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November 18, 2017



Weekly Gold Chart:


Longer Term Update:


Gold was higher this week as we reached a high of 1297.10.


Our current preferred long term count for gold is that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, with wave -ii- ending at the 1124.30 low, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart. Within wave -iii-, we have completed wave *i* at the 1362.40 high and we are now correcting in wave *ii*, with appears to now be forming into a 3 wave pattern.


The minimum requirements for wave *ii* to be completed will be a drop to at least the 1262.80 low, after which, if our current count is correct, we should expect a sharp rally in wave *iii* to be the next big event in this market.


We eliminated our short term count this week, and now believe that we are rallying in wave ^b^ of *ii*, which we have shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Wave ^b^ is expected to end between 1313.00 and 1324.00.


Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii-, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart, are:





We are concerned with the way gold is trading, however, so we watching a possible bearish alternate counts where wave -ii- is not complete at the 1124.30 low and that it is becoming a complex flat type correction. If this count turns out to be correct, then gold is now heading back to the wave .a. low of 1124.30 in a dropping wave .c., that started at the wave .b. high of 1362.40.


We will need to give this market need more time to determine if gold is following this route, although many gold stocks and the HUI, XAU and the GDX are telling us that this is likely where gold is heading.


With the USDX looking to still have more rally potential, we are cautious on the bullish case for gold..


Active Positions: Flat.



Weekly Silver Chart:


Longer Term Update:


Silver was higher this week reaching a high of 17.36, and all of our current options remain valid.


In our preferred count, wave ii ended at the 14.34 spike low and we are now moving higher in wave iii. Within wave iii it looks like wave .i. ended at the 18.29 high and we are now falling in wave .ii., which could be complete at the 16.35 low.


The 16.35 low is within our 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave .i. rally. If all of wave .ii. is now complete at the 16.35 low, then we are now going to rally sharply higher in wave .iii..  


Like gold, we are concerned about the way silver is trading, if it is truly a bull market. We now need to consider the possibility that wave ii did not end at the 14.34 low and is still underway. If that is the case we should now be heading lower in a multi-month 3 wave pattern, that will challenge the 14.34 low.


In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;


1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6% of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.


Active Positions: Flat.




Longer Term Update:


Weekly Crude Chart:


Crude was lower this week reaching a low of 54.81. It looks like wave $iii$ ended at the 57.92 high and possibility all of wave $iv$ at the 54.81 low. If that is the case, then we should now expect wave $v$ to be underway which should see crude rally at least back to the 57.92 high before all of this corrective wave *b* pattern ends.


We are a bit skeptical that wave $iv$ is complete at the 54.81 low, as it was pretty short in time, although it did reach our retracement levels.


We updated our corrective wave .ii. pattern this week, as follows:


*a* = 39.19;


^a^ = 55.24;

^b^ triangle = 47.00:


$i$ = 52.86;

$ii$ = 49.10;

$iii$ = 57.92;

$iv$ = 54.81, if complete;

$v$ rally, when wave $iv$ ends.


We do have a ^c^ = ^a^ projection of 63.05.


The most important takeaway from the current crude chart is that:


“The rally from the wave *a* low of 39.19 is NOT impulsive, so we do not think that crude is going to rally in a new bull market, until we revisit the 39.19 low one more time.”


In the very long term, we are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low.


If this assumption is correct, then the big picture is that crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.




Weekly Suncor Chart:


Suncor was lower this past week, as we had a key reversal lower, on the week chart. This might indicate that all of wave .b. is now complete and once wave .b. ends we expect one more drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -ii-.


Our current count is:


.a. = 27.73;

.b. = 36.71, if complete;

.c. drop are wave .b. ends.


Active Positions: Flat in crude, and plan to go long in Suncor at 26.00!




Longer Term Update:


The S&P was slightly lower this week, as we are now working on the assumption that all of wave B is complete at the 2597.02 low. As we and likely many others have been saying for quite some time this market is very overvalued and overstretched by almost every technical indicator. We are now waiting for confirmation that a major top has been made at the 2597.02 high.


Active Positions: Very Short, with calls at various levels, as stops.




Longer Term Update:


The USDX was lower this week, reaching a low of 93.31. It could be possible that all of wave ^iv^ is now complete at the 95.07 high, but we remain a bit skeptical. We still have other options for the pattern associated with wave ^iv^ which we cannot rule out, with one that is shown on the daily USDX Chart.


Wave ii ended at the 103.81 high and we are now falling in a multi-year wave iii drop. Within wave iii we completed wave ^iii^ at 91.22 and are still rallying in a wave ^iv^ correction, which continue next week.


Active Positions: Flat.




Longer Term Update:


NG was marginally lower this week reaching a low of 3.04, as we continue to work on what we believe is a very large wave (iv) triangle, that still has a long wave to go before it is complete. The current count within this bearish triangle is as follows:


-a- = 3.90;

-b- = 2.64;


^a^ = 3.43;

^b^ triangle = 2.85;

^c^ is now underway with a minimum target of the wave ^a^ high of 3.43, but we do have a ^c^=^a^ projection of 3.64.


Since completing wave A at 15.74 in 2005, NG is dropping in a double 3 wave pattern as shown on the Monthly NG Chart. We are now in wave (v) of our second wave c, within that double 3 wave pattern. Our minimum target for the end of the second wave c is 1.61.


Upon completion of all of wave B, we expect a very sharp multi-year rally in wave C that should see NG exceed the 15.74 high, that was made in 2005. Heading back to 1.61.


Active Positions: Flat!




Longer Term Update:


The GDX traded sideways to higher this week. We still see further losses in the week ahead as we continue to drop in wave -iii-, which has a projected target of 19.88.


In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low.


Within wave 3, we now think that (i) ended at 25.71 and that wave (ii) is likely still underway, as we are now heading back to the 20.99 low. Another much more bearish option is that we are heading back to the 18.58 low, in an incomplete wave 2.


Longer term, our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:





We also note that it might even be possible that wave 2 is not complete at the 18.68 low, also. For now this bearish outcomes will remain our alternate count.


Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!


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