JAN 13 EOD UPDATE

Jan 13 Captain Ewave EOD Update

Gold:

Since making a high of 1244.30 in the overnight session gold has struggled, during today's day session, which is a little bit of a disappointment. It looks like it is going to take a day or so to get above the 1239 high. The good news is that on the intraday chart the wave structure is full of overlapping waves, which means correction. We are not sure that this correction is complete at the current low of 1227.50.

We added 2 long positons at 1239.10, and have raised our stops on all positions to 1167.20. Now long 7 spec futures contracts.

Crude:

 

Through an intraday post we indicated that the first signs of an end to wave iii of C may be at hand at the 44.21 low. It appears that we have had a five wave impulsive rally on the intraday chart from 44.21 to 46.17. In our Intraday Post that we provided incorrect numbers for our 50 and 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement levels. Sorry. The correct numbers are:

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 45.19;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 44.95.

The current low, after the high at 46.17 was made, at the time that this post was written was 45.11, which is within our retracement range. We might have missed this buying opportunity!

 St comments: well, that's why the pgen exists. You missed nothing.

In that same Intraday Post we recommended to buy 2 positions at 44.85, which should have been 45.02. with our risk being 44.20.

S&P:

Please click here now:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015jan13spewpm.png  

The Captain does not like irregular corrections. Crew members that mention "irregular" are usually sent to kitchen duty.

Anyhow, we were surprised by the sudden pop in the S&P at today's open. What happened was that wave .ii. did not end at 2038.53, as we had previously assumed, and we did revisit this level one more time to finally complete wave .ii. of -i- at 2056.93. An "irregular" correction is when wave *b* ends, in this case below the end of wave .i.. These patterns are very difficult to predict in real time. The attached updated 10 min chart tells the story. As you can see we have given up all of today's early morning rally, plus more.

It is likely that within wave .iii. we have progressed as follows:

*i* = 2008.25;

*ii* = 2028.93.

*iii* will likely start tomorrow.

Since wave .i. ended at 2038.33 and wave .ii at today's high of 2056.93, we can project the end of wave .iii. as follows;

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1988.60; This is our preferred target at the moment.

.iii. = 4.236.i. = 1946.37.

We remain short with our stops now lowered to 2057.00

USDX:

 

The USDX held a narrow range for most of today's day session trading, and with that we have no further comments to add to today's Morning Post.

We have repeated today's Morning Post comments here as follows:

"We can see a possible impulsive wave structure down from 92.50 to 91.72, followed by at corrective abc rally to the current highs, on the intraday charts. We will be watching this market closely today. Look for a possible intraday posting.

We will be shorting two positions at 91.70, and will be risking to 92.55"

 

NG:

 

No change to our previous comments on this market.

HUI/GDX:

Please click here now: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015jan13gdxewpm.png

 

Although we had a projection for the end of wave .iii at 21.97, we had thought that the HUI/GDX would continue higher, reaching the upper red trend line. As we indicated in today's morning Post we did have higher projections for the GDX in the 24.00 area. Anyhow, it appears that wave .iii. ended at 21.89, which is 8 ticks below our projection of 21.97.

We now appear to be in wave .iv. and through an intraday post we suggested that wave .iv. would likely retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave .iii. rally. These values are 20.96 and 20.38, respectively. The low today is 20.31, which is just a little below of 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 20.38. It could be possible that all of wave .iv is already over, although having one a 1 day correction is a bit of cause for concern. The HUI/GDX is a very strong market at the moment so corrections can be sharp and brief in time.

For the time being we will go with the idea that wave .iv. is complete at today's low of 20.31, but we also go with the possibility that wave .iv. will last a little longer. It could turn into a triangle also!

 

We have updated the count below to make the 60 min GDX chart:

(i) = 18.91;

(ii) = 17.16;

(iii):

-i- = 18.48;

-ii- = 18.76

-iii-:

.i. = 18.71;

.ii.:

*a* = 18.05:

*b* = 18.60;

*c* = 17.95, to complete all of wave *ii*:

.iii.:

*i* = 18.80;

*ii* = 18.40. Note that 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement is 18.38:

*iii*:

^i^ = 19.26;

^ii^ = 18.76;

^iii^ = 20.69:

^iv^ = 19.82:

^v^ = 20.67, to complete all of wave *iii*;

*iv*:

^a^ = 19.82;

^b^ = 20.52;

^c^ =  19.61, to complete all of wave *iv*.

*v* = 21.89, to complete all of wave .iii.;

.iv. = 20.31?, if complete.

.v. is set to begin.

We remain long all GDX positions.

Thanks