jan 11 morning post!





Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

Short Term Update:


Gold continued to slowly move higher in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session reaching a high of 1191.20, at the time that this Post was being written.


Currently on the Intraday Chart the rallies in gold look impulsive and the setbacks corrective which suggest higher prices are still ahead. So far the first impulsive sequence STILL does NOT look complete at the 1191.20 high, so we are expecting gold will continue to move higher over the next couple of days!

As you can see on the Daily Gold Chart we have shown graphically what the current rally in gold looks like as we are still just working on wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.  


Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is :





Longer Term Update:


Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low. We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart showing our projections for the end of wave -iii-.  


Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00.




Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching 16.96. In the overnight session silver was a bit lower reaching 16.74, at the time that this Post was being written.


Like gold we should now expect silver to be rallying in a very sharp rally in wave -iii-.  Also like gold we should still be rallying in wave *i* of .i. of -iii-. We also broke higher through our smaller bullish triangle yesterday, and reached the 16.96 high. We still expect higher prices, in the next couple of days.


Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is:





Like gold wave -iii- is silver will consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence, but we have not shown it on the Silver Chart as it will take the same form as we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart.


Long Term Update:


We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;


1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.


Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67




Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


Crude continued to fall in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 50.93. In the overnight session crude was a bit higher reaching 51.44, at the time that this Post was being written. In yesterday’s Morning Post we said this: “On the Intraday Chart the small rally from 51.77 to 52.37 looks corrective, which suggests that crude is still going lower.” Crude did reach 50.93. Expect lower prices.


As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete. We suspect that wave $b$ is now complete at the 55.24 high and we are now falling in our expected wave $c$ drop.


It is looking like wave $c$ is going to become a 5 wave impulsive sequence, which we have added to our labelling below. The current rally is a correction of the wave !i! drop. Wave !ii! is complete at the 54.30 high. This final wave $c$ drop should complete all of wave ^ii^.


Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.


Our update count for all of wave .iii. is now:


*i* = 49.36;


^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;


^i^ = 54.51;


$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ = 55.24;


!i! = 52.17;

!ii! = 54.30;

!iii! drop is now underway;

!iv! rally after wave !iii! ends.

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.


Some other projections:


.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83;


Suncor: Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.


Long Term Update:


We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27. We have attached our updated our Weekly Crude Chart.


Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80.




Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2

Short Term Update:


The S&P was basically unchanged in yesterday’s day session and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are down about 3 points, at the time that this Post was being written.


The S&P is now within a whisper of our projected end of for all of wave -iii- which is 2285.92, so we need to be on guard for end of the -iii- and the start of significant drop in wave -iv-.


This stock market appears to have many similarities to the 1987 top, and we know how that rally ended!


The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.


Long Term Update:


Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2282.10 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.


Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops.




Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


The USDX dropped to a low of 101.49 in yesterday’s day session and then moved higher. That move higher continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 102.54, at the time that this Post was being written.    


On the Intraday Chart we can see a 5 wave impulsive drop from 103.81 to 101.30, so we are now expect a corrective rally for that drop. We have labeled the initial drop to 101.30 as wave *i* and the current rally as wave *ii*. Within our wave *ii* rally we can now see a 3 wave pattern from 101.30 to the current high of 102.54.


We have also basically reached our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave *ii*. If our current analysis is correct then we should expect a big drop in the USDX to begin very soon…. in wave *iii*.


Retracement levels for wave *ii* are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 102.56;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 102.85.


Since our current high for this corrective rally is 102.49, we expect some further upside before all of wave *ii* ends and another sharp drop in wave *iii* begins.


We expect that the USDX will now move sharply lower in 2017, within a multi-year wave iii drop.


Our current count for wave (c) and the start of iii is:


-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;


*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c ) and all of wave ii.


*i* = 101.30;

*ii* = 102.54, if complete, which should end with our retracement levels identified above.

*iii* drop is next after wave *ii* ends.


Long Term Trading Update:


We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and it looks like all of wave ii ended at the 103.81 high.


Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.85.




Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 


Short Term Update:


NG was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 3.352, at the time that this Post was being written.


As you can see on the Daily NG Chart, we have a clear five wave impulsive rally from 1.61 to 3.37, which is then followed by a 3 wave correction that ended at the 2.55 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has much higher to go. We have an initial projection for the end of wave (iii) at 5.40.


The wave -ii- correction in NG looks to be complete at the 3.099 low, so we should now be starting a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide projections for the end of wave -iii- in the next day or so.


Our current count for all of wave C is:





-i- = 3.777, if complete;


*a* = 3.243;

*b* = 3.901;

*c*= 3.175, if complete, to complete all of wave -ii-.


Long Term Trading Update:


It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.


Active Trading Positions: We are long, risking to 2.54.




GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792


Short Term Update:


The GDX was quiet in yesterday’s day session, but we still expect higher prices in the days ahead. We will start labelling the internal wave structure of wave 3 after our first impulsive sequence ends.


The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture that we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:





As with gold and silver this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions.  


Long Term Update:


In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low also.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops.