Gold held its overnight gains after the Swiss announcement and made a higher high during the day session, hitting 1267.00. We will likely close above the previous resistance at 1255.60. After that resistance is taken out we expect that a run to the 1295 area will be the next big event!


No change to current 7 long positions, and have raised our stop to 1204.00!



It appears that crude has completed a five wave rally from 44.21 to today's high of 51.20 as follows:


.i.= 46.76;

.ii.= 45.02:

.iii. = 49.54;

.iv. = 47.17;

.v. = 51.20. this completes wither a wave (a) or a wave (i).

If wave iii ended at 44.20, then this impulsive rally should be followed by a correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of wave (a) or (i), which would be:

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} =47.70;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.87.

The low today, at the time this post was written is 46.13, so we were stopped out of our 4 long positions, with a profit! The 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement is 45.70.


We still believe that wave iii ended at 44.21, so we are re-entering this market with 2 long positions at the market, risking to 44.20!




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We provided an intraday update on the S&P suggesting that wave .iv. of -i- likely ended at 2031.25. The attached updated 10 min chart shows that top.

However, since that top was made the S&P did fall today, but the 10 min chart clearly shows that the wave structure is full of overlapping waves. This type of overlapping structure at this location of a 5 wave impulsive drops can mean only 2 things:

  • Wave .v. is a diagonal triangle, as we have shown on the attached chart. Within that diagonal triangle we only need drop in wave *v* to at least the wave .iii. low of 1988.44 to complete the minimum requirements for a completed wave -i-, or;

  • Wave .iv. did not end at 2031.25 and that we are working on a wave .iv. triangle, with only wave *a* ending at 2031.25, wave *b* at 1992.53, and waves *c*, *d* and *e* to go,  to complete the entire triangle formation. After the wave .iv. triangle ends we will drop in wave .v. to complete all of wave -i-.

Our preferred option is the first and is labelled on the updated 10 min chart!

Upon completion of wave -i- the S&P should rally between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- drop, so we plan to take profits on our 4 shorts positions at 1987.00. Based on the close we might get filled during the overnight session!

We remain short 4 positions and have lowered our stop to 2022.00.

 (st comments: The Captain DID just get filled! KACHINGO!!!!!!!!!!!)



This USDX does not want to die.

After the wide swings in the overnight session that USDX did recover, coming to within a few ticks of stopping us out before turning lower. We are a bit uncomfortable with the extent of the retracement after the 92.76 high was made, but we are going to hold all of our short positons, risking to 92.77.

We still believe that the high at 92.76, is finally the end of our wave iii of C.

We are short 7 big spec positions, risking to 92.77.




As we suggested in today's Morning Post, we thought that most or all of our first impulsive wave sequence was coming to an end. It looks like this occurred at today's high of 3.34. For the time being we will call this first impulsive wave sequence wave -i- of iii of C.

Therefore, the next big event will be a wave -ii- correction that retraces our usual 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} as follows:

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.06;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.99.

Wave -ii- should consist of at least one .a., .b., .c. pattern. It appears that we fell in wave .a. to 3.06, in today's day session and are now rallying in wave .b. We should see one more drop in wave .c. to at least the wave .a. low of 3.06 to complete all of wave -ii-.

Recommendation: Buy 3 NG at 3.03, risking to 2.77.

There is an outside chance that all of wave -ii- ended at 3.06 and in that case NG is going substantially higher, as the next big event.



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As expected, the HUI and GDX were up sharply today, in line with the large rally in gold. It seems that wave .iv. has ended at 19.88 and we are well within wave .v. of -iii-. Based on that we can provide some projections for the end of wave .v. and wave -iii- as follows:

Projections for the end of wave .v.:

.v. = 1.618(wave .iii. - end of wave -ii-)= 19.88 + 1.618 x (21.89-17.76) = 26.56

Projections for the end of wave -iii-:

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 22.01;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 23.34;

-iii- = 4.236-i- = 25.47.

Our minimum target for the end of wave .v. is the wave .iii. high of 21.89.

We repeat this sentence from the last couple of Posts:

"Since the wave .iv. correction was so deep we cannot rule the possibility that the GDX has subdivided further. We will monitor this situation and provide and update as appropriate. This possible subdivision really means nothing and if it is true it only means that the HUI/GDX is going to rally higher, and faster!"

We remain long all GDX positions.