JAN 12 WEEKLY CHARTS ACTION!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1220gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was ripped to da high of 1613.30, and closed the week at 1560.10. 

 

Wild action!!

                                                                               

On the Daily Gold Chart we have added our current internal count for wave *v* and believe that at least all of wave $iii$ of *v*, ended at the 1613.30 high.

 

If that is the case we are now falling in wave $iv$.

 

The other option is that only wave $i$ of *v* ended at the 1613.30 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$.

 

Retracement levels for both options are shown in our Daily Gold Chart. For either count we expect further weakness next week.

 

Regardless, our first projection for the end of wave *v* and .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40!                

                              

Active Positions: Long, almost without interruption from $1080… and with puts as stops!    

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1220si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was also initially sharply higher his past week as we reached a high of 18.89, before closing at 18.11, which was almost unchanged for the week.

                                                                  

Within wave .iii. we are now rallying in wave ^iii^, which has an initial target of:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44.      

 

Within wave ^iii^ all of wave ^i^ ended at the 18.89 high and we are now falling in wave ^ii^. Our retracement level for all of wave ^ii^ are shown in our daily Silver Chart. We expect some further weakness next week before all of wave ^ii^ ends.    

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 26.09.   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week as we reached a high of 1.900, closing at 1.825{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of our wave (iv) correction is still underway as it has become a complex 3 wave pattern, that includes a bullish wave *b* triangle formation, which could be complete at the 1.766{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

If this analysis is correct, we should be rallying in our wave *c* final thrust higher which should at least reach the 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high to complete all of wave (iv).

 

Once wave (iv) ends we expect a wave (v) drop to at least reach the 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low but more likely the 1.00{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1220oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially sharply higher this past week as we reached a high of 65.65, before giving up all of those gains plus a lot more!

 

The wild week featured a key weekly reversal lower!

 

We closed out the mayhem at 59.04.                             

 

Within wave (b) bearish triangle, wave .c. of (b), is complete at the 65.65 high and we are now falling in wave .d.. We expect wave .d. should at reach our lower red trendline that defines the boundaries of our bearish wave (b) triangle before it ends.

 

This level is around the 52.00/53.00 level.

 

Once wave .d. ends we expect another rally in wave .e. to complete all of the wave (b) bearish triangle.

 

We added to our short positions and will take profits at the end of wave .d..

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1220su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was higher this past week reaching a high of 34.50, closing at 34.28.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all or most of wave -c- of (ii) is complete at the 34.50 high and that we should start to move sharply lower in wave (iii) very soon.  

 

We shorted Suncor this week.

 

Longer term, our current count for Suncor is suggesting that we are now heading back to the wave a low of 13.10. We have completed wave b of B at the 42.27 high, and are now falling in wave c of B. This count is suggesting that crude will likely he heading back to the 26.05 low also, which is our preferred count in wave b also.

 

Wave c will likely be impulsive which means it will have a 5 wave structure on its way down.   

 

Active Positions: Short crude with a call as a stop. Short Suncor risking to $36.00!!                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1220su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 3282.99, closing at 3265.35.  

 

Our current preferred count is that wave v of V is not complete and we could now be heading substantiality higher.

 

It looks like wave v is subdividing and in this case we are rallying in wave -iii- of (iii), with wave -ii- likely ending at the 2825.51 low.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3711.83.

 

Our current bearish alternate count is that wave (b) has become a more complex double 3 pattern.

 

Active Positions: Short at 2950.00, with a call as a stop!

Editor Note:  When you get a big move against you, like has happened with SP500, the call options mitigate most of the losses.  When a big move goes WITH you, the call option cost soon becomes quite small… even… irrelevant.

 

The bottom line: options against your main play, when expected a big move… they work!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1220usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week, closing at 97.08.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) is now complete at the 99.33 high and that our wave (iii) drop has now started.

 

We need to see a sharp drop below our lower red trendline that is shown on our Weekly USDX Chart to convince us that al of wave (ii) is complete, at the 99.33 high.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 100.00!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1220cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was slightly lower this past week, closing at 582.35.

 

Our CDNX Weekly Chart to suggests that we are falling in wave -v-, which has minimum target of 487.01, which is the wave -iii- low, before all of wave B ends.

 

We have updated our current short term count for the CDNX to suggest that we are still working on wave .iv., as it has become a flat type correction.

 

Within wave .iv. we are now rallying -c- of .iv., which has a minimum target of 641.50, which is the wave -a- of .iv. high.

 

Once wave .iv. ends we still expect one more drop in wave .v. below the 487.01 low to complete all of wave B.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1220gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week, reaching 28.00, but closing at 28.45.

 

We continue to rally in wave (v), but it looks like all of wave -i- of (v) is complete at the 29.87 high and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which has retracement levels that are shown on our 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

The good news: We are only a little short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we should expect only a little more weakness next week, before all of wave -ii- ends!!

 

Our wave (v) rally that has a current target of 48.95, which is the wave 3 projected target as follows:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95.

 

Our alternate bullish count is suggesting that only wave -iv- of (iii) likely ended at the 25.98 low and that we are starting to rally in wave -v of (iii) which has a target of 36.42.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew