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CAPTAIN EWAVE DAILY CHARTS UPDATE

November 14, 2017

Gold:

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ewnov1417gold.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Gold traded sideways in yesterday’s day session, but in the overnight session gold dropped to a low of 1270.60, before recovering to currently be trading at the 1275.00 level, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

We do NOT see an sign of a clear impulsive pattern from the 1263.80 low. It could be that or second option, where wave ^a^ of *ii* ended at 1262.80 and we are now rallying in wave ^b^, could become the correct count.

 

We will give this market another day or so to confirm that observation. We still cannot eliminate or modify any of our current options, so we need to still stick with our current thinking, preferred count but doubt that it is the correct count, and it is likely your second option will be moved to our preferred very soon.

 

We are reluctantly staying with our bullish option, as the preferred, but it now appears that all of wave *ii* did not end at the 1262.80 low and that it has become a clear 3 wave correction, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. If this count is correct, then gold should fall to at least the 1262.80 low in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave *ii*.

 

On the Intraday Chart wave ^c^, does have the features of an ending diagonal triangle, and we now need to move below the 1262.80 low to complete the pattern. Upon completion of wave *ii* we should then expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii*, to be the next big event in this market. Although we do not like to force our EWave analysis work using failed waves, it could be possible that all of wave ^c^ ended at the 1263.80 low.

 

The next option we need to consider is that wave ^a^ ended at the 1262.80 low, but we are working on a complex wave ^b^ rally, all within wave *ii*, as we have now added to our Daily Gold Chart. In this case wave $a$ ended at 1308.40, and wave $b$ at 1263.80. We are now rallying in wave $c$, which should rally to our 50 to 61.8% retracement level for all of wave ^b^.

 

The reason that we are including this option is that our current wave ^b^ failed to rally to at least the 50% retracement level of 1312.60. If this option is correct, then gold should start to rally soon back to the retracement levels that we have for all of wave ^b^. Upon completion of that wave ^b^, gold should then fall back to the wave ^a^ low of 1262.80 to complete all of wave ^c^ and *ii*. The retracement levels for all of wave ^b^ are:

 

50% = 1312.60;

61.8% = 1324.40

 

Our updated preferred count for wave *ii* is:

 

^a^ = 1262.80;

^b^ = 1308.40;

^c^ drop is now, to complete all of wave *ii*.

 

Our retracements for all of wave *ii* are::

 

50% = 1283.20;

61.8% = 1264.50.

 

We do have some concerns with our current preferred count, as if gold was really in a bull market it would not be dropping back below the 1295.00/1300.00 level. This may be suggesting our other bearish red alternate count is in play, where gold is still working on a complex wave -ii- correction where we are now dropping in wave .c. of -ii-.

 

In this case we should expect gold to drop back to the wave .a. low of 1124.30, before all of wave -ii- ends. We would expect this count to become valid if gold continues to drop below the 1262.40 low now.  We have shown this alternate count on our Daily Gold Chart also, and that count would look like:

 

*i* = 1262.80;

*ii* is still underway.

*iii* drop after wave *ii* ends.

 

Our updated bullish and current preferred count for all of wave -iii- is:

 

.i. = 1297.40;

.ii.:

*a* = 1214.30;

*b* = 1298.80;

*c* = 1204.00, to complete all of wave .ii.;

.iii.:

*i* = 1362.40;

*ii* is still underway;

*iii* rally after wave *ii* ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: No trade recommendation for today.

 

Active Positions: We are now flat.

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ewnov1417si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 17.06, but in the overnight session we traded lower to reach a low of 16.88, before recovering some of those losses to currently be trading at the 16.99 level, at the time that this Post as being written.

 

The same concerns for the bulls apply here due to current position and incomplete rally in the UDSX. We did reach our 50% retracement level of 16.37, which could suggest that all of wave .ii. may now be complete and that wave .iii. higher has now begun.

 

We have updated our count for silver, as shown on the Daily Silver Chart, to indicate that either wave .iii. is subdividing or wave .b. is subdividing. Like gold silver also has many options that remain valid.

 

Our current bullish count is shown on the Daily Silver Chart and it is suggesting that all of wave .i. of -iii- ended at 18.29 and we are now falling in wave .ii. Wave .ii. has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 16.37;

61.8% = 15.85.

 

Like gold, if silver was really in a bull market we would not likely be trading this way. As you can see on the Daily Silver Chart, our bearish count is suggesting that it could be possible that wave -ii- is NOT complete at the 14.34 low and if that is the case then we are now dropping in another 3 wave corrective pattern that forms part of a very complex wave -ii-. The bearish case would also be similar to gold. For the time being we will assume that all of wave -ii- ended at the 14.34 low, but we are getting very skeptical about that assumption.

 

Our initial projections for wave -iii- are, assuming wave -ii- ended at the 14.34 low:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 26.57;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 34.13.

 

Active Positions: We are now flat.

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ewnov1417oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude continued to trade sideways to lower in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session as we reached a low of 56.30, at the time that this Post was being written. On the Intraday Chart the trading from the 57.92 high to the current low of 56.30 looks corrective, which is suggesting that once this correction ends crude is going to go higher again, likely to complete all of wave $iii$.   

 

The rally from the wave *a* of .ii. low of 39.19 is not impulsive looking, so we are still expecting that we are correcting in a complex wave .ii. pattern. If this observation is correct then crude will be heading back to the 39.19 low again, once this current corrective pattern ends.

 

We need to be on guard for the end of wave $iii$ are we are approaching our projection point of 58.58. Upon completion of wave $iii$, we expect a wave $iv$ drop that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave $iii$ rally.

 

We have updated our current count as shown on the Daily crude Chart, as follows, for all of wave .ii.:

 

*a* = 39.19;

*b*:

^a^ = 55.24;

^b^ triangle = 47.00;

^c^:

$i$ = 52.86;

$ii$ = 49.10;

$iii$ = 57.92, if complete. We do have a $iii$=1.618$i$ projection of 58.58, so we could see one more push higher before all of wave $iii$ ends

$iv$ drop after wave $iii$ ends.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave .ii. remains as:

 

50% = 38.86

61.8% = 35.84.

 

Suncor: It appears that our wave .b. corrective rally is becoming more complex, and therefore not complete. Upon its completion we are still looking for a wave .c. drop to complete all of our wave -ii- correction.

 

Our updated count is now:

 

.a. = 27.73;

.b. = 36.71, if complete;

.c. drop after wave .b. ends.

 

Active Positions: We are now flat. We will go long Suncor at 26.00.

 

S&P:

 

Daily SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ewnov1417sp.png

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was higher in yesterday’s trading session, but in the overnight session the S&P Futures are down about 6 points, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

On the Intraday S&P Futures Chart we do see a 5 wave impulsive drop from the all-time high of 2594.50 to 2563.78.

 

Should we now drop below the 2563.78 low, we could see our first signs of a major top here. This market is in danger of a very big collapse, as many indicators are very stretched…. and getting more stretched as this market moves higher.        

 

We are now rallying in wave -v-, and we have now modified that internal wave structure to suggest that we are now working on the final leg higher, with the following detailed count:

 

*i* = 2454.77

*ii* = 2428.20

*iii* = 2578.29;

*iv* = 2544.00;

*v* = 2597.02, if complete, to complete -v-, (v),  c and B.

 

This is a now scary market for the bulls from an EWaves analysis point of view.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short at 2565.00, with a stop at the all-time high of 2597.50, or use an appropriate call…. Could also but put options outright.

 

Active Positions: Very Short with calls and various levels as stops.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ewnov1417usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session reaching a low of 93.98, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

We do not believe that wave $c$ is complete at the 95.06 level, so we should still expect higher prices in the USDX, in the days ahead.

