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NOV 2 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew

CDNX: 

CDNX Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ewnov222cdnx.png

Short Term Update:

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 601.39, closing at 598.24!

Within wave (i) of C, all of wave -i- ended at 1113.64 and we are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- is now complete at the 565.16 low. If that is the case, then we are now rallying in wave -iii- which has an initial projected endpoint of:

-iii- = 1.618-i- =1832.04.

Within wave -iii-, we appear to have completed $i$ of (i), at 625.99 and all still falling in wave $ii$ that has a last retracement level of:

78.6% = 578.18.

We have now slightly exceeded our 78.6% retracement level, so for our current analysis to remain valid we must turn up now in wave $iii$. We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave $iii$, when we believe that all of wave $ii$ is complete.

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

GDX & Gold Stocks:

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ewnov222gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ewov222gdxd.png

Short Term Update:

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 25.06, closing at 24.70!

Our long-term count for the GDX now suggests that wave B has become a bullish triangle. In this count all of wave A ended at the 53.07 high in 2008 and we are working on the assumption that all of wave c of triangle B is complete at the 21.52 low.

If that is the case, then we should now be rallying in wave d. Wave d must consist of at least one 3 wave pattern and can have up to three such patterns. Within wave d we are likely working on wave (a) and within wave (a) we look to have completed wave *i* at 26.11 and we are now falling in wave *ii*, which has a last retracement level of:

78.6% = 22.50.

We have now reached our 78.6% retracement level, so if our current analysis is to remain valid, we need to continue to move higher in the start of another rally in wave *iii*. Next major resistance is the 25.71/26.11 levels.

We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave *iii*, after we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

It is too early to determine which type of 3 wave rally wave d will consist of, but it cannot trade above our wave b high of 45.78.

Updates to our gold and gold indices charts have begun with the HUI and XAU updates now complete as noted below. We are waiting to resolve some data point errors with our Data Provider on the Gold Stock Charts before they are updated.

Kinross (Updated August 01st, 2022):

Wave A ended at 30.41 in 1996, and since that high was made, we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

a = 1.07;

b = 26.14;

c = 1.31;

d = 10.24;

e = 3.00.

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. Our initial projection for the end of wave C is:

C = 1.618A = 49.31.

We expect the move higher in wave -i- of (i) of i of C now.

ABX (Updated August 01st, 2022):  

Wave A ended at 47.34 in 2008, and wave B at the 5.69 low in 2015. We are rallying in wave C. Within wave C, we completed wave i at 22.71 and wave ii at 9.38. Within wave iii, we are subdividing with wave (i) ending at 31.01 and likely all of wave (ii) at the 14.80 low. Our last retracement level for all of wave (ii) is:

78.6% = 14.01.

If all of wave (ii) has ended at the 14.80 low, our initial projections for the end of wave (iii) and iii are:

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 49.80;

iii = 1.618i = 53.94.

We now expect higher prices for ABX in the months ahead, as wave (iii) rally gets going.

HUI (Updated September 26th, 2022):

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 519.61 in 2008, and it looks like all of wave B has become a bullish triangle with the following endpoints:

(a) = 99.19;

(b) = 373.85;

(c) =172.86, if complete. We cannot fall below the wave (a) low of (iii):

(d) rally is next after wave (c) ends;

(e) drop after wave (d) ends to complete all of the wave B bullish triangle.

After wave B ends, we expect a sharp thrust higher in C to all time new highs for this market.

XAU (Updated September 26th, 2022):

Wave B ended at the 38.37 low in 2016 and we are now rallying in a long-term wave C. Within wave C , we completed wave i at 101.76 and all of a complex wave ii at 60.59. We are now rallying in wave iii, which that following projected endpoint:

iii = 4.236i = 329.11.

Within wave iii, we believe that wave (i) at 167.09 and we are now still falling in wave -ii- which has a last retracement level of:

78.6% = 85.06.

We also have another projected endpoint for wave -c- of (ii) as:

-c- = 1.618-a- = 89.85.

We are nearing our 78.6% retracement level and our wave -c- projected endpoint, so for our current analysis to remain valid we need to turn up very soon in wave (iii). We will provide an updated wave (iii) project endpoint when we believe all of wave (ii) is completed.

We expect higher prices in the months ahead as we start to rally higher in wave (iii).

SSR Mining (Updated August 01st, 2022):

Wave A ended at 45.58 in 2007, and since that high was made, we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

a = 5.28;

b = 33.11;

c = 17.05;

d = 30.89;

e = 21.71.

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. Our initial projection for the end of wave C is:

C = 1.618A = 95.46.

We expect sharply higher prices as we start to rally higher in the initial stages of wave C.

Newmont Mining: (Added and updated August 01st , 2022):

Newmont Mining is following a rather complex Ewave pattern, as we are currently working on a double 3 wave pattern, likely all within a larger multi-decade wave (A). Within the wave (A), we completed our first 3 ABC pattern in 1996 at 42.37, which was followed by a wave X drop to 9.46. After wave X ended, we are now rallying in our second ABC pattern and within wave, we completed wave 1 at 85.67 in 2022. We are now dropping in a wave 2 od C correction that ahs the following retracement levels:

50% = 49.53;

61.8% = 41.00.

We have now entered our retracement zone, but we do not think that all of wave 2 is complete at the 44.00 low, so we could see additional weakness to the 41.00 level, and our red uptrend line (see Monthly NEM Chart), before all of wave 2 ends.

After wave 2 ends we expect a very large rally in wave 3.              

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

Gold: 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ewnov222gold.png

Short Term Update:

Gold was marginally higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 1657.10. After that high was made we moved lower reaching 1642.20.

In the overnight session we have moved higher again reaching a high of 1658.80!

We are using the symbol XAU/USD for our current gold pricing analysis.

Wave *c* of our very large wave .iv. bullish triangle is NOT complete at the 1614.90 low, and we have adjusted our count to show that we are still falling in an ending diagonal triangle wave ^c^ formation.

Within wave ^c^ we are falling in wave $v$ which has a minimum target of 1614.90. Wave *c* cannot drop below the wave *a* low of 1450.90 for our current bullish triangle formation to remain valid.

In the bigger picture, after wave *c* ends we expect a wave *d* rally that cannot trade above our wave *b* high of 2089.20, and then after wave *d* ends we expect another drop in wave *e*, which cannot trade below the final wave *c* low. We have shown this graphically on our Daily Gold Chart.

There is an outside chance that all our wave ^c^ ending diagonal triangle ended at the 1617.30 low, and this will be our alternate count.

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as stops!                                                             

Silver:

Daily Silver Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ewnov222si.png

Short Term Update:

Silver was marginally higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 20.04. After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 19.47. In the overnight session we have moved higher again reaching a high of 19.84!

Wave ii is still underway as shown on our Daily Sliver Chart. We have adjusted our internal count within wave ii to suggest that the drop from the wave i high of 29.91 is a simple 3 wave pattern.

We are still falling in an ending diagonal triangle wave (c) and within wave (c), we are still falling in wave -v-. Our minimum target for wave -v- is the wave -iii- low of 17.40.

Legs of diagonal triangles are like regular triangles and must consist of at least one 3 wave pattern. Within wave -v-, we completed wave $a$ at 18.01 and are now rallying in wave $b$, which maybe complete at the 20.04 high.

After wave $b$ ends we expect one more drop in wave $c$ to complete all of wave -v-, (c) and ii. Our last retracement level for all of wave ii is:

78.6% = 15.55.

Trading Recommendation: Long with puts as stops.

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!     

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ewnov222bond.png

Short Term Update:

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 4.071%.

In the overnight session we have moved sideways and are currently trading at the 4.038% level!

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4.333% high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave (iv).

We expect wave (iv) to retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally and we will provide those retracement levels in the next day or so. We have now reached our initial projected endpoint for all of wave (iii), which is:

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4.181%.

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 4.333% to 3.905% is a completed impulsive sequence, so the current rally is a correction of that drop. After this corrective rally ends, we expect this market to drop again below the 3.905% low.

We will provide our retracement levels for wave (iv) in the next day or so.

Trading Recommendation: Flat.                                                                        

Active Positions: Flat!

S&P500: 

Daily SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ewnov222spd.png

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ewnov222sp120.png

Short Term Update:

The SP500 was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 3911.79, but after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 3843.80.

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 4 points.

Wave v is complete at the 4748.87 high as a failure high. We have now started a multi-decade correction. We will assume that the first drop in this correction will be five (5) waves and so far, wave (i) ended at the 4222.62 and all of wave (ii) at the 4637.30 high.

We are now falling in wave (iii), that appears to be subdividing with wave -i- of (iii) ending at 3858.87 and all of wave -ii- at the 4325.28 high. We are now falling in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3065.78.

On the Intraday Chart we have revised our count to suggest that within wave -iii-, only wave .i. ended at the low. We are therefore now rallying in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

50% = 3911.43;

61.8% = 4006.81.

We have now reached our 50% retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of another major drop in wave .iii. We also have another projection for the end of wave $c$ of .ii. at:

$c$ = 1.618$a$ = 3936.32.

We did have a small key daily reversal in yesterday’s trading session that may be the signal that all of wave .ii. ended at the 3911.79 high.

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 3259.58.

We have now decided to short this market.

Trading Recommendation: Going Short now with calls as stops.                                                                  

Active Positions: Shorting now, with calls as stops!  

USDX:

Daily USDX Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ewnov222usd.png

Short Term Update:

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 111.66. After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 111.02!  

Since the wave A low was made in 1992 at 80.78, we have been trading sideways in a large incomplete wave B triangle. We are currently working on the last stages of wave ^c^ of the bearish triangle formation.

Should wave ^c^ continue higher it cannot trade above the wave ^a^ high of 121.21. After wave ^c^ ends we expect a multi-year drop in wave ^d^, that cannot trade below the wave ^b^ low of 71.46.

Wave ^c^ consists of a triple 3 wave pattern with our current projection for the end the third wave c being:

c = 1.618a = 114.54.  

We now believe that all of wave ^c^ is complete at the 114.75 high and we are now falling in wave ^d^. We are now falling in wave $i$ of -i- of a of ^d^.                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short at 112.90, risking to 113.85!

Active Positions: Short at 112.90, risking 113.85!

Crude Oil and Suncor:

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ewnov222oil.png

Short Term Update:

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 89.75!

We are now rallying in wave iii, and within wave iii, wave (i) ended at 130.50, and we are now working on assumption that all of wave (ii) has ended at the 76.25 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 186.39.

We are now rallying in wave $i$ of (iii), and within wave $i$ it looks like wave !i! ended at 93.64 and we are now falling in wave !ii!, which has a last retracement level of:

78.6% = 79.97.       

Wave !ii! looks to be complete at the 81.30 low. We will provide our initial projected endpoint for wave !iii!, in the next day or so.

Our initial projection for the completion of wave iii is:

iii = 1.618i = 176.47.

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 56.38.

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing and so is wave -iii-, as it looks like wave .ii. is still underway, with our last retracement level being:

78.6% = 26.61.

We have now reached our 78.6% retracement level so for our current analysis to remain valid we need to move higher in wave .iii. very soon.

We are also looking at the possibly that all wave -i- ended at the 42.72 high and that the current sell-off is wave -ii-.

We believe that we have some data errors on our current Weekly Chart that we are trying to resolve with our Data Provider.

Our updated projection for the completion of all of wave iii is:

iii = 4.236i = 62.01.

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put lnbas a stop. Long Suncor.

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

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