jan 11 morning post!

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1119gold.png

Short Term Update:

 

Gold has lower in yesterday’s day session as we reached a low of 1286.70, but in the overnight session we have moved higher again to reach a high of 1295.70!

   

Within wave .iii. we continue to work on our first impulsive sequence, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Within that first impulsive sequence, we have taken a very bullish approach with our count as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. We are now working on the assumption that only wave ?iii? ended at the 1300.40 high and that we are now correcting in wave ?iv?. If that is the case our retracement levels for wave ?iv? are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1279.20;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1266.10

 

On the Intraday Chart it is looking like wave ?iv? could become a bullish triangle. Once wave ?iv? ends we expect another push higher in wave ?v? to complete all of !iii!. Our next projected target for the end of wave ?v? and !iii! is:

 

!iii! = 2.168!i! = 1358.40.

 

We have taken this very bullish approach as we see that the USDX is starting to accelerate lower now. 

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1447.20.

 

We do have higher projections. Of course, wave .iii. will subdivide into a 5 wave impulsive sequence in its journey higher.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1119si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session as we reached a low of 15.59, but like gold we rallied in the overnight session to reach a high of 15.78.

 

We have again updated our Daily Silver Chart to show the first count within wave .i.. Like gold we have adopted our very bullish count that is suggesting that wave ^iii^ of .i. is still underway. Our next projected target for its completion is :

 

^iii^ = 4.25^i^ = 16.94.

 

After this current consolidation within wave ^iii^ ends our next challenge will be resistance at the 16.05/16.10 level, which expect will be breached.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1119oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session and we have reached high of 53.31 before slipping back.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (a) is now complete at the 42.21 low and that our expected wave (b) rally is now underway. Our retracement level for wave (b) are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 59.41;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 63.52.

 

In the short term we have now shown a possible 3 wave pattern within wave (b), and if this pattern is what crude is doing, then we are still rallying in wave *a* of (b). Upon completion of wave *a* we expect a wave *b* setback that will then be followed by another ally in wave *c* to complete all of wave (b).

 

Of course wave (b) could become much more complex than we are currently suggesting also. Since we are rallying in a wave (b), we should expect this rally to be choppy and full of an overlapping wave structure.

 

Suncor: Suncor has confirmed that all of wave (i) is complete at the 25.81 low and that we now rallying wave (ii). We should expect a wave (ii) rally that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 34.04;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.98.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long with put at 57.00 as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long with put at 57.00 as a stop.                                    

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1119bond.png

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield marginally higher in yesterday’s day session and we are currently marginally lower in the overnight session.     

 

We continue fall in wave (ii). We expect wave (ii) to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.641{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.498{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

We have shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart our first suggested count for the internal wave structure of wave (ii). It looks like wave $iii$ of *a* ended at the 2.554{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. If wave *iii* is now complete, then we should now be rallying in a small wave $iv$ corrective rally that has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.710;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.807.

 

We have already reached our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. So we need to be guard for the completion of wave $iv$ and that start of another drop with wave $v$ of *a*, that will complete all of wave *a*.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat now.

 

Active Positions: Flat now.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1119spd.png

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1119sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was marginally higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 2597.82. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 9 points.

 

We are continue to drop in sharply in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2256.01.

 

However within wave (iii), we have now revised our internal wave structure as shown on the Daily SP500 and 120 Min SP500 Charts. Within wave (iii), we are now subdividing with wave .i. ending at 2346.58 and all or most of wave .ii. at the 2595.32 high. Our retracement level for all of wave .ii. are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2573.38;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2626.90.

 

We have now entered our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave .ii. now and that start of a very sharp drop in wave .iii. of (iii). We also have another projection for end of wave .ii. at:

 

*c* = *a* = 2617.65.

 

Trading Recommendation: Stay short with a call option as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Very Short with an updated call as a stop.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan11usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX has higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 95.21, but in the overnight session we have dropped to reach a low of 94.79.  

 

We still believe that wave (iii) lower is now underway, with our first projection for its completion being:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 72.37

 

Expect lower prices ahead.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 97.75.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 97.75.

 

NatGas: 

 

Daily NG Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1119ng.png

Short Term Update:

 

NG continued to move sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 3.052 level.

 

The big drop in NG has eliminated our current short term count, and at the moment we do not have anything new to offer, although we could we working on a wave b bearish triangle. More details coming.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1119gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1119gdxd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX has lower in yesterday’s trading session as we reached a low of 20.95. We have now completed the minimum requirements for our possible wave *iv* triangle formation. A wave *v* thrust should be just around the corner, assuming that our current triangle does not decide to expand and extend.

 

We are now rallying in a subdividing wave -iii-. We have updated our count within wave -iii- to suggest that we are about to complete a very large wave *iv* of -iii- bullish triangle, as shown on the Daily GDX and 60 Min GDX Charts. Once wave *iv* ends, which appears IMMINENT, we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave *v* that should send us to at least our wave -iii- projected target of 23.49.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 23.49.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95.

 

We have the following counts, for the following:

 

Kinross: Has now completed its minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii), at the 2.38 low. Wave  (iii) rally is now underway.

 

Barrick:  We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii) at the 9.53 low. Wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

HUI: We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low. Wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

XAU: We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave 2 at the 60.59 low. Wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!