 

We are now rallying in our expected wave ^iv^ correction. We have labelled a possible 3 wave correction on the Daily USDX Chart. There are still many other options and forms that this wave ^iv^ correction could still take beside what we have shown on the Daily USDX Chart. Our excepted retracement levels for all of wave ^iv^ are:

 

23.6% = 93.85;

38.2% = 95.44.

 

We also have a $c$ = $a$ projection of 95.47 also.

 

If our current analysis is correct, we should now be rallying in wave $c$ of -iv-. Note the red downtrend line on the Daily USDX Chart. That could be where all of wave -iv- ends as the trend line currently sits near our 38.2% retracement level. It will likely still take a number of weeks for wave -iv- to fully develop.

 

Our updated count for all of wave iii is:

 

iii:

.i.:

*i* = 101.30;

*ii* = 102.96;

*iii*:

^i^ = 100.70;

^ii^ = 102.27;

^iii^:

$i$ = 98.67;

$ii$ = 101.27;

$iii$:

&i& = 98.57;

&ii& = 99.77;

&iii& = 97.28

&iv& = 97.16;

&v& = 92.39; to complete all of wave $iii$.

$iv$:

&a& = 93.79

&b& = 92.89;

&c& = 94.06;

$v$ = 91.22, to complete all of wave ^iii^.

^iv^:

$a$ = 94.10;

$b$ = 92.59;

$c$ rally is now underway, to complete all of wave ^iv^.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

NG:

 

Daily NG Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ewnov1417ng.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 3.229, but in the overnight session NG fell to a low of 3.090, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

As you can see on the Daily NG Chart, we have now updated our current count to indicate that wave (iv) has become a very large bearish triangle with the following count:

 

-a- = 3.90;

-b- = 2.64;

-c-:

^a^ = 3.43;

^b^ triangle = 2.85;

^c^ rally is still underway, with a minimum target of 3.43, but we do have a projection of ^c^=^a^ = 3.64.

 

We expect higher prices in NG in the days ahead.

 

Active Positions: We are flat.

 

GDX:

 

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ewnov1417gdx1.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was marginally higher in yesterday’s trading session, as we still expect further downside if our current analysis is correct. Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 19.88

 

With gold, silver and USDX having so many major options we will need to be flexible in our current count for this market, but for now we will stay with our current count.

 

We have not sold and do not plan to sell any of our gold stock holding, and in fact will add on any weakness.

 

Our alternate count is even more bearish suggesting that wave 2 is still NOT complete, and in that case we are heading back to the 18.58 low, as shown on the daily GDX Chart, with our red denoted count.

 

Our updated count for all of our complex wave ii is:

 

(a):

-a- = 21.14;

-b- triangle:

^a^ = 24.88;

^b^ = 20.89;

^c^ = 23.86;

^d^ = 21.80;

^e^ = 22.81, to complete all of our wave -b- triangle;;

-c- = 20.99, to complete all of wave (a) of ii;

(b):

-a- = 23.06;

-b- = 22.03;

-c- = 25.58, to complete all of wave (b);

(c):

-i- = 23.04;

-ii- = 23.99;

-iii- drop is now underway.

 

It is looking very likely that gold stocks are starting to tell us that gold is going to heading back to the 1124.00 level to complete a complex and lengthy wave -ii- correction.

 

Based on that we should expect the following form our current gold stocks/indices:

 

Kinross heading to at least 2.90;

Barrick heading to at least 13.81. A further drop to 12.59 appears likely here. Note the 61.8% retracement is 12.59!

 

Newmont heading to at least 30.00;

 

SSR heading to at least 10.00. Our current low is 10.93, which is getting close to our minimum target 10.00. Expect further losses here, until we get to at least 10.00.

 

HUI heading to at least  160.00,

 

XAU heading to at least 71.63, but possibly down to 62.00.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

 

 

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