jan 14 end of week post!

CAPTAIN EWAVE END OF WEEK POST! 

 

 Gold:

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Gold was higher this week, as we continued to work on our first impulsive sequence within wave .i. of -iii-, out of the wave –ii- low.

 

In Friday’s day’s session, gold dropped to a low of 1187.50.

 

On the Intraday Chart, the drop from 1207.20 to 1187.50 is a completed 3 wave drop, so we should see gold continue to move higher next week, still within wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.  

 

Currently, on the Intraday Chart, the rallies in gold look impulsive, and the setbacks corrective, which suggest higher prices are still ahead. So far, the first impulsive sequence does NOT look complete at the 1207.10 high, but we need to be on guard for the end of wave *i* soon, unless it extends.

 

As you can see on the Daily Gold Chart, we have shown graphically what the current rally in gold looks like, as we are still just working on wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- are:

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

.i.:

*i* = 1207.20, if complete;

*ii* correction is next, after wave *i* ends.

 

When wave *i* ends, we should expect wave *ii* to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *i* rally.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low. We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart, showing our projections for the end of wave -iii-.  

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24SILVER&p=D&yr=2&mn=1&dy=20&id=p89436590663&a=465799974&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher this week with gold, as we continued to work on wave ^i^ of .i. of -iii-, within this market.

 

In Friday’s day session, silver reached a low of 16.61.

 

On the Intraday Chart, the drop from 17.02 to 16.61 looks to be a completed 3 wave drop. Once, this correction ends, we expect silver to keep moving higher, likely still within wave ^i^.

 

Like gold, we should now expect silver to be rallying in a very sharp rally in wave -iii-.  Also, like gold, we should still be rallying in wave ^i^ of .i. of -iii-. We still expect higher prices, in the next couple of days, but are now on guard for the end of wave ^i^.

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- are:

-iii-=1.618-i-=27.91;

-iii-=2.618-i-=35.47.

 

Like gold, wave -iii- in silver will consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence, but we have not shown it on the Silver Chart, as it will take the same form, as we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

^i^ = 17.02, if complete;

^ii^ drop is next after wave ^i^ ends.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980, and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993.

 

We are now working on wave V, and within wave V, we have the following count:

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note: Wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally;

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2


Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower this week, although the drop was in the formation that we had expected.

 

In Friday’s day session, crude was generally quiet, as we held the 52.30 low.

 

On the Intraday Chart, the drop from 53.50 to 52.30 looks corrective, which suggest higher prices are ahead, which is not what our current wave $c$ drop is suggesting.

 

As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart, we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete.

 

We suspect that wave $b$ is now complete at the 55.24 high, and we are now falling in our expected wave $c$ drop.

 

Our idea that wave $c$ is going to become a 5 wave impulsive drop was eliminated in yesterday’s day session trading. Our current low for wave $c$ was 50.73, which is above our minimum target of 49.95. Either, wave $c$ is becoming a diagonal triangle, or something more bullish is happening to crude.

 

For now, we will stay with our current count, but have become a little skeptical in the short term. Crude needs to turn down now, for our current count to remain valid. 

 

Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.

 

Our updated count for all of wave .iii. is now:

*i* = 49.36;

*ii*:

^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;

*iii*:

^i^ = 54.51;

^ii^:

$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ = 55.24;

$c$:

!i! = 52.17;

!ii! = 54.30;

!iii! drop is now underway;

!iv! rally after wave !iii! ends;

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Some other projections:

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83.

 

Suncor

 

Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high.

 

If that is the case, then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27. We have attached our updated Weekly Crude Chart.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was marginally lower this week.

 

In Friday’s day session, the S&P was slightly higher.

 

The S&P is now within a whisper of our projected end for all of wave -iii-, which is 2285.92, so we need to be on guard for the end of the -iii-, and the start of significant drop in wave -iv-.

 

This stock market appears to have many similarities to the 1987 top, and we know how that rally ended.

 

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.

 

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2282.10 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this week, as we are working on the assumption that all of wave ii is complete at the 103.81 high.

 

In Friday’s day session, the USDX was higher reaching 101.67.

 

On the Intraday Chart, the rally from 100.70 to 101.67 now looks like 3 wave pattern, which is bearish, so we expect that the USDX will be heading lower next week.  

 

On the Intraday Chart, we can see a 5 wave impulsive drop from 103.81 to 101.30, so we now expect a corrective rally for that drop.

 

We have labeled the initial drop to 101.30, as wave *i*, and the current rally is wave *ii*, which likely ended at the 102.96 high. It looks like wave *iii* lower has now begun.

 

Our current count for wave (c), and the start of iii are:

-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;

-v-:

*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c), and all of wave ii;

iii:

.i.:

*i* = 101.30;

*ii* = 102.96;

*iii* drop is next after wave *ii* ends.

 

Projections for wave *iii* are:

*iii*=1.618*i*=98.88;

*iii*=2.618*i*=96.36.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern, and it looks like all of wave ii ended at the 103.81 high.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.85!

 

NG:

 

Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 

 

Short Term Update:

 

Wave -ii- in NG ended this week at the 3.099 low, and we have started a very powerful wave -iii- rally.

 

In Friday’s day session, NG was generally flat to sideways. Expect higher prices next week.

 

As you can see on the Daily NG Chart, we have a clear 5 wave impulsive rally from 1.61 to 3.37, which is then followed by a 3 wave correction that ended at the 2.55 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has much higher to go. We have an initial projection for the end of wave (iii) at 5.40.

 

The wave -ii- correction in NG looks to be complete at the 3.099 low, so we should now be starting a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide projections for the end of wave -iii- in the next day, or so.

 

We have moved our stops to 3.090.

 

Our current count for all of wave C is:

1:

(i)=3.37;

(ii)=2.55;

(iii):

-i- = 3.777, if complete;

-ii-:

*a* = 3.243;

*b* = 3.901;

*c*= 3.099, if complete, to complete all of wave -ii-;

-iii- is now underway.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:  -iii-=1.618-i-=5.090.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low.

 

If this analysis is correct, then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long, risking to 3.090!

 

GDX:

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX continues to move sideways, but we still expect higher prices ahead, as gold continues to rally in wave *i*. We will start labelling the internal wave structure of wave 3 after our first impulsive sequence ends.

 

The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow, the same graphically picture that we have shown, on the Daily Gold Chart.

 

Our first and second projection for the end of wave 3 is:

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98.

 

As with gold and silver, this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions.  

 

Long Term Update:

 

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79, and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low also.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!