jan 11 end of day post!





Short Term Update:


In today’s overnight session gold made a high of 1108.30, and at the time the this Post was being written had fallen to a low of 1093.90!


For a time today we had thought that perhaps wave ^iv^ or wave !iv! was being a triangle. Earlier in today’s morning session we sent out an Intraday Post advising that gold had satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed triangle formation.


Unfortunately the market just keep falling, to its current 1093.90 low.


Now it is still possible that we are working on a triangle formation, and it will remain so unless we trade below the 1092.30.


The other point is that on the Intraday Chart the drop from 1108.30 to the current low of 1093.90 is full of overlapping waves, which indicates that we are still in a leg of the triangle formation or in an ending diagonal triangle.   


In either case we are still in a developing wave ^iv^ or wave !iv!.

We are still taking the conservative approach and assuming that wave ^iii^ ended at 1112.20 and that the current correction is wave ^iv^. Upon completion of wave ^iv^ we expect gold to move higher in wave ^v^ to complete all of at least wave *c* and .b.


Our retracement levels for wave ^iv^ are:


23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1099.70;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1091.50.


In case we are still in wave ^iii^, the next projection it’s end is:


^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 1148.10.


Projections of the end of wave *c* are:


*c* =1.618*a* = 1116.20.

*c* = 2.618*a* = 1159.10  


Our current count for wave .b. is as follows:


*a* = 1088.30;

*b* = 1046.80;


^i^ = 1081.40;

^ii^ = 1057.50;

^iii^ = 1112.20;

^iv^ triangle correction is underway.


Longer Term Update:


Our current retracement level for wave .b is:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1118.60;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1135.80.


Wave .b. is expected to consist of at least one *a*, *b*, *c* pattern.


There is an outside chance that all of wave 4 or wave ii of 3 is complete at the 1045.40 low also. A break above the upper red down trend line connecting waves -ii- and -iv-, as shown on the attached Daily Gold Chart would confirm that wave 4 or wave ii of 3 ended at 1045.40.


This idea is gaining some traction with us, as a few gold stocks are breaking major multi-year downtrend lines which would not support the idea that gold is going lower.


Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00!




Short Term Update:


Crude dropped back to the 32.10 low, as we suggested would happen in today’s Morning Post, and continued to drop further, reaching 30.89, at the time that this Post was being written.


This market is heavily oversold and due for a rally of biblical proportions!


We expect the end of wave b of B is very near and its end will announced by a rally of 10 to 15{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} in crude in a single day.


We need to see a powerful impulsive wave sequence to develop from the 30.89 low. The final confirmation for the end of wave b will come when we break above the down trend line connecting 43.46 and 38.39.    


Long Term Update:


If our current analysis is correct, a major low in wave b of B is nearly at hand and crude is then starting a new run back to the $150 area!


Active Trading Positions: Long 15 positions, with 42.00 puts, as stops, plus long 5 positions with 37.00 puts, as stops!




Daily S&P:



and 120 Min S&P Chart:




Short Term Update:


The S&P was down again today, reaching a low of 1901.10. This market is very oversold and as a minimum is due for at least a large countertrend rally.


Based on our current thinking we think we are getting very close to the end of our wave (iv) triangle and have decided to go long.


The risk is now set, as we cannot trade below the wave (c) low of 1867.01, as shown on the attached Daily S&P Chart. If we do trade below that low then our current triangle formation will be eliminated!


As you can see on the attached 120 Min S&P Chart, it looks like wave -e- has become a double .a., .b., .c. formation, with most or all of our second wave .c. likely complete or nearly complete at the current low of 1901.10.


If this triangle analysis is correct then the S&P is about to rally in wave (v), which has a minimum target of 2134.72.


We plan to be long for this entire wave (v) and will likely add on the corrective sell-offs!


Long Term Update:


A large wave (iv) bullish triangle is nearing completion, and we are now long looking to capture all or most of wave (v).


Active Trading Positions: Long 5 positions, with 1900 puts as stops!




Short Term Update:


The USDX continued to rally, in a choppy pattern on its Intraday Chart to 98.96, at the time that this Post was being written.


The 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement of the drop from 99.26 to 98.14 is 99.02.

