Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1219gold.png


Longer Term Update:


Gold traded sideways this past week, and closed slightly higher at 1287.85.


We continue to rally in a subdividing wave $iii$, where we continued to rally in a subdividing wave !iii!.


As indicated in our latest Morning Posts we have now adopted the much more bullish count where we believe that we only complete wave ?iii? of !iii! ends at the 1300.40 high and if that is the case then the current sideways trading in gold is our wave ?iv? correction.


Once wave ?iv? we expect gold to rally higher again in wave ?v? to complete all of wave !iii!, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart.


On the Intraday Chart it is now possible to see a completed wave ?iv? triangle pattern, after last Friday’s trading, but we know that triangles like to expand and extend.


We are still expecting the that USDX to move lower, which will result in gold accelerating higher.


Our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:


.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1447.20, but we have higher projections also.


Longer term, our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii-, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart, are:





Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!




Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1219si.png


Longer Term Update:


Silver was a touch lower this past week as we reached a low of 15.56, although we closed at 15.63.


Like gold we have now taken a much more bullish stance, and now believe that wave ^iii^ is still underway and heading to our next projected target of 16.94.


The next big challenge will be to break and close above our red weekly downtrend line that connects 21.23 and 17.35, that is shown on the Weekly Silver Chart.


On the Intraday Chart, silver has a completed bullish triangle formation after Friday’s trading, so if this triangle does not expand and extend then we should expect silver to thrust sharply higher next week.


Our updated first projection for the end of wave iii is:


iii = 1.618i = 26.09.


In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;


1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.


Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!


US 10 Year Bond Yield:


Longer Term Update:


The 10 Year US Bond Yield was sharply higher this past week as we reached a high of 2.748{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, closing this week at 2.701{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.


All of wave (i) is complete at the 3.248{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and that we continue to fall in a multi-month wave (ii) correction.


Our current internal wave structure wave (ii) is suggesting that we are falling in a 3 wave pattern of which we have now completed all of wave $iii$ of *a* at the 2.554{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and we are now rallying in wave $iv$.


The current wave $iv$ rally has already entered our 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, but we believe that wave $iv$ will take longer in time to complete, so we expect another week or so of development, before we start to fall again in wave $v$ to complete all of wave *a* of (ii).


Our retracement levels for all of wave (ii) are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.641{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.489{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.


In the lower term we are working on a larger wave iii rally that has an initial projection of 4.11{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, although it should take many months to get there.


The 10 Year Bond Yield reached a historic low of 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} on July 06, 2017, and we have now started to rally higher.


We expect over the next number of years, that US 10 Year Bond Yields will rally back to at least the 15.84{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level that was reached in September of 1981.


Active Positions: Flat.




Longer Term Update:


Weekly Crude Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1219oil.png

Crude was sharply higher again this past week as we reached a high of 53.31, closing at the 51.59 level.                                                                                       


We now show a double 3 wave corrective pattern from the all-time high of 147.27 to the 26.05 low and have labeled this drop as wave A.


We are now rallying in a complex wave B that will include a number of 3 wave patterns. We have multiple options for wave B as we have explained here previously and have adopted Option 1 below, as our preferred:


Option 1:


(a) = 51.67;

(b) triangle = 45.58;

(c) =  76.90, if complete, to complete just wave a of our first abc pattern, within wave B;


In this option, since wave a is a 3 wave pattern then the wave b drop is going either be a flat or irregular type correction that will see crude fall back the vicinity of 26.05 or even below it before it ends. Wave b could also become a triangle.


Wave (a) ended at the 42.36 low, and we are now rallying in a corrective wave (b) rally a shown on the Weekly Crude Chart. If we assume that wave (b) will be a just a simple 3 wave pattern, then we are getting close to completing wave -a- of (b). Upon completion of wave -a- we expect a wave -b- drop that should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -a- rally. This is shown graphically on our Daily Crude Chart.




Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1219su.png


Suncor was higher this past week reaching a high of 30.82.


Our current count for Suncor is suggesting that we are now heading back to the wave a low of 13.10.


We have completed wave b of B at the 42.27 high, and are now falling in wave c of B.


This count is suggesting that crude will likely he heading back to the 26.05 low also, which is our preferred count in wave b also.


Wave c will likely be impulsive which means it will have a 5 wave structure on its way down. Wave (i) ended at the 25.81 low, and we are now rallying in wave (ii). Wave (ii) is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) drop, with those retracement levels being shown on the Suncor Weekly Chart.


Active Positions: Long crude with put at 57.00 as a stop.                                    




Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1219sp.png


Longer Term Update:


The SP500 as higher this past week reaching a high of 2597.82.   


We updated our count within wave (iii), this past week to suggest that only wave -i- ended at 2346.58 and that we are now rallying in wave -ii- are shown on the Weekly SP500 Chart. We should be getting close to completing all of wave -ii-.


Upon completion of wave -ii- we expect a very sharp drop in wave -iii- of (iii) as shown on the Weekly SP500 Chart.


Our first and second projections for the end of wave (iii) are :


(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2256.01;

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 1919.69.


Active Positions: Very Short.




Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1219usd.png


Longer Term Update:


The USDX was lower this past week as we reached a low of 94.64, as we closed at the 95.27 level.


We are now be falling in the early stages of wave (iii), as shown on the Weekly USDX chart. We seem to still be missing the 97.72 high data point on the USDX Weekly Chart.


We will provide our first projections for the end of wave (iii) when we are sure that all of wave (ii) is complete.


Active Positions: Short, risking to 97.75!





Longer Term Update:


NG was sharply higher this past week as we reached a low of 3.17.  


It is looking like NG just completed another 3 wave rally from 1.61 to the current high of 4.93, and that we are now starting to work on another 3 wave drop that will end at least at the 1.61 low to complete all of wave B.


We have shown our initial thoughts on this count in our Monthly NG Chart. We will continue to review the internal working of this updated count in our Daily NG Chart in the days ahead.


Active Positions: Flat.





Longer Term Update:


The GDX was almost unchanged this past week.


Looking at the Weekly GDX Chart you can see that we are working on a multi-year wave C rally which is consistent with all of the other counts that we have in the HUI, XAU and most gold stocks.


All of the gold indices and gold stock should have now completed their respective wave 2 corrections.


Our current trading strategy is to buy and hold gold stocks and associated indices to capture all of the upcoming wave 3 rally. Wave 3 should last a year or two and be very sharply higher in price. In the case of the GDX this target is 48.60.


This week we updated our Daily and 6o Min GDX Charts to show that we are now completing a very large wave *iv* bullish triangle, which may have ended on Friday.


If that is the case we should expect a very large thrust higher in wave *v* that should reach our wave -iii- target of at least 23.49. Of course we cannot rule the possibility that this wave *iv* bullish triangle could expand and extend which would just delay the wave *v* thrust higher.


We expect significantly higher prices next week, if we get our wave *v* thrust higher.


A major low in all gold stocks and related indices has occurred, and Subscribers are encouraged to position themselves accordingly.


Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!