JAN 16 MORNING POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE DAILY CHARTS UPDATE

 

Gold:

 

Daily Gold Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan1618gold.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Gold traded lower in yesterday’s trading session and again in the overnight session, in what appears to be a small corrective pattern on the Intraday Chart.  

 

For the time being we are assuming that wave ^i^ is still underway, but we note that have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed impulsive sequence, which could be all of wave ^i^, at the current high of 1344.90.

 

If wave ^i^ continues higher a possible run to 1362.40 or even the 1378.00 highs are still possible, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart.

 

Upon completion of wave ^i^, we should expect a wave ^ii^ correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we are sure that wave ^i^ is complete.

 

Our first projection of the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii*=1.618*i*=1495.20.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short term traders that have taken profits can now wait until wave ^ii^ develops and ends to re-enter long. We plan to stay long and add at the end of wave ^ii^.   

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops, and will add at the end of wave ^ii^!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan1618si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver had a volatile trading session in the overnight period as we briefly spiked lower to reach a low of 16.82, before recovering to be currently trading at the 17.09 level. We are assuming that wave ^i^ is also extending in silver, with a possible quick move to the 18.29 level, as shown on the Daily Silver Chart, before it ends. The spike low might be suggesting that wave ^i^ is coming to an end, however.

 

Upon completion of wave ^i^ we expect to see a wave ^ii^ correction, that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we are sure that wave ^i^ is complete.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. =  22.03.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short term traders who took profits can wait until wave ^ii^ develops and ends before entering long again. We plan to hold and add at the end of wave ^ii^.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan1618oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude rallied to marginal new high of 64.89 in the overnight session, but that does not change our overall analysis for this market.  We have reached our upper red trendline as shown on the Daily Crude Chart, so if our current analysis is correct, we suspect all of wave $v$ and ^c^ and *b* is nearing completion.

 

We need to now be on guard for a major top in crude, and are now waiting for that confirmation.

 

The rally from the wave *a* of .ii. low of 39.19 is not impulsive looking, so we are still expecting that we are correcting in a complex wave .ii. pattern. If this observation is correct then crude will be heading back to the 39.19 low again, once this current corrective pattern ends.

 

Suncor: We moved higher within a complex wave .b. rally and have reached a high of 38.39. We continue to watch for confirmation that all of wave .b. is complete at the current high, and that wave .c. lower is now underway. If wave *b* in crude is complete at the 64.77 high then wave .b. is Suncor is complete at the 38.39 high and we should now be starting wave .c. lower.

 

Trading Recommendation: Aggressive traders should be short crude now with a 65.00 call as stop.  

 

Active Positions: We are now short, and have added to our short positions with calls as a stops. We will go long Suncor at 26.00!

 

S&P:

 

Daily SP500 Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan1618sp.png
Short Term Update:

 

The S&P continues to move higher, almost gapping higher very day now. It looks today’s trading will be no different.

 

This market is even ignoring a possible US Government shutdown!!

 

This market is in danger of a very big collapse, as many indicators are very stretched…. and getting more stretched as this market moves higher. If our current analysis is correct, we should expect to see a very large drop in the S&P… 100 plus points in the near future.      

 

This is a now scary market for the bulls from an EWaves analysis point of view.

 

Trading Recommendation: Stay short and use calls as stops.

 

Active Positions: Very Short with calls at various levels as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan1618usd1.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was marginally higher in the overnight session, but on the Intraday Chart the rally looks corrective. Once this corrective rally ends, the USDX is expected to continue to move lower again.

 

Our first projections for the end of wave $iii$ are:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 89.94;

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 87.30.

 

We expect further losses, in the days ahead.

 

Active Positions: Flat

 

NG:

 

Daily NG Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan1618ng.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was marginally lower in the overnight session, as we should be working on wave *iii* of -c- of (b), as shown on the Daily NG Chart.  Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 3.61. Expect further gains.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long, with a stop at 2.74.

 

Active Positions: Long now, with a stop at 2.74, with a final target of 3.90.

 

GDX:

 

GDX Daily Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan1618gdx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

With wave ^i^ in gold now extending, we should assume that wave -i- in the GDX will also extend, as shown on the Daily GDX Chart. Wave -i- does have the potential to rally to the 25.50/26.00 level.

 

When wave -i- does end we should expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the end entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 32.81.

 

We expect the wave iii will consist of a clear 5 wave impulsive pattern, of which we are now working on wave (i) of that pattern.

 

Based on that we should expect the following from our current gold stocks/indices:

 

Kinross: Uncertain here. Nested bullish waves might be in play here.

Barrick: Major low at 13.28, and we should now be heading sharply higher.

Newmont: Higher with nested bullish waves in play here.

SSR: Wave 2 still looks to be underway. Wave 1 ended at 19.53, back in July, 2016.

HUI: Higher now. See Monthly Chart

XAU: Higher now. See Monthly Chart.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!