jan 12 morning post!





Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

Short Term Update:


After taking a small dip to 1177.00 in yesterday’s day session gold recovered and moved higher. In the overnight session that trend higher continued as we have now crossed the 1200.00 level reaching a high of 1207.10, at the time that this Post was being written.


Currently on the Intraday Chart the rallies in gold look impulsive and the setbacks corrective which suggest higher prices are still ahead.

THE GREAT NEWS: So far the first impulsive sequence STILL does NOT look complete at the 1207.10 high, but….


we need to be on guard for end of wave *i* soon, unless it extends.

As you can see on the Daily Gold Chart we have shown graphically what the current rally in gold looks like as we are still just working on wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.  


Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is :





Longer Term Update:


Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low. We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart showing our projections for the end of wave -iii-.  


Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00.




Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


Silver also took a bit of dip in yesterday’s day session reaching 16.60, but then recovered later. In the overnight session that trend higher continued as we reached a high of 17.02, in the overnight session, at the time that this Post was being written.


Like gold we should now expect silver to be rallying in a very sharp rally in wave -iii-.  Also like gold we should still be rallying in wave *i* of .i. of -iii-. We still expect higher prices, in the next couple of days, but are now on guard for the end of wave *i*.


Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is:





Like gold wave -iii- is silver will consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence, but we have not shown it on the Silver Chart as it will take the same form as we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart.


Long Term Update:


We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;


1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.


Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67




Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


Crude was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session as we reached a high of 53.24, at the time that this Post was being written.


As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete. We suspect that wave $b$ is now complete at the 55.24 high and we are now falling in our expected wave $c$ drop. Our idea that wave $c$ is going to becoming a 5 wave impulsive drop was eliminated in yesterday’s day session trading. Our current low for wave $c$ was 50.73, was is above our minimum target of 49.95. Either wave $c$ is becoming a diagonal triangle or something more bullish is happening to crude. For now we will stay with our current count, but have become a little skeptical in the short term 


Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.


Our update count for all of wave .iii. is now:


*i* = 49.36;


^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;


^i^ = 54.51;


$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ = 55.24;


!i! = 52.17;

!ii! = 54.30;

!iii! drop is now underway;

!iv! rally after wave !iii! ends.

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.


Some other projections:


.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83;


Suncor: Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.


Long Term Update:


We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27. We have attached our updated our Weekly Crude Chart.


Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80.




Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2

Short Term Update:


The S&P was higher in yesterday’s trading session.. In the overnight session the S&P Futures are down about 6 points, at the time that this Post was being written.


The S&P is now within a whisper of our projected end of for all of wave -iii- which is 2285.92, so we need to be on guard for end of the -iii- and the start of significant drop in wave -iv-. This stock market appears to have many similarities to the 1987 top, and we know how that rally ended.


The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.


Long Term Update:


Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2282.10 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.


Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops.




Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


After reaching a high of 102.96 in yesterday’s day session the USDX turned sharply lower. That drop continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 100.70, at the time that this Post was being written.    


On the Intraday Chart we can see a 5 wave impulsive drop from 103.81 to 101.30, so we are now expect a corrective rally for that drop. We have labeled the initial drop to 101.30 as wave *i* and the current rally is wave *ii*, which likely ended at the 102.96 high. The 102.96 high is just 10 ticks above our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave *ii*, which is shown below.. It looks like wave *iii* lower has now begun.


Retracement levels for wave *ii* are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 102.56;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 102.85.


Our current count for wave (c) and the start of iii is:


-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;


*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c ) and all of wave ii.


*i* = 101.30;

*ii* = 102.96;

*iii* drop is next after wave *ii* ends.


Projections for wave *iii* are:





Long Term Trading Update:


We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and it looks like all of wave ii ended at the 103.81 high.


Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.85.




Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 


Short Term Update:


NG was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching 3.221, but in the overnight session we have rallied back to 3.360 level, at the time that this Post was being written.


As you can see on the Daily NG Chart, we have a clear five wave impulsive rally from 1.61 to 3.37, which is then followed by a 3 wave correction that ended at the 2.55 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has much higher to go. We have an initial projection for the end of wave (iii) at 5.40.


The wave -ii- correction in NG looks to be complete at the 3.099 low, so we should now be starting a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide projections for the end of wave -iii- in the next day or so.


Our current count for all of wave C is:





-i- = 3.777, if complete;


*a* = 3.243;

*b* = 3.901;

*c*= 3.099, if complete, to complete all of wave -ii-.

-iii- is now underway.


Long Term Trading Update:


It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.


Active Trading Positions: We are long, risking to 2.54, but will move our stop to 3.090 soon.




GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792


Short Term Update:


The GDX has been trading sideways in the last couple of days, but we still expect higher prices ahead, as gold continues to rally in wave *i*. We will start labelling the internal wave structure of wave 3 after our first impulsive sequence ends.


The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture that we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:





As with gold and silver this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions.  


Long Term Update:


In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low also.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops.