821oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was higher this past week reaching a high of 63.81 closing at 61.60.                                                                                      

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (iii), with all of wave (iii) having and initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

Within wave (iii), we continue to rally higher in wave -i-, although it may be complete now at the 63.81. high. We have arrived at the multi-year downtrend line that is shown on our Weekly Crude Chart.

 

If wave -i- is now complete at the 63.81 high then we should expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally, as the next big event in this market.

 

We will provide those retracement levels once we believe that all of wave -i- is complete.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2821su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor moved higher this past week reaching a high of 21.86, closing at 19.86.

 

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave iii. Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -i- ended at the 19.94 and likely all of wave -ii- at the 16.29 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-.    

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2821sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 3789.54, closing at 3811.55.

 

It is starting to look like all of wave -iii- could finally be complete at the 3950.43 high. If that is the case then we should expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

We will give this market another day or so to see which way it goes, as there appears to be an in complete ending diagonal triangle forming on the SP500 Daily Chart.

 

If this observation is correct, then the SP500 needs one more rally after the 3950.43 high for it to be complete. A drop now below 3694.12 would eliminate this pattern from consideration and confirm that all of wave -iii- is complete at the 3950.43 high.

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2921usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 89.68, but after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 90.98, closing at 90.88.

 

Wave -iii- is now complete at the 89.17 low and we are rallying in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

Wave -iv- should take a month or so to develop.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2821cdnx.png

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher this past reaching ahigh of 1113.64. After that high was made we moved sharply lower reaching a low of 988.56, closing at 1018.50~

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of .iii.. Within wave -i- we have now completed wave (iii) of -i-of .iii. at the 1113.64 high and we are now dropping in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1010.47;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 946.64.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone, plus we also have a 3 wave corrective pattern on the Daily CDNX Chart.

 

Although the time for this corrective pattern to develop has been short, from and Ewaves point of view we cannot rule the that all of wave (iv) is now complete at the 988.56 low and that we have started to rally higher again in wave (v) of -i- of .iii..

 

Wave (iv) could also become more complex and even a bullish triangle. also.                            

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ and a small portfolio of CDNX juniors, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2821gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply lower this past week reaching allow of 30.90, closing at 31.13.

 

With Friday’s low of 30.90, we have now reached our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave *ii* which is :

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

The 30.90 low is also a major support line, which we believe will hold.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of a major rally in wave *iii*.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions at 31.50.

 

Bitcoin: 

 

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewfeb2821bit.png  

 

Long Term Update:

 

We have started to track Bitcoin, at least on a weekly basis to start.

 

Bitcoin started trading in 2014 and as you can see in our Bitcoin Weekly Chart that it has risen sharply form that inception date.

 

In the longer term Bitcoin appears to rising in an incomplete impulse fashion as we are getting close to finishing an impulsive sequence with wave (3) of 1 or A ending at the 58349 high. We are now falling in wave (4) which has a current low of 43665, which is just within our retracement level for all of wave (4) which is:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 45327;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 37271.

 

We therefore need to be on guard o the completion of all of wave (4) at the current low, however, we think more time will be needed for the wave (4) correction to develop. It will likely take a more or so for all of wave (4) to develop, and it might even become a bullish triangle formation. After wave (4) ends we expect another rally above the 58349 high in wave (5) to complete either all of wave 1 of a wave B.