JAN 16 EOD UPDATE

Gold:

As indicated in today's Morning Post, it appeared on the intraday chart that gold was working on a corrective triangle formation. The expected outcome of that formation would be a thrust higher. We also suggested that the thrust would likely be in the $25 to $30 range. Well, the triangle ended at 1257.40 and has so far pushed higher to 1282.20. This is a $24.80 rally, which is just short of our lower range of $25. It is not clear whether this triangle thrust is over yet.

 St comments: ok let's not call the Captain out over $24.80 vs $25, even though he calls himself out on it. That's how meticulous some engineers are, and I know, because my Dad was a "gear" too.

This weekend we will be updating our internal wave count in gold starting from the wave .ii. low of 1167.30. We will provide that update when completed. Our current target remains the 1295.00 level. It is interesting to note that gold has pretty much divorced itself from the surging USDX, but imagine the rally in gold, once the USDX does top out.

No change to current 7 long positions but have raised our stop to 1204.00.

Crude:

 

We are working on the assumption that all of wave iii ended at 44.21 and that the rally from 44.21 to 51.20 was either a wave (i) or wave (a) within wave iv.

In today's day session we added to our long crude positions, and we were filled at 47.95. We are now long 4 positions, risking to the wave iii low of 44.21. Crude had a sideways day to but, we believe that the rallies look impulsive and the setbacks look corrective on the intraday charts. That supports our view that crude is going higher, although there is a remote chance that we could revisit 45.95, on more time, before m
oving higher.

 

We are long 4 positions, risking to 44.20.

 

S&P:

 

Please click here now:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015jan16spewpm.png

 

Today as expected the S&P appears to have completed all of wave -i- of (iii), as the attached updated 10 min chart shows. In yesterday's End of Day Post we were not sure whether wave .iv. of -i- had ended at 2031.25, or whether wave .iv. was becoming a triangle. Our preferred analysis was based on wave .iv. ending at 2031.25 and wave .v. becoming a diagonal triangle. This analysis appears to be correct as the diagonal triangle ended at 1988.12, just 32 ticks below our minimum requirements for a completed five wave drop from 2064.43. Also in an intraday post today, we confirmed that wave -i- had ended at 1988.14.

We took significant profits in the overnight session, on our short positions.

The next big event in the S&P will be a wave -ii- of (iii) rally which should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- drop. Those values are:

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2026.28;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2035.28

As a minimum wave -ii- should consist of at least one .a., .b., .c. pattern ,but it is much too early to say how wave -ii- will unfold. We have decided not to trade this rally.

USDX:

 

As expected we were stopped out of our long USDX positions as the USDX just keeps going higher. Unfortunately on this market we have missed the mark and will need to regroup. Our overall view is that this rally is still part of wave ii of C.

 

NG:

 

In today's Morning Post we provided updated long term and short term NG charts, indicated our belief that wave ii of C had finally ended at 2.78.

In today's overnight session we were filled on 3 long positions at 3.03, risking to the wave ii low of 2.77. During today's day session, NG revisited the 3.03 low again, hitting a low of 3.02, before moving higher, reaching a high of 3.23. The low at 3.02 is likely the end of wave -ii- and we should now be rallying in wave -iii-. Once we are sure that wave -ii- is over at 3.02, we will provide projections for the end of wave -iii-. The rally from 3.02 to 3.23 was impulsive looking and the drop from 3.23 to 3.11 was corrective looking on the intraday chart. This supports a bullish view.

 

We are long 3 NG positions at 3.03, risking to 2.77.

HUI/GDX:

 

Please click here now:

 https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015jan16x1ew.png

We had several intraday posts today. In summary we are rallying in wave .v. of  -iii- and have exceeded our -iii-=2.618-i- target of 21.22, so our next target is the -iii-=4.236-i- target is 23.35. Today's high was 22.23. Although reaching these targets is not mandatory for EWave analyses most times one of them is achieved. In terms of EWave analysis we have satisfied our minimum target for the end of wave .v. and -iii-, by trading above 21.89, which was the wave .iii. high.

We also note that the HUI and XAU have broken above their multi-year down trend lines which is a significant event for the gold and gold stock bulls!!!

We remain long all GDX positions, with stops at 18.80.                     

St comments: Captain Ewave blew the ball out of the park, and he told me on the phone today, "this site, and the charts I have to do for it, is getting me more dialed into the vibe of the ewaves, I'm really in a grove now". I agree, and add him to the mammoth actions of China, and the supreme actions of India, and you may be on the ultimate bull era roll!

Thanks!!