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CAPTAIN EWAVE MORNING POST!

July 24, 2017

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ewjul2417gold.png

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=504591074&listNum=2

Short Term Update:

 

Gold was higher in the overnight session reaching a high of 1259.00, at the time that this Post was being written. On the Intraday Chart the rallies look impulsive and setbacks look corrective which supports higher prices ahead, however we appear to be getting close to finishing a small impulsive sequence that started at the 1204.00 low.

 

This impulsive sequence can extend, but we are again getting close to our red downtrend line, so a correction will likely ensure off that line.

 

Should we get a big up day through that line we should expect this small impulsive sequence to extend to the 1300.00 level.

 

Our sharp wave .iii. rally is now underway. We expect that extreme upside movements in gold to the upside will occur once we clearly break above our red downtrend on a weekly basis. Our initial projection for the end of wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1484.10.

 

We should also expect that wave .iii. will subdivide into a five wave impulsive pattern, which we are now working on wave *i* of .iii.

 

Our updated count for all of wave -iii- is:

 

.i. = 1297.40;

.ii.:

*a* = 1214.30;

*b* = 1298.80;

*c* = 1204.00, to complete all of wave .ii.;

.iii. rally is now underway.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low, and we are now rallying in an explosive wave -iii-. Within wave -iii-, wave .ii. is complete at the 1204.00 low. A sharp wave .iii. rally is now underway. We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart(07/15/22), to reflect the updated count.   

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii-, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart, are :

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long from $1080/$1100 price zone with 40 positions, with puts at 1250.00.

Short term gamblers: short aug gold at 1259. Stop 1259.50, target 1251!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ewjul2417si1.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply higher in the overnight session reaching a high of 16.57, at the time that this Post was being written. On the Intraday Chart the rallies look impulsive and the setbacks corrective, which is supportive of higher prices ahead, but like gold we do see an almost complete impulsive sequence of those same Intraday Chart.

 

A big correction could be close, unless the current impulsive sequence extends.

 

Our initial projections for wave -iii- are:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 26.57;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 34.13.

 

We are also expecting that wave -iii- will develop into a five wave impulsive sequence of which we are currently working on wave .i. of -iii-.

 

Our current count for all of wave 3 is:

 

.a. = 18.46;

.b. triangle = 19.77

.c. = 15.68;

.x.;

^a^ = 18.54;

^b^ = 16.83;

^c^ = 18.66, to complete all of wave .x.;

.a. = 16.06

.b. = 17.75

.c.= 14.34, to complete all of wave -ii-.

-iii- rally is now underway.

 

Long Term Update:

 

Wave -ii- ended at the 14.34 spike low and we are now moving higher in wave -iii-.

 

We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6% of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 14.50!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ewjul2417oil.png

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=9&dy=15&id=p89665032424&a=504605007&listNum=2

 

Crude was lower in the overnight session reaching a low of 45.47, at the time that this Post was being written.  

It now looks like all of wave $b$ of ^iii^ is complete at the 47.74 low and we have started wave $c$ of ^iii^ lower. We have shown the following projections for the end of wave $c$ and ^iii^ on our Daily Crude Chart:

 

$c$ =0.618$a$ = 41.59;

$c$ = $a$ = 37.79.

 

Crude should move sharply lower this week in wave $c$. This diagonal triangle, like most triangles can still expand and extend.

 

Our updated count for all of wave .ii. is as follows:

 

*a* = 39.19;

*b* = 54.94:

*c* diagonal triangle:

^i^ = 43.76;

^ii^ = 52.00;

^iii^:

$a$ = 42.05;

$b$ = 47.74, if complete;

$c$ could now be underway.

 

In the bigger picture, our retracement level for all of wave .ii. are:

 

50% = 38.86;

61.8% = 35.97.

 

Suncor:  Wave -ii- in Suncor now appears to have become a more complex corrective pattern. It looks to have become a double 3 wave pattern, as shown on the Suncor Weekly Chart. The updated corrective count for all of wave -ii- is:

 

First .a., .b., .c. = 29.16;

.x. = 32.48;

.a. = 28.00;

.b. = 30.90, if complete;

.c. drop once, second wave .b. ends to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

The expected retracements for the end of the second wave .c. and -ii-, remain unchanged as follows:

 

50% = 26.25;

61.8% = 24.47.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are short at 51.50, risking to 55.00. We are long Suncor, and we plan to add to Suncor at 26.00!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ewjul2417sp.png

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P Futures are unchanged, in the overnight session, at the time that this Post was being written. This market is now vulnerable to a significant drop now, and VIX is now approaching an all-time low.

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for this wave .v. thrust, and now need to be on guard for the start of a significant fall in the S&P. We are not sure what event will trigger the start of this drop, but from an Ewaves point of view, the significant drop is on the doorstep now.

 

Our current updated detailed count for all of wave -v- is:

 

.i. = 2370.35;

.ii. = 2338.95;

.iii.:

*i* = 2405.77

*ii* = 2352.77;

*iii* = 2440.23;

*iv* triangle = 2422.88;

*v* = 2453.82, to complete all of wave .iii.;

.iv. triangle = 2412.79;

.v. = 2477.82, if complete, to complete a significant top in the S&P, a shown on the Daily S&P Chart.

 

We will likely be adding to our short positions very soon.

                                                                                         

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (v) is nearing completion

 

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ewjul2417usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways in the overnight session, hovering around its current lows, at the time that this Post was being written. We still see lower prices ahead. 

 

Wave &v& and all of wave $iii$ are still underway, and we see no end to this drop. We have provided our next target for their completion at:

 

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 91.84.

 

Note support at the 91.88 level.

 

Our updated count for the start of iii is:

 

iii:

.i.:

*i* = 101.30;

*ii* = 102.96;

*iii*:

^i^ = 100.70;

^ii^ = 102.27;

^iii^:

$i$ = 98.67;

$ii$ = 101.27;

$iii$:

&i& = 98.57;

&ii& = 99.77;

&iii& = 97.28

&iv& = 97.16;

&v& is still underway, to complete all of wave $iii$.

$iv$ rally after wave $iii$ ends.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and it looks like all of wave ii ended at the 103.81 high. We are now falling in wave iii.

 

Active Trading Positions: Flat.

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ewjul2417ng.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was lower in the overnight session reaching a low of 2.910, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

It is now very unlikely that our current short term count is correct, as we have lots of overlapping waves within our expected wave $c$ rally. It could be that all of wave $c$ ended as a failure, but that is not our preferred analysis, as you know. It could be that wave $b$ is not compete and is becoming a triangle. We will give this market  couple more days to see if this situation become clearer.  

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

Heading back to 1.61.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are short, risking to 3.44!

 

GDX: 

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ewjul2417gdx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX should move higher with gold today. Wave (iii) higher is now underway with our initial projection for its completion at:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 32.53.

 

As with gold and silver we expect that wave (iii) in the GDX will subdivide into a 5 wave impulsive sequence.

 

We are currently in the early stages of wave -i- of (iii).  

 

Our updated count for all of our complex wave (ii) is

 

-a- = 21.14;

-b- triangle:

^a^ = 24.88;

^b^ = 20.89;

^c^ = 23.86;

^d^ = 21.80;

^e^ = 22.81, to complete all of our wave ^b^ triangle;;

-c- = 20.99, to complete all of wave -c- and (ii).

(iii) rally is now underway.

 

Long Term Update:

 

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low also.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture that we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:

 

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98

 

As with gold and silver this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions. 

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops.

 

Note: The Captain will be in Washington DC from July 23 to 29th. There will likely be limited Posts during that time.

 

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