Until we exceed that high we are still going with the assumption that the rally from 98.14 to the current high is all part of a subdividing wave !iii! of *c* of .iv.


Within wave *c* we have the following count:


!i! = 98.24;

!ii! = 99.26;

!iii! drop is now.


We also lowered our stop to 99.30.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our updated current count for wave .iv. is:


*a* = 97.59;

*b* = 99.73;

*c* should now be underway, with a target of at least the 97.59 wave *a* low.


Our current count for all of wave -v- is:


.i. = 96.64;

.ii. = 93.83;

.iii. = 100.58;

.iv. is still underway;

.v. rally to go to at least the 100.71, wave -iii- high.


We want to bring attention to a couple of alternate counts. On the attached Weekly USDX Chart, we have another count for wave -iv-, that suggests it did not end at 92.52, and that we are now falling in wave .c. of -iv-. In this case the minimum target for wave .c. is the wave .a. low of 92.52. 


The other much more bearish count is shown on the attached Weekly USDX(Alternate) Chart. In this our second (a), (b), (c) pattern from the wave i low of 71.33, ended at 100.72 and we are now falling in another 3 wave pattern. Within this 3 wave pattern we are working on wave -c-, with projections of 88.35 and 80.79.  


All of our alternate counts will become valid if we drop below the 96.64 high.


Active Trading Positions: Short 5 positions at 99.45, risking to 99.30!




See the attached Daily NG Chart.




Short Term Update:


Wave -a- is almost certainly now complete at the 2.494 high and we have started wave -b- lower.


In today’s day session we reached 2.365, at the time that this Post was being written. Since we are in a wave -b- we should expect that it will consist of at least one *a*, *b*, *c*, pattern but could become more complete have up to three such patterns., mixed in with some triangles also.


It is a bit too early to try and determine what type of internal wave structure that wave -b- will consist of, so we will give this market another day or so to give us more clues. Retracement levels for the end of wave -b- are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.089;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.993


We plan to go long 5 positions at 2.05, to try and capture the upcoming wave -c- rally.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv):


38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.91;

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.29.


For the time being we will assume that wave (iv) is a simple -a-, -b-, -c- pattern, and within that count we have :


-a- = 2.494, if complete;

-b- drop has begun;

-c- rally to at least the wave -a- high, but more likely to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}/50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone shown above.


Active Trading Positions: Plan to buy 5 at 2.05, risking to 1.69!


HUI/GDX and Selected Gold Stocks:


See the attached 120 Min GDX, Daily CRJ, 120 Min ABX Charts.




Short Term Update:


As you can see on the attached 120 Min GDX Chart we reached a low today of 13.82.


This low is pretty much the 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of the wave ^i^ rally, so we do not want to drop below this level, otherwise something else might be going on relative to this market, than we are currently assuming.


Upon completion of wave ^ii^ we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^ of *iii*, as the next big event.  


Looking at our current selected gold stocks:




CRJ:  No change as all or most of wave ^iv^ is complete at the 0.85 low. Upon completion of wave ^iv^  we should be moving higher in wave ^v^ to above the 0.95 high to complete wave *iii* of -v-, as shown on the attached Daily CRJ Chart.




ABX: ABX dropped to 7.95, which is greater than a 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement of the rally from 7.29 to 8.83. For the time being we are labelling this low as wave *iv*, but it could be possible that something much more bullish is happening.



Kinross: It looks like Kinross just completed its wave (ii), reaching  low of 1.68. We will need to update the internal wave count of wave (ii) and post in tomorrow’s Morning Post.


Long Term Update:


It looks like wave B ended at 12.62, and we have started wave C higher. Within the initial stages of wave C, we have the following count:


-i- = 17.04;

-ii- = 12.92;


.i. = 13.95;

.ii. = 13.19;


*i* = 14.29;

*ii* = 13.57;


^i^ = 1501;

^ii^ = 14.26, if complete;

^iii^ higher is next.


We need to see a break of 15.61, to confirm our current count for this market....wave B ending at 12.62.


We need to watch for major breakouts in both ABX and Kinross of their long down trend lines. This would be a very significant event.


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!