JAN 11 morning post!

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan1122cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 883.62, closing at 898.45!

 

We have now updated our current count to suggest that all of wave -ii- of .iii. is still underway, with the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

Within wave -ii- we now appear to working on our second 3 wave corrective pattern. Our first 3 wave pattern ended at 847.92, which was then followed by a wave (x) rally that ended at the 1025.77 high. We are now falling I our second 3 wave pattern and within that pattern all of wave (b) likely ended at the 948.27 high. If that is the case then we are now falling in our second wave (c), which has a minimum target of the first wave (c) which is 847.92.

 

We will provide an updated initial projection for the end of wave -iii-. when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

We expect lower prices as we work on our second wave (c) drop.                                                                                                                     

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan1122gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan1122gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 30.54, closing at 30.51!

 

Wave *ii* is still underway and is becoming a triple 3 wave corrective pattern. We are now working on the third corrective pattern as shown on the 60 Min and Daily GDX Chart. Within this third pattern we completed all of wave ^a^ at the 28.90 low and all of wave ^b^ at the 32.08 high.

 

We are now be falling in wave ^c^ which has minimum target of 28.83. Within wave ^c^ it looks like wave $i$ ended at 31.20, all of wave $ii$ at 32.03 and now all of wave $iii$ at the 2961 low. WE are now rallying in wave $iv$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =30.18;

38.2% = 30.54.

 

We have now reached our 38.2% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave $iv$ and the start of another drop in wave $v$ and the completion of all of wave *ii*.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.98;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

More updates on Gold Stocks and Indices coming soon.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated December 31st,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 27.74. We are now falling in an irregular type wave -ii- correction which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.20;

61.8% = 18.41.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of a large rally in wave -iii-. Within wave -ii-, wave $c$ appears to have become an ending diagonal triangle, which could be complete at the 17.27 low. After wave -ii- ends we will provide our first projections for the end of wave -iii-.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 31st , 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated December 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan1122gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1810.00!

 

We continue our long correction in our wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Wave .d. ended at 1879.50.

 

We continue to work on wave .e., and within wave .e. it looks like all of wave ^a^ of .e. ended at the 1753.00 low, and all of wave ^b^ at the 1833.00 high. We are now falling in wave ^c^ of .e., which will complete all of wave .e. and our bullish wave -iv- triangle. The minimum target for wave ^c^ is the wave ^a^ low of 1753.00.

 

After wave ^c^, .e. and -iv- end we can expect a huge thrust higher in wave -v-, which will take gold to all time new highs.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

                            

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

                                                                                                                      

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan1122si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 22.71!

 

Wave ii has become more complex and is still underway. Wave i still ended at the 29.91 high, but within wave ii, it looks like wave (a) ended at 21.81 and wave (b) at 30.35. We are now falling in wave (c) which has become an ending diagonal triangle. Within that diagonal triangle we are now falling in wave -v- of (c) which a minimum target of the wave -iii- low of 21.41. Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We believe that within wave -v-, all of wave $a$ ended at the 21.41 low and all of wave $b$ at the 23.44 high. We are now falling in wave $c$ to complete all of wave -v- , (c) and ii. The minimum target for wave $c$ will be the wave $a$ low of 21.41.

 

Wave ii is still expected to at least reach our 50% retracement level before all wave ii ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan1122bond.png

  

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1.808%. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.739%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave flat correction pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low.

 

We have now updated our count within wave *b* of -ii- to suggest that it is still underway. Wave *b* is still a double 3 wave rally and within the second 3 wave pattern we are now rallying in our second wave *c*. We have now reached our minimum target for the end of this second wave *c* and are now waiting for confirmation that it is complete at the 1.808% high. It looks like wave -ii- is either going to become a flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

 

After wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Longer term our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).   

 

We have decided to move our stops to the 1.900% level.                          

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 1.900%

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.900%

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan1122spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan1122sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was initially sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4582.24, although by the close we had recovered most of those losses to close only marginally lower at 4670.29.  

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 16 points.

 

It now looks like wave (v) is going to extend and within wave (v), all of wave -i- ended at 4743.83 and all of wave -ii- at 4495.12. We should now be rallying again in wave -iii- which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 5247.31

 

We expect higher prices now in wave -iii- of (v), however, we must say this:

 

It appears that the Armageddon Support Line has held once again. It is now clear a solid weekly break and close below this will line indicate that major top has been made in the SP500.

 

We are watching this very carefully looking for a shorting opportunity!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan1122usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 96.23. After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 95.77!

 

All of wave (i) of iii ended at 89.17 and if that is the case we are now rallying in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We are watching a developing bullish triangle formation which started at the 96.94 high. If that observation is correct then once this bullish triangle ends we can expect one more rally in wave (ii) above the 96.94 high, before it ends. A break now below 95.54 would eliminate this triangle option. We appear to have held this level again in Friday’s drop off.

 

Based on the short term Intraday Chart pattern it looks like the USDX may have completed this bullish triangle formation at the 95.71 low. If that is the case then we should expect a sharp thrust higher before all of wave (ii) ends.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect the USDX to start to move lower again in wave (iii).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

                                                                                                                     

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan1122oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 77.83.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 79.66!

 

Wave i is still underway as shown on our Daily Crude Chart. We believe that we working on an expanding and extending wave (iv) of i bullish triangle. Within our triangle we may have completed wave $c$ at the 62.46 low. We are now rallying in wave $d$. Wave $d$ cannot trade above the wave $b$ high of 85.41 for this triangle formation to remain valid. Wave $c$ cannot trade below the wave $a$ low of 57.25 also.

 

Wave $c$ is complete at the 62.46 low and we are now rallying in wave $d$.

 

Based on the location of the upper trendline of our bullish wave (iv) triangle, crude could be heading to around the 83.00/83.50 level before all of wave $d$ ends.

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97 and all of wave -ii- at the 22.22 low. If that is the case we are now moving sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 38.50.

 

We appear to now be breaking out to the upside, with next major resistance being the 34.56 level

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:                                                                                                                     

